The Year Nothing Got Done

The first full year of the 112th Congress was epically dysfunctional, thanks to the ideological intransigence of the Republicans in both houses.  This poor performance has scholars going back to pre Civil War times to find such incompetence and gridlock.  Thomas Mann of the Brookings Institute says that in modern history, "there have been battles, delays, brinksmanship - but nothing quite like this."  At a time when bold action was needed to help the country recover from the Great Recession and create jobs, very little useful legislation was passed.  The blame is squarely on the Republicans, whose primary goal since Obama's election has been to deny him a second term. 

The Tea Party extremists may have overplayed their hand by fighting the payroll tax cut compromise until the eleventh hour.  Even other Republicans told them to get with the program and stop being so stupid.  This was a tax break, for goodness' sake.  Republicans may be hoping that by the time of the 2012 elections, voters will have forgotten what caused the mess in the first place (after all the Recession was already in full swing in 2008 after the deregulation fiasco, the unjustified wars, and the Bush tax cuts) and who stood in the way of providing the necessary stimulus to create jobs and recover from the recession.  Combined with the far-reaching Republican disenfranchisement efforts and the notable lack of enthusiasm among young voters, Obama may just be a one-term President as fervently wished by Republicans. 

While Obama holds a significant advantage over Romney among the "millenials", the all-important voter turnout depends primarily on enthusiasm.  It's hard to be enthusiastic when you are loaded with student debt and out of work.  But it would be a mistake for young voters and the OWS people to stay away from the polls this November.  If you think the situation is bad now, just think what it would be like with Republicans in control of all three branches of government.  So for a New Year's resolution, let's all go out and vote.  Throw the Republicans out of Congress and hold onto the Presidency.  Who knows?  A President with some balls, to use Matt Damon's phrase, and a Congress that actually could accomplish something might make for a good 2013. 

In the meantime, Happy New Year and hang in there in 2012.  It may not be much better than 2011 but it cannot be much worse.

US Ends Iraq War

After nearly nine years, all American troops are finally leaving Iraq.  The United States formally ended the war today - eight years, seven months and 14 days after the so-called "mission accomplished" speech.  Nearly 4500 Americans lost their lives.  Thankfully there will be no more from this particular war.  Welcome home. 

The costs of this totally unnecessary neocon war have been enormous.  And, the increasingly irrelevant John McCain and increasingly misguided Cheney family to the contrary, the withdrawal is long past due.  In addition, the official number of wounded Americans is more than 33,000.  The toll on Iraqis was much greater - a minimum of 100,000 - 125,000 Iraqi civilians have been killed since the US invaded (Iraq Body Count website).  Some other estimates are much higher (e.g., Lancet/Johns Hopkins study on the "excessive" Iraqi deaths).  The total US price tag for the Iraq War will eventually reach 3 trillion dollars with the cost to other countries about the same order of magnitude (Stiglitz and Bilmes, Washington Post article).  For a good summary of Stiglitz and Bilmes analysis of the total cost of the war, see the 2008 article by Aida Edemariam in The Guardian.

The Iraq War is the greatest US foreign policy debacle since Vietnam.  It has immeasurably damaged the US reputation throughout the world.  It has damaged the world and national economy.  It was based on false intelligence and "sold" to a gullible and scared American public with deception, arrogance and lies.  Senator McCain, you have it completely wrong.  It was the neocons who misled the country into this unnecessary war of aggression and it is they, not the President who finally extracted us from Iraq, who will be judged most harshly by history. 

More dastardly doings

As the year ends, Congressional Republicans are once more demonstrating why they do not deserve to govern in a democracy.  Over the past couple of weeks:

