The US midterm elections will be held in five days. The Senate is up for grabs and there is a strong possibility that, come January, Republicans will be the majority in both houses of Congress. The over-riding question for the election is: Will the vast sums of money being spent by the Chamber of Commerce, the Koch brothers and other conservative groups along with voter suppression laws and tactics in Republican controlled states beat back the get-out-the-vote effort being mounted by Democrats and progressive organizations? Too bad US elections aren't more like those in Brazil or Australia where voting is mandatory for citizens of legal age. Oh, that's right, in our country there are some intent on making sure others do not easily exercise their democratic right to vote or, preferably, at all.
I've been calling progressive voters in swing states in MoveOn's get-out-the-vote effort. Reactions range from enthusiasm to apathy to weariness to just hanging up the phone. And these are the progressive voters! This week I've called voters in Colorado and New Hampshire - two states that voted for Obama in 2012 but whose Senate seats are "in play" and could easily be lost to Republicans. If, as has been predicted for the past couple of months, the Democrats do lose control of the Senate, at least we know that we tried to get people to the polls. There are still a few days left and if you want to help out, you can do so at the MoveOn Shift Sign-Up page. The system uses a "Hub-Dialer" and a brief training session is held at the start of each shift.
Wednesday night, the blue-state San Francisco Giants beat the red-state Kansas City Royals. It was the third time in five years that the Giants had won the World Series. That they did so was due in large part to their 25 year-old pitching ace, North Carolina native Madison Bumgarner. Bumgarner now ranks as the all-time World Series ERA leader with an incredible 0.25 Earned Run Average. For comparison, pitching greats Sandy Koufax, Christy Mathewson and Mariano Rivera have career World Series ERA's between 0.95 and 0.99. What does this have to do with the elections? Probably nothing but, like many sports fans and ballplayers, I am slightly superstitious. Could this Giant victory be an omen of the Dems holding onto the Senate? Could Kay Hagan retain her North Carolina Senate seat? Or does the Giants' victory predict an outcome similar to the 2010 mid-terms, when the Giants also won the World Series. That year marked the biggest loss of Democratic Congressional seats in seven decades.
Tomorrow is Halloween. Halloween is an especially appropriate holiday for Republicans in an election year when their fear-mongering reaches a fever pitch. Is there anything the Republicans and their media mouthpieces don't want you to be afraid of? Death panels, a national gun registry, crime, Ebola, Guantanamo closing, immigrants, Muslims, people of color exercising their right to vote, people of color...the list is nearly endless. No, like most of the Republican agenda, these fears are just bullshit. What I find much more worrisome is the specter of total Republican control of Congress. Not so much because it will make an immediate, drastic change in our lives - it won't...Republicans already control the House and our centrist President Obama can serve as a firewall against any truly insane actions. Rather we should worry because of what a Republican victory in the Senate would say about the gullibility and apathy of the American electorate. True, there have been enormous roadblocks thrown in the path of democracy by way of Supreme Court voting rights and campaign financing decisions, by rampant gerrymandering, and by voter suppression. But these all happened because the conservative Republican agenda won in past elections, resulting in the court appointments and state legislatures that have turned American democracy into one that caters to the interests of the ruling class and where income inequality is among the greatest in the developed world. Republicans have done nothing positive in the four years they have been in the House majority. Congressional approval ratings are in the 11-12% range. And yet Republicans are on the doorstep of total Congressional control and all that means for Federal Court appointments. A scary thought indeed.
In the end, the Senate races may come down to something like the bottom of the ninth in the final game of the World Series. The Giants up by one run, two outs, a man on third, and Bumgarner on the mound, pitching his fifth inning of relief on just two days' rest, Let's hope the result is as good for the country as Bumgarner's final pitch was for the Giants.
Showing posts with label 2014 elections. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 2014 elections. Show all posts
Thursday, October 30, 2014
Monday, October 6, 2014
THE question for the 2014 midterms: How can Democrats hold the Senate?
