The Midterms - the Polls and What's at Stake

It's three months until the midterm elections. Besides the 435 House seats and 36 Senate seats to be decided on November 4, voters will go to the polls to elect 46 state legislatures, 36 state governors, and numerous local officials.  The last midterms in 2010 swept Republicans into control of the House of Representatives and state governments and broke the filibuster-proof Democratic majority in the Senate.   In 2010, Democrats lost 6 Senate seats and 63 House seats. The crushing defeats for Democrats were a primary motivator for writing this blog - my first post was "Anger and Lies in the Mid-terms."  The 2010 midterms were a game changer. They led directly to the governmental paralysis at the national level that continues to this day.  Just as importantly, increased Republican control of state governments resulted in gerrymandered districts and voter suppression laws geared to ensure Republican control of the House and to make more probable their takeover of the Senate.  Supreme Court decisions on campaign finance laws and the Voting Rights Act also aid the Republican cause.

The midterms have historically led to losses for the President's political party.  In the twenty-six midterm elections held since 1910, the President's party has lost, on average, 32 House seats and 4 Senate seats.  Money and turnout determine elections.  Money favors Republicans and turnout favors Democrats.

Thanks to the Roberts Supreme Court, the 2014 midterms will be the most expensive in history.  The Open Secrets.org website tallies the financial activity for House and Senate races in 2013-2014.  House races have generated $424 million for Republicans and $316 million for Democrats.  Senate races have generated $207 million for Republicans and $197 million for Democrats.

Anyone doubting the influence of money on policy decisions will find it hard to explain policies that are opposed by the vast majority  or that are morally bankrupt.  We need only to look at the contributions to political campaigns and the amount spent on lobbying by, respectively, the pro-gun lobby ($4.3 million in political contributions in the 2012  election cycle; $22.2 million in lobbying for 2013-2014)  and the pro-Israel lobby (Sheldon Adelson doled out $92.8 million to Republican super PACs in 2012;  other pro-Israel groups contributed $16.1 million to the federal campaigns of both parties in the 2012 election cycle.) Anyone hoping for a change in policies that contribute to the income and wealth gap in the United States need only reflect on the contributions to political campaigns by the finance/insurance/real estate sectors ($228 million in campaign contributions to candidates and parties so far in the 2013-2014 election cycle).

Congressional disapproval ratings and the voter suppression laws increase the probability of low voter turnout.  As of 2011, there were 42 million registered Democrats, 30 million registered GOPers, and 24 million independents.  According to census figures, there are over 200 million people in the voting eligible population. About half the US voting population have not registered with a party or as independents. Turnout in midterm elections is even worse than that - the 2010 elections saw just 41% of the voting eligible population show up at the polls.

Both the money figures and the expected low turnout promise continued Republican control of the House and a loss of Democratic seats in the Senate.  But where do the polls say we stand three months before the mid-term elections?  Here's a look at the latest poll results for some specific races. (Data are from the Real Clear Politics website)

Governors
Florida - Charlie Crist (D) 43.8% v. Rick Scott (R) 42.5%
Wisconsin - Scott Walker (R) 47.0% v. Mary Burke(D) 46.3%
Texas - Greg Abbott (R) 50.5% v. Wendy Davis (D) 36.8%
Ohio - Jim Kasich (R) 47.0% v. Ed FitzGerald (D) 38.8%
Pennsylvania - Tom Wolf (D) 52.0% v. Tom Corbett (R) 39.0%

Two toss-ups, two Republican likely's and one Democratic likely in some of the most important Republican held states - some small gains in state governments but not a lot to cheer about here.

Senators 
This is the key group.  There are 21 Democratic seats and 15 Republican seats to be decided.  Loss of the Senate majority would ensure an end to what's left of Obama's agenda and to any hope for progressive or even moderate appointments to the judiciary.  These are the key seats in play in red or swing states currently with a Democratic incumbent Senator and/or with a retiring Democratic Senator:

Louisiana - Cassidy (R) 46.8% v. Landrieu (D) 45.8%
Alaska - Begich (D) 44.0% v. Sullivan (R) 41.0%
Arkansas - Cotton 47.4% (R) v. Pryor (D) 43.8%
North Carolina - Hagan (D) 45.8% v. Tillis (R) 44.0%
Virginia - Warner (D) 51.0% v. Gillespie 33.7%
Montana - Daines (R) 51.7% v. Walsh (D) 38.0%
South Dakota - Rounds(R) 44% v. Weiland (D) 29.5%
Iowa - Ernst (R) 44.8% v. Braley (D) 44.0%
Michigan - Peters (D) 43.8% v.  Land (R) 39.2%

It's still early and many of the key races are toss-ups.  But, if the vote were held tomorrow and the current poll figures held, Democrats would lose 5 Senate seats, making for a 50-50 split.  Democrats would technically retain the majority only because of the Vice President's tie-breaking role in votes brought to the Senate floor.

Representatives
The composition of the current House of Representatives is 233 Republicans, 199 Democrats, and 3 vacancies.  The most recent RealClearPolitics polling analysis shows 230 seats going to Republicans, 188 going to Democrats and 17 tossups.  Splitting the tossups roughly in half makes for a Republican majority of 239 to 196 Democrats.  In the best of all possible worlds - all tossups going to Democrats - the Republican majority would still be 25 seats - 230 to 205.

Finishing James Brady's fight for gun background checks [Newark Star Ledger editorial, Aug 4]
James Brady, Ronald Reagan's press secretary, died Monday at the age of 73.  Brady was shot in the head during the attempted assassination of Reagan in 1981.  He was permanently disabled and lived with constant pain but remained, until his death, "a tireless fighter for gun safety laws -- particularly the most common sense reform of all, universal background checks."  The "Brady Law" passed in 1993 made background checks "a requirement for gun purchases from licensed dealers."  It  is credited with stopping the sale of "more than 2 million illegal firearms sales -- half of them attempted purchases by convicted felons."  But Brady knew the job wasn't finished.  The loopholes that allow 40 percent of gun purchases without background checks have never been closed.  "Universal background checks are now supported by 90 percent of Americans, 84 percent of gun owners and 74 percent of NRA members.  They don't march in line with industry lobbyists. We can only hope that eventually, the political class will yield to a public opinion that James Brady started to shift."