• House Republicans passed the REINS bill.  This bill would allow either house of Congress to veto executive branch rules (e.g., EPA, OSHA) that cost $100 million or greater to implement.  If the rules are not approved by a majority in both houses they would not be implemented.  So if the Party of No decides that its okay to release let's say certain toxins to the atmosphere rather than implement an EPA rule that would control the release, well then if they have a majority in either chamber, they could just go ahead and vote no and the Executive Branch could not implement the rule.  I haven't read anything about financial industry regulations but I assume this law would apply there also.  As a NYT editorial stated this is an undemocratic, terrible piece of legislation that would undermine the executive branch: "The bill is the fullest flowering of the Republicans’ antiregulatory philosophy."  When will the right-wing understand that the problems that led to the financial meltdown was too little, not too much, regulation.  The good news is that the Senate will likely not bother to take up the measure and Obama will veto it if it makes it that far.
• Senate Republicans blocked the nomination of Richard Cordray to head the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau...just as they had previously done to Elizabeth Warren.  As the Star-Ledger (Newark) put it: "Senate Republicans are suffering collective amnesia about the banking and mortgage loan mess that trashed the American economy."  Republicans have as their stated aim to substantially weaken the agency before they allow someone to head it, rendering it less effective.  I guess Obama will have to appoint a CFPB head when the Congressional clowns go home on recess.  I mean if "W" could appoint someone as unqualified as John Bolton to be the US representative to the UN, why can't a person clearly qualified to protect consumers be appointed head of an agency meant to head off the next financial meltdown? 
• House Republicans passed a payroll tax extension that has several "poison pills" in the legislation that will surely result in a White House veto.  These toxic provisions include:  requiring a fast track review of a controversial tar sands pipeline project, reducing by 40% the maximum time emergency unemployment benefits could be extended (99 weeks to 59 weeks), and delaying EPA regulations on industrial boiler emissions.  For this last one, the EPA has estimated that the new regulations would prevent 8100 premature deaths and 52,000 asthma attacks annually.  I'm of two minds when it comes to the payroll tax extension.  It is necessary now as a means of providing additional stimulus to the economy - it's about the only stimulus Republicans will allow. BUT continually extending the payroll tax cut would eventually undermine the Social Security system.  So  a one-time extension of the tax cut would be useful but additional extensions would be dangerous.   In any case, the vote should be on the merits of the extension and not contaminated with other issues.
• Still to come: will unemployment benefits be extended in time to prevent 5 million people from losing their benefits in 2012.  And who will pay the price?  If Republicans hold true to form - it will be domestic programs and other parts of the social safety net that will suffer.

Channelling TR

President Obama traveled to the small Kansas town of Osawatomie today and channelled Teddy Roosevelt who, a hundred years ago gave a stirring speech in the same community for a "square deal" for the American people. 

Speaking to the audience at the local high school, Obama said “I’m here in Kansas to reaffirm my deep conviction that we are greater together than we are on our own.  I believe that this country succeeds when everyone gets a fair shot, when everyone does their fair share, and when everyone plays by the same rules.”  He received a warm reception and enthusiastic applause in the very red state of Kansas.  The chances of Obama winning Kansas in 2012 are, as we used to say, between slim and none.  It was obviously meant as a national speech and began to define his 2012 campaign.  The speech, described by the Christian Science Monitor as "combative", took Republicans to task for their opposition to the extension of the payroll tax cut, their attempts to dilute or defund the financial industry regulations passed in the last Congress, their opposition to increased taxes on the wealthiest Americans and their opposition to the American Jobs Act. 

A good start...and one which needs to be pounded home every day from now until next November.  Obama may win the election for the Presidency but if Congress is still controlled by Republicans, none of these speeches will matter.  The Republicans in the Do Nothing 112th Congress have had as their main objective denying Obama a second term rather than solving the problems the country faces.  It's time to turn these misguided legislators out of office.  They have stood in the way of nearly every possible solution to the jobs crisis in this country...but somehow they have managed to convince people that the sad state of the economy is all Obama's fault.  According to the right-wing extremists now in control of the Republican Party, all we need are fewer regulations and lower taxes on the rich and let the free market solve our problems.  That formula has never worked and never will. 

OWS Politics

Unless OWS gets seriously involved in dislodging the Republicans from office in 2012 - their majority in the House and their strangle hold on the Senate- none of OWS' complaints or issues will be addressed for the foreseeable future.  At least with the Democrats in power, there is an outside chance that some of the most pressing problems facing the country will be ameliorated if not solved. 

The Republicans' current opposition to the extensions of the payroll tax reduction and to unemployment benefits (without further cuts to the social safety net rather than taxing the wealthiest Americans) should show everyone in the 99% that they are not on our side at all.   The OWS movement says they are non-partisan but a look at the differences between the ideologies of the Republicans and Democrats will show why this should not be so. 

George Lakoff summarizes this beautifully today in the Huffington Post in an appeal to OWS to get involved in the 2012 elections.  For the Left, "American democracy is about citizens caring about one another and acting responsibly on that care."  A strong private sector depends on a strong public sector, on a strong commons.  For the Right, "democracy is about citizens only taking care of themselves, about personal and not social responsibility.  According to right-wing morality, the successful are by definition the moral; the one percent are taken to be the most moral."   