It's one month until the 2014 midterm elections. Much has changed since the 2010 midterms, the first held after the infamous Citizens United decision. In 2013 the Supreme Court conservatives gutted the Voting Rights Act. In their 2014 McCutcheon decision, they completed their Citizens United work to allow unlimited amounts of cash to be spent to influence elections. The well-organized and well-funded Republican campaign attacking voting rights bore fruit across the country - 22 mostly Republican-controlled states have passed restrictive voting laws. The House districts gerrymandered by state governments controlled by Republicans after the 2010 census and elections make it a foregone conclusion that Republicans will control the House of Representatives for the foreseeable future. This will happen in spite of Congress' 11 percent approval rating and in spite of Republicans' utter lack of programs to help the country (no jobs bill, failure to extend long-term unemployment benefits, cuts to social programs, no comprehensive action on immigration reform or the environment or gun control, a government shutdown, etc., etc.,) As for the state governor races, the Democrats may pick up a handful of seats held by Republicans but perhaps not enough to put them in the majority. The only remaining question on the November election results is: "How can the Democrats retain control of the Senate?" (For more detail on the recent polls for the House and state Governor races, see below.)
The Senate races are key for the Democrats. Democrats and Independents who caucus with them hold a 55-45 majority. There are 21 Democratic and 15 Republican seats to be decided. Loss of the Senate majority would ensure an end to what's left of Obama's agenda and, just as importantly, an end to any hope for progressive or even moderate appointments to the judiciary. Republicans continue to find ways to slow or prevent the approval of Obama's judicial nominees in the current Congress even with the Democratic majority in the Senate. There are currently 63 judicial vacancies in the Federal courts. It is unlikely that the Senate will be able to confirm judges for even a quarter of these vacancies before the next Congress is seated.
In August, I looked at the key seats in play in red or swing states currently with a Democratic incumbent or retiring Senator. I concluded then that the Senate would be evenly split between Democrats and Republicans and that Democrats would barely hold onto a "majority" by the grace of the Vice-Presidential tie-breaking vote. Here's an update on those races based on more recent polls. The August poll results are shown in parentheses. The end result is one seat (Alaska) swings from Democratic to Republican.
Louisiana - Cassidy (R) 48.0% (46.8%) v. Landrieu (D) 43.4% (45.8%) - Republican lead up by 3.6%.
Alaska - Sullivan (R) 45.7% (41.0%) v Begich (D) 41.0% (44.0%) - Republican lead of 4.7% in October vs. Democratic lead of 3% in August
Arkansas - Cotton (R) 45.8% (47.4%) v. Pryor (D) 42.2% (43.8%) - Republican lead remains same as in August.
North Carolina - Hagan (D) 45.0% (45.8%) v. Tillis (R) 40.8% (44.0%) - Democratic lead up by 4.2%.
Virginia - Warner (D) 49.3% (51.0%) v. Gillespie 35.7% (33.7%) - Democratic lead down by 3.7%
Montana - Daines (R) 54.0% (51.7%) v. Walsh (D) 35.0% (38.0%) - Republican landslide
South Dakota - Rounds(R) 40.3% (44%) v. Weiland (D) 27.7% (29.5%) - Republican lead still in double digits
Iowa - Ernst (R) 44.6% (44.8%) v. Braley (D) 41.8% (44.0%) - Republican lead up by 2%
Michigan - Peters (D) 44.0% (43.8%) v. Land (R) 37.5% (39.2%) - Democratic lead up by 1.9%
But there's more..since August, two Democratic candidates from "blue" states - Udall in Colorado and Shaheen in New Hampshire - have fallen into close races with several recent polls showing them losing in November. If we assume the loss of at least one of these seats, then in these 11 key Senate races, Democrats will hold onto 4 seats and Republicans would capture 7. This would give Republicans a 52-48 majority in the Senate.
So how can a Republican takeover of the Senate be prevented?
(1) Vote.
(2) Canvass.
Facts and being on the right side of issues will never overcome the fears, lies and, at times, hatred being generated by the right-wing echo chamber. These drums have been beating since Obama won the Democratic nomination in 2008. By 2010, the lies about the Affordable Care Act, about the government coming for your guns, about the "failure" of the stimulus, etc., etc., had taken firm hold in the American political psyche. There's no turning that around in one month.