In recent years, the political conversation has been dominated by the heavily financed right wing echo chamber.  Now is the time to shift the conversation away from privilege, greed and fear and to a better understanding of what American democracy really should be all about.  Now is the time to get involved in the electoral process or forever hold your peace.

Profiles in Courage

In 1955, future President John F. Kennedy's memorable biographical work Profiles in Courage was published.  The Pulitzer-prize-winning book related the stories of eight U.S. senators who took difficult and often unpopular stands upholding principles rather than doing the easy thing politically.  Here are three persons today who give us hope that courage to stand up for one's principles is still alive in the world.  Sorry JFK, not one of them is a U.S. senator.

Hagit Ofran is an Israeli peace activist.  In spite of right-wing extremist death threats, she continues to speak out against the illegal Israeli settlements in the Occupied Territories and in favor of a just two-state solution.  November 4th marked the sixteenth anniversary of the assassination by a right wing Israeli extremist of Yitzhak Rabin, the Israeli Prime Minister who had signed the Oslo Peace Accords.  It was an assassination with an impact on the Middle East peace process as great as the assassination of JFK in 1963 had on the US.  Close to the assassination's anniversary this year, Jewish terrorists painted death threats on her home.  Not backing down, Ofran delivered the keynote address at the annual rally to remember Rabin and all that he stood for. 

Lydia Cacho Ribiero is a Mexican journalist, feminist and human rights activist.  Cacho received death threats this summer after exposing a sex-trafficking ring.  The November issue of The Atlantic named her as one of the "21 brave thinkers of 2011".  For years she has written on the exploitation of women and children.  In 1999, she was raped and beaten in the bathroom of a bus station for what she believes was her advocacy for women.  In 2006, she took up the cause of the unsolved murders of women in Ciudad Juarez.  She is the recipient of numerous awards for her her investigative journalism including awards from Amnesty International and UNESCO. 

John Kitzhaber is the governor of Oregon.  On Tuesday November 22, he banned the death penalty in his state for the duration of his term.  In the only Western democracy with a populace whose majority supports the death penalty, Gov. Kitzhaber took the courageous step of banning it - calling the death penalty system "an expensive and unworkable system that fails to meet the basic standards of justice."    An LA Times editorial rightly praised Kitzhaber for "one of the most courageous and conscientious acts we've seen on the national political stage in some time."  This is what leaders do - they lead.  When the majority are wrong, leaders have  the strength to show them the proper path. 

Failure

As probably could have been predicted, the bipartisan deficit reduction committee failed to meet its target.  News reports today have them throwing in the sponge early and trying to spin their failure.  So now the automatic cuts begin.  It's a shame that an automatic tax increase on the wealthy wasn't part of the deal.  As noted previously, we cannot balance the budget solely with cuts to social programs. The only consolation in all this is that the unnecessary and over-bloated military budget will be cut automatically also.

The real problem with the economy is not the deficit - it's jobs.  Congressional Republicans continue to stymie Obama Administration attempts to enact portions of the American Jobs Act.  No surprise there either.  The dysfunctional Congress, made ever more so by the Party of No intent on making Obama a one-term Presidnt, has upcoming votes on extensions of unemployment benefits and of the payroll tax cut.  $1.00 to your 50 cents says they won't be passed.  

In other news today:

• A financial services lobbying firm has proposed a $850,000 campaign to discredit the Occupy Wall Street Movement. (Slate, originally reported on MSNBC's "Up with Chris Hayes")
• A Fairleigh Dickinson University poll found that watching Fox News actually made a person less informed about current events than if he or she avoided watching or reading news altogether.  Gives more meaning than ever to the watch-dog group News Hounds' motto "We watch FOX News so you don't have to."
• The World Meteorological Association reports that greenhouse gases in 2010 reached their highest level ever (CO2 is now at 389 ppm - 39% higher than pre-industrial age levels).  This atmospheric CO2 concentration exceeds some of the worst-case scenarios projected by climate scientists.  The really bad news is that the rate of increase is not declining but still trending upward.
• And finally, how about those classy NASCAR fans that booed Michelle Obama and Jill Biden ?  The first and second ladies were at Homestead Miami Speedway to "promote the White House’s Joining Forces Program, which encourages Americans to pledge community service hours in honor of the troops serving abroad and send messages of support to military families". Kind of reminiscent of the Republican primary debate boos for a gay soldier and cheers for Texas executions.  What a bunch!  