But Dems can still "get out the vote". Turnout will be critical if Democrats are to retain control of the Senate. But mid-term elections have notoriously poor turnout. Add to this the voter suppression laws that went into effect in many of the "Senate-crucial" states and the task in front of Democrats becomes daunting. If Democrats are to have any chance to hold the Senate, the electorate of 2014 needs to look like the electorate of 2008 rather than the electorate of 2010. Canvass, canvass, canvass. And, when you're thoroughly exhausted, canvass some more.
A number of organizations have set up "get out the vote" and "protect the vote" efforts. If you are in a state with a key Senate race, check with your local Democratic Committee or ACLU office. If you, like me, are in a safely Democratic state, volunteer for telephone canvassing shifts. Here's a link to the MoveOn effort:
MoveOn Home Shift signup - you can sign up for 2-1/2 hour shifts here
http://pol.moveon.org/2014calls/home_shift_signup.html?id=102563-4769646-0RY74Qx&t=5
And, of course, vote and encourage all like-minded progressives to vote.
ACLU Voter Information Page
Related
House of Representatives and Governor Races
Currently the Republicans hold a 34 seat majority in the House. Looking at the polls in August, I concluded that the best Democrats could hope for this year would be to reduce the Republican majority to 25 seats, but a more likely figure is that the Republicans majority would increase to 43 seats. So the more likely scenario would be that Republicans will pick up 9 seats in next month's elections. I see no reason to change that conclusion based on more recent polls, which show no noticeable change in voter sentiment.
In the same post, I looked at five governor's races - Florida, Wisconsin, Texas, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. The governors of these states are all currently Republicans. Republicans currently govern 29 of 50 states. The conclusion now is the same as the conclusion then. Democrats should be able to pick up a few governor seats - but don't expect a dramatic change. (August poll results are in parentheses.)
Florida - Crist (D) 43.4% (43.8%) v. Scott (R) 42.0% (42.5%) Democratic lead grew by 0.1%. Tossup.
Wisconsin - Walker (R) 47.8% (47.0%) v. Burke (D) 46.0% (46.3%) Republican lead grew by 1.1%. Tossup but moving towards Republican.
Texas - Abbott (R) 52.0% (50.5%) v. Davis (D) 39.3% (36.8%) Republican lead shrunk by 0.5% but still firmly Republican.
Ohio - Kasich (R) 54.0% (47.0%) v. FitzGerald (D) 32.8% (38.8%) - Republican lead grew by 12%. Republican landslide.
Pennsylvania - Wolf (D) 52.0% (52.0%) v. Tom Corbett (R) 36.1% (39.0%) - Democratic lead grew by 2.9%. Democratic victory.
Polling information in this post is from the Real Clear Politics website.
The Senate races are key for the Democrats. Democrats and Independents who caucus with them hold a 55-45 majority. There are 21 Democratic and 15 Republican seats to be decided. Loss of the Senate majority would ensure an end to what's left of Obama's agenda and, just as importantly, an end to any hope for progressive or even moderate appointments to the judiciary. Republicans continue to find ways to slow or prevent the approval of Obama's judicial nominees in the current Congress even with the Democratic majority in the Senate. There are currently 63 judicial vacancies in the Federal courts. It is unlikely that the Senate will be able to confirm judges for even a quarter of these vacancies before the next Congress is seated.
In August, I looked at the key seats in play in red or swing states currently with a Democratic incumbent or retiring Senator. I concluded then that the Senate would be evenly split between Democrats and Republicans and that Democrats would barely hold onto a "majority" by the grace of the Vice-Presidential tie-breaking vote. Here's an update on those races based on more recent polls. The August poll results are shown in parentheses. The end result is one seat (Alaska) swings from Democratic to Republican.
Louisiana - Cassidy (R) 48.0% (46.8%) v. Landrieu (D) 43.4% (45.8%) - Republican lead up by 3.6%.
Alaska - Sullivan (R) 45.7% (41.0%) v Begich (D) 41.0% (44.0%) - Republican lead of 4.7% in October vs. Democratic lead of 3% in August
Arkansas - Cotton (R) 45.8% (47.4%) v. Pryor (D) 42.2% (43.8%) - Republican lead remains same as in August.
North Carolina - Hagan (D) 45.0% (45.8%) v. Tillis (R) 40.8% (44.0%) - Democratic lead up by 4.2%.
Virginia - Warner (D) 49.3% (51.0%) v. Gillespie 35.7% (33.7%) - Democratic lead down by 3.7%
Montana - Daines (R) 54.0% (51.7%) v. Walsh (D) 35.0% (38.0%) - Republican landslide
South Dakota - Rounds(R) 40.3% (44%) v. Weiland (D) 27.7% (29.5%) - Republican lead still in double digits
Iowa - Ernst (R) 44.6% (44.8%) v. Braley (D) 41.8% (44.0%) - Republican lead up by 2%
Michigan - Peters (D) 44.0% (43.8%) v. Land (R) 37.5% (39.2%) - Democratic lead up by 1.9%
But there's more..since August, two Democratic candidates from "blue" states - Udall in Colorado and Shaheen in New Hampshire - have fallen into close races with several recent polls showing them losing in November. If we assume the loss of at least one of these seats, then in these 11 key Senate races, Democrats will hold onto 4 seats and Republicans would capture 7. This would give Republicans a 52-48 majority in the Senate.
So how can a Republican takeover of the Senate be prevented?
(1) Vote.
(2) Canvass.
Facts and being on the right side of issues will never overcome the fears, lies and, at times, hatred being generated by the right-wing echo chamber. These drums have been beating since Obama won the Democratic nomination in 2008. By 2010, the lies about the Affordable Care Act, about the government coming for your guns, about the "failure" of the stimulus, etc., etc., had taken firm hold in the American political psyche. There's no turning that around in one month.
But Dems can still "get out the vote". Turnout will be critical if Democrats are to retain control of the Senate. But mid-term elections have notoriously poor turnout. Add to this the voter suppression laws that went into effect in many of the "Senate-crucial" states and the task in front of Democrats becomes daunting. If Democrats are to have any chance to hold the Senate, the electorate of 2014 needs to look like the electorate of 2008 rather than the electorate of 2010. Canvass, canvass, canvass. And, when you're thoroughly exhausted, canvass some more.
A number of organizations have set up "get out the vote" and "protect the vote" efforts. If you are in a state with a key Senate race, check with your local Democratic Committee or ACLU office. If you, like me, are in a safely Democratic state, volunteer for telephone canvassing shifts. Here's a link to the MoveOn effort:
MoveOn Home Shift signup - you can sign up for 2-1/2 hour shifts here
http://pol.moveon.org/2014calls/home_shift_signup.html?id=102563-4769646-0RY74Qx&t=5
And, of course, vote and encourage all like-minded progressives to vote.
ACLU Voter Information Page
Related
House of Representatives and Governor Races
Currently the Republicans hold a 34 seat majority in the House. Looking at the polls in August, I concluded that the best Democrats could hope for this year would be to reduce the Republican majority to 25 seats, but a more likely figure is that the Republicans majority would increase to 43 seats. So the more likely scenario would be that Republicans will pick up 9 seats in next month's elections. I see no reason to change that conclusion based on more recent polls, which show no noticeable change in voter sentiment.
In the same post, I looked at five governor's races - Florida, Wisconsin, Texas, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. The governors of these states are all currently Republicans. Republicans currently govern 29 of 50 states. The conclusion now is the same as the conclusion then. Democrats should be able to pick up a few governor seats - but don't expect a dramatic change. (August poll results are in parentheses.)
Florida - Crist (D) 43.4% (43.8%) v. Scott (R) 42.0% (42.5%) Democratic lead grew by 0.1%. Tossup.
Wisconsin - Walker (R) 47.8% (47.0%) v. Burke (D) 46.0% (46.3%) Republican lead grew by 1.1%. Tossup but moving towards Republican.
Texas - Abbott (R) 52.0% (50.5%) v. Davis (D) 39.3% (36.8%) Republican lead shrunk by 0.5% but still firmly Republican.
Ohio - Kasich (R) 54.0% (47.0%) v. FitzGerald (D) 32.8% (38.8%) - Republican lead grew by 12%. Republican landslide.
Pennsylvania - Wolf (D) 52.0% (52.0%) v. Tom Corbett (R) 36.1% (39.0%) - Democratic lead grew by 2.9%. Democratic victory.