Deficit Solution

Today, it's hard to remember that in 2000 the Congressional Budget Office was estimating a surplus of $1.9 trillion for the coming decade.  That was before Bush was "elected" by the US Supreme Court - which is to say before the Bush tax cuts and the ill-advised neocon wars added trillions to the deficit and before the karma from the conservative deregulation frenzy initated in the 1980's caught up with us in 2007 and we experienced the greatest financial crisis since the Depression.

It would seem that the right way to attack the budget deficit is to focus on what went wrong since 2000, on what is no longer relevant in a post-Cold War era  and on what we need to do to correct these errors. 

To start, no solution to the budget deficit will be possible without deep cuts in military spending.  Fifty three cents out of every Federal tax dollar goes to pay for past, current and potential future wars.  (Softbox Films put together an informative short piece on the breakdown of these expenditures on its YouTube channel.)   A few ideas: The action with the most immediate effect on the budget would be the removal of all US troops from Afghanistan.  Continued stationing of US forces in Europe at the current levels seems totally unnecessary.  Dismantling of the country's nuclear arms is long overdue.  And let's not forget about the other "toys" that the Pentagon continues to demand - serious consideration needs to be given to converting weapons factories to peace-time manufacturing.   Why the world's only remaining superpower needs a military budget more than six times that of China is beyond comprehension.  If we just reduced our military expenditures on a GDP basis to that of China, we could save $345 billion per year!

Secondly, John Boehner and Eric Cantor to the contrary, we cannot "cut" our way out of the deficit.  Revenues must be increased.  In a nation where 40 percent of the wealth is owned by 1% of the population, fairness and concern for the common good demands, at a minimum, an end to the Bush tax cuts for wealthy Americans or, even better, a return to the incremental tax rates in place during the administration of conservative icon Ronald Reagan.  Corporations are currently sitting on significant amounts of cash - the problem is not with business profitability but with a reduced demand from customers.  Fair taxation of corporations is also an important element.  A revised tax code that reduces loopholes and provides selective tax credits only when companies create domestic jobs would be a good start in this arena. Revenues from the "rest of us" will increase as soon as jobs are created and more people find work.  This cannot be done without additional stimulus spending that would be financed by the increased revenues from the wealthy and corporations. 

Finally, sound financial regulations implemented during the Depression kept us from severe recessions for more than a half-century.  These controls were gradually eroded, financial system complexity was increased, enforcement became more difficult, and greed and risk became accepted parts of the game.  Perhaps the action most responsible for the current Great Recession was the repeal of some of the provisions of the 1933 Glass-Steagall Act in 1999.  As the Wikipedia entry on Glass-Steagall succinctly states: "The repeal of provisions of the Glass–Steagall Act by the Gramm–Leach–Bliley Act in 1999 effectively removed the separation that previously existed between investment banking which issued securities and commercial banks which accepted deposits. The deregulation also removed conflict of interest prohibitions between investment bankers serving as officers of commercial banks. This repeal may have contributed to the severity of the Financial crisis of 2007–2011 by allowing banks to become so large, complex, and intertwined that both they and their regulators failed to see the systemic risk that a failure in one part of one bank could lead to cascading failures across the global financial system."

It's too late to reverse the impact of the Recession on the lives of so many millions.  But a little bit of old-fashioned root cause analysis can help us prevent this from happening again.  A reinstatement of Glass-Steagall would be an important step in that direction.

Attacks on the Right to Vote

"One of the most pervasive political movements going on outside Washington today is the disciplined, passionate, determined effort of Republican governors and legislators to keep most of you from voting next time.  There has never been in my lifetime, since we got rid of the poll tax and all the other Jim Crow burdens on voting, the determined effort to limit the franchise that we see today." - Bill Clinton, 2011 Campus Progress National Convention, Washington, D.C., July 6, 2011

From Maine to Florida to Wisconsin to Texas, Republicans are coordinating an effort to suppress the vote of citizens who typically vote Democratic.  By doing so, they hope to deny Obama a second term and win control of both houses of Congress.  If they can make the 2012 electorate more like the 2010 electorate than the 2008 electorate, they will succeed.  Based on the chimera of voter fraud, which is almost non-existent in this country (or, as Think Progress quipped , "only slightly more common than unicorns") , Republicans have been mounting a coordinated assault on the right to vote by enacting measures that will suppress the votes of students, Afrrican-Americans, immigrants, the elderly and the poor.  The Brennan Center for Justice at the NYU School of Law examined the 19 laws and 2 executive orders in the 14 states that have enacted these voter suppression measures.  The Center estimated that 5 million voters could be prevented from voting in 2012 because of these laws alone.