Polling information in this post is from the Real Clear Politics website.
Monday, March 24, 2014
Obstructing the Judiciary
Justice too long delayed is justice denied.
- Martin Luther King, Jr., Letter from Birmingham Jail
The President of the United States is responsible for nominating judges to the Federal judiciary. It is the Senate's responsibility to confirm or deny these nominations. With just 7 months remaining before the 2014 midterm elections, there are 86 vacancies in the Federal courts - roughly 10% of the total Federal judgeships. Nearly all vacancies have resulted from Republicans blocking Obama nominees in an attempt to deny the Democratic President his choices and ensure continued Republican control of the judicial branch. The obstructionism on presidential nominees to Federal judgeships is unprecedented in recent history.
Harry Reid was able to change the Senate rules to prevent filibustering of these nominees to the federal courts. Should the Republicans gain control of the Senate in 2014, this will no longer matter. You can rest assured that any Obama nominee sent to a Republican Senate will not be confirmed. Just look at the decisions of the currently composed Supreme Court to see what the future holds. Democracy-challenged supporters of the corporations and the wealthy, appointed by Republican Presidents, fill most of the seats on the Court and they've brought us such decisions as Citizens United and the gutting of the Voting Rights Act. Who can ever forget the Republican majority Supreme Court stopping the vote recount in Florida and handing Bush the Presidency even though Gore had garnered more than a half-million more popular votes nationally?
The Court's favorable ruling on the constitutionality of the Affordable Care Act was still detrimental to the "non-ruling" class. By making the expansion of Medicaid optional, they effectively eliminated this option for low-wage-earners in most Republican-controlled states. There has been some movement but as of now, there are still 25 states not moving forward with the ACA's provision for Medicaid expansion. In the end, those finally denied affordable medical insurance will be in the millions.
The Roberts' corporate court sided with the Chamber of Commerce in 13 of 16 cases during the 2009-2010 term. Then, in the 2010-2011 term, "the Roberts Court cut down an exemplary Arizona statute that leveled the financial playing field, rejected a [gender discrimination] suit by 1.6 million women against...Wal-Mart, shielded the makers of drugs from lawsuits by patients who had been harmed, smothered lawsuits against mutual fund cheaters and liars, and disallowed a suit by a death row inmate even though the prosecution failed to turn over exculpating evidence." [Reno News & Review, "Top 10 Worst Supreme Court Decisions", March 2012]Currently there are 49 nominees pending for the 86 vacant judgeships. Mr. President, please wake up and bring forward nominations for the remaining 37 vacancies before the mid-terms. Senator Reid, please put these nominations on a fast track.
 | |
| 2014 Senate seat contests -lighter color indicates retiring Senator |
This year's elections promise to the most expensive mid-terms ever. The money unleashed by Citizens United is flowing freely into the electoral process. Fact-free negative ads are bouncing around the airwaves. Voter suppression measures will be taking full effect in November and "government of the people, by the people and for the people" may become a thing of the past. With the addition of corporate judges to the Federal courts should the Republicans gain the Senate, the oligarchy will be entrenched for a long, long time.
Image
The 2014 Senate election map is from Wikipedia.
The Medicaid expansion map is from the Kaiser Family Foundation website.
Links
"If you prick a corporation, does it not bleed?..." cartoon [New Yorker, March 14, 2011]
Options for low-income people in states denying Medicaid expansion [AllVoices.com, March 22]
Saturday, January 4, 2014
Sunday Round-Up - January 5, 2014
This is the weekly selection of news and opinion from sources outside the US mainstream media. Today we look at the expiration of long-term unemployment benefits, the Tea Party-controlled states of North Carolina and Florida, the Israeli-Palestinian peace talks, the violence in South Sudan, and Australia's record heat wave.
Thanks to Congressional inaction, long-term unemployment benefits expired the weekend after Christmas. To see what might happen nationally if this remains the case, take a look at what's happened in North Carolina, which is in the process of becoming one of the most regressive states in the nation. A December 17 piece on the Bloomsberg website by Evan Soltas does just that. North Carolina Republicans cut long-term unemployment benefits earlier this year. The result: "The state is experiencing the largest labor-force contraction it's ever seen -- 77,000 fewer people were working or searching for work this October than a year ago. This should, but won’t, settle a partisan debate. Cutting unemployment insurance apparently hasn’t encouraged the unemployed to look harder for work: It has caused them to drop out of the labor force altogether." When there are no jobs to be had, cutting unemployment benefits does nothing but add to the burdens of those on the lower rungs of the economic ladder.
Mother Jones' Kevin Drum in a December 23 article gives 10 reasons why the long-term unemployment constitutes a national catastrophe. Besides the widespread human effects, "it turns cyclical unemployment into structural unemployment." Cutting off long-term unemployment benefits makes the situation worse by causing people to drop out of the job market as they did in North Carolina. Drum concludes with a faint hope for the restoration of long-term unemployment benefits. "Republicans in Congress have declined to extend unemployment benefits further, and they show no sign of changing their minds when Congress reconvenes in January. Democrats have a plan to fight for further benefits by linking them to a farm bill that Republicans want to pass, and right now that's pretty much the best hope we have to offer the workers who have been most brutally savaged by the Great Recession."
$11.1 million: Teen pregnancy and STD prevention
$8.3 million: Three county health centers
$2.1 million: Helping Floridians navigate the health insurance industry
$2 million: Hospice care for children
$2 million: Aid for seniors to pay for Medicare premiums and buy prescription drugs
$1 million: Strengthening state review of insurance premium increases
$1 million: Insurance exchange to help consumers compare plans and buy subsidized coverage
$875,000: Cancer prevention"
Florida, the state with the second highest number of medically uninsured, has been in the lead in the fight against the Affordable Care Act. The demon has been let out of the proverbial box. Even though Governor Scott reversed his initial position and supported expansion of Medicaid, the Republicans in the legislature turned him down. The Kaiser Foundation has estimated that about 4.8 million low-income people in states choosing not to expand Medicaid would have been covered had they lived in another state. For Florida this number is over 750,000.
The MJ article was written at a time when Scott was down by high double digits to a generic Democrat in the 2014 election. Scott made his way back to as close as 4 points during the healthcare.gov rollout debacle and a November Quinnipiac poll has him trailing by just 7 points. And that's before the big money starts to flow in.
In Brief - Links to Other Stories of Interest
From The Guardian, Dec. 31
Rightwing Israeli government ministers have stepped up their opposition to a peace deal with the Palestinians before US secretary of state John Kerry's visit to the region this week by backing a parliamentary bill to annex a strategically significant swath of the West Bank.
From The Guardian, Jan. 3
South Sudan's government and rebels finally began talks to end weeks of bloodletting on Friday after days of delay as the United States ordered out more of its embassy staff. However, there was no face-to-face meeting, and fighting was reported near the key town of Bor, suggesting that a halt to fighting between President Salva Kiir's SPLA government forces and rebels loyal to former vice president Riek Machar is still a long way off. At least 1000 people have died in the fighting that began last month.
From Informed Comment website, Jan. 3
Australia experienced its hottest year on record in 2013, the Bureau of Meteorology said Friday, enduring the longest heat wave ever recorded Down Under as well as destructive bushfires.
From The Guardian, Jan. 4
John Kerry, the US secretary of state, is engaged in intense efforts to coax reluctant Israeli and Palestinian leaders towards an agreement to end their decades-old conflict, against the unhelpful backdrop of mounting political pressure on both sides to reject concessions.
Thanks to Congressional inaction, long-term unemployment benefits expired the weekend after Christmas. To see what might happen nationally if this remains the case, take a look at what's happened in North Carolina, which is in the process of becoming one of the most regressive states in the nation. A December 17 piece on the Bloomsberg website by Evan Soltas does just that. North Carolina Republicans cut long-term unemployment benefits earlier this year. The result: "The state is experiencing the largest labor-force contraction it's ever seen -- 77,000 fewer people were working or searching for work this October than a year ago. This should, but won’t, settle a partisan debate. Cutting unemployment insurance apparently hasn’t encouraged the unemployed to look harder for work: It has caused them to drop out of the labor force altogether." When there are no jobs to be had, cutting unemployment benefits does nothing but add to the burdens of those on the lower rungs of the economic ladder.
Mother Jones' Kevin Drum in a December 23 article gives 10 reasons why the long-term unemployment constitutes a national catastrophe. Besides the widespread human effects, "it turns cyclical unemployment into structural unemployment." Cutting off long-term unemployment benefits makes the situation worse by causing people to drop out of the job market as they did in North Carolina. Drum concludes with a faint hope for the restoration of long-term unemployment benefits. "Republicans in Congress have declined to extend unemployment benefits further, and they show no sign of changing their minds when Congress reconvenes in January. Democrats have a plan to fight for further benefits by linking them to a farm bill that Republicans want to pass, and right now that's pretty much the best hope we have to offer the workers who have been most brutally savaged by the Great Recession."
(Image from the Mother Jones article)
As the country prepares for the 2014 elections, things are looking up (believe it or not) for Republicans. Some polls show them taking control of the Senate for the last two years of Obama's Presidency. With the huge number of gerrymandered, safe Republican Congressional districts brought about in red states since the 2010 census and with the voter suppression laws about to take full effect, I expect Democrats to pick up very few, if any, seats in the House without a major Republican meltdown.
So let's imagine what a Tea Party country would look like. In an article appearing earlier this year, Mother Jones' Stephanie Mencimer asked "What's It Like to Wake Up From a Tea Party Binge? Just Ask Florida!" She writes: "In just one year, Scott and his conservative allies slashed state spending by $4 billion even as they cut corporate taxes. They've rejected billions in federal funds in one of the states hardest hit by the recession. They've axed everything from health care and public transportation initiatives to mosquito control and water supply programs." Mencimer provides the following sidebar in her article:
"From high-speed trains to care for terminally ill kids: a few of the federal grants Florida has turned down:
$2.4 billion: High-speed rail
$2.4 billion: High-speed rail
$37.5 million: Support for people moving out of nursing homes
$31.5 million: Home visits for new mothers$11.1 million: Teen pregnancy and STD prevention
$8.3 million: Three county health centers
$2.1 million: Helping Floridians navigate the health insurance industry
$2 million: Hospice care for children
$2 million: Aid for seniors to pay for Medicare premiums and buy prescription drugs
$1 million: Strengthening state review of insurance premium increases
$1 million: Insurance exchange to help consumers compare plans and buy subsidized coverage
$875,000: Cancer prevention"
Florida, the state with the second highest number of medically uninsured, has been in the lead in the fight against the Affordable Care Act. The demon has been let out of the proverbial box. Even though Governor Scott reversed his initial position and supported expansion of Medicaid, the Republicans in the legislature turned him down. The Kaiser Foundation has estimated that about 4.8 million low-income people in states choosing not to expand Medicaid would have been covered had they lived in another state. For Florida this number is over 750,000.
The MJ article was written at a time when Scott was down by high double digits to a generic Democrat in the 2014 election. Scott made his way back to as close as 4 points during the healthcare.gov rollout debacle and a November Quinnipiac poll has him trailing by just 7 points. And that's before the big money starts to flow in.
In Brief - Links to Other Stories of Interest
From The Guardian, Dec. 31
Rightwing Israeli government ministers have stepped up their opposition to a peace deal with the Palestinians before US secretary of state John Kerry's visit to the region this week by backing a parliamentary bill to annex a strategically significant swath of the West Bank.
From The Guardian, Jan. 3
South Sudan's government and rebels finally began talks to end weeks of bloodletting on Friday after days of delay as the United States ordered out more of its embassy staff. However, there was no face-to-face meeting, and fighting was reported near the key town of Bor, suggesting that a halt to fighting between President Salva Kiir's SPLA government forces and rebels loyal to former vice president Riek Machar is still a long way off. At least 1000 people have died in the fighting that began last month.
From Informed Comment website, Jan. 3
Australia experienced its hottest year on record in 2013, the Bureau of Meteorology said Friday, enduring the longest heat wave ever recorded Down Under as well as destructive bushfires.
From The Guardian, Jan. 4
John Kerry, the US secretary of state, is engaged in intense efforts to coax reluctant Israeli and Palestinian leaders towards an agreement to end their decades-old conflict, against the unhelpful backdrop of mounting political pressure on both sides to reject concessions.
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