It's clear that the Republicans assume that the fewer people who exercise this basic right to vote, the better their chances in 2012.  And they are right.  US voter turnout in the 2008 Presidential elections was 70%; in the 2010 Congressional elections, 42%. Guess who wins if just 42% of the voters show up in 2012.

The primary tactics of this voter suppression effort are:

• Requiring government issued ID cards to vote - it's estimated that 18% of young voters and 25% of African-Americans do not have such ID's.  Six Republican-controlled states have passed laws making this a requirement - Alabama, Kansas, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, and Wisconsin.
• Enacting laws that make it more difficult to register new voters.  Florida's anti-voter law provides for fines for procedural errors in registering new voters.  This had the desired effect - the non-partisan League of Women Voters suspended its voter registration efforts in Florida.  And let's not forget the shutdown of ACORN, the advocacy group for the poor that was so effective in getting lower income people and minorities registered. 
• Decreasing the time period for early voting.  In Florida (rapidly becoming the poster-boy of this voter suppression effort), voting on the Sunday before election day was eliminated.  Maine passed a law that for the first time in 38 years prevents a person from registering the same day that he or she votes.
• Prohibiting or making it difficult for college students who live in-state for most of the year to vote there. (Example: New Hampshire)
• Denying the right to vote to felons who have served their time and probation.  (Example: Florda and Iowa)

Rolling Stone and Mother Jones have been at the forefront of exposing the tactics. Rolling Stone posted a comprehensive investigative report August 30. There is even some indication that the mainstream media and the public are finally picking up on it.  The ACLU and other groups are mounting legal challenges to the new laws, Maine voters go to the polls in November to try to overturn their anti-voter law, and Congressional Democrats are asking the Justice Department to use its authority to block or modify laws that discriminate against minority voters.  Whether these actions will succeed in stopping the anti-voter laws from impacting the election is anybody's guess.  The more roadblocks you put in people's way, the less likely they are to vote.  In addition to the legal challenges, progressive groups in the affected states need to begin now to help potential voters get the proper documentation. 

As a side note, it is strange that we hear nothing from the Tea Party's self-described defenders of liberty about this denial of the most basic right in a democracy.  If ever there were a loss of freedom worth complaining about, this is it.  But then again the Tea Party funders are also helping advocate for the massive Republican voter suppression effort. 

I served on a Federal jury several years ago.  After the trial was over, the judge thanked the jurors for participating and reaching a verdict.  He closed with this:  "The citizen exercises his rights in a democracy most directly in the jury box and at the ballot box."  Let's not allow the well-funded right-wing political machine to deny citizens their most basic right to vote.

Obama's Short(falls) List

A friend suggested a while back that this blog rant against Democrats as well as Republicans.  That's been pretty hard to do on a regular basis given the consistently outrageous behavior of Republicans.  But I'm willing to give it a shot.

My friend also said that he had voted for neither Obama nor McCain in the 2008 election.  His comment on Obama was that he was too "green" (in the experience sense not in the environmental sense) to be president.  He may well have been right.  Obama appears to have been bullied by everyone from freshman Congressmen to the medical industry to the military to Benjamin Netanyahu and the so-called "Israel lobby".  Maybe he is naive or maybe he really has been a centrist all along.  In any case, the change we can believe in didn't happen.   Yes the 111th Congress had some pretty decent accomplishments but they were shoved out in 2010.

So without further ado, here are the top 10 disappointments of the Obama Presidency.

10.  Not requesting Harry Reid to change the filibuster rules in the Senate.  This procedure ensures that the party that wants government to fail or do nothing will always win - even if they control just 40 of the 100 seats.  It has no place in a democracy.   

9.  Allowing the most reactionary elements in our country to control the political conversation.  A year or so after the election, I saw a cartoon on the wall of a local business.  Obama was dressed as Steve Urkel and looking at a graph with a seriously down-sloping line.  The comment from the cartoon Obama-Urkel was "Did I do that?"  No, actually you inherited the biggest economic crisis since the Great Depression from your predecessor and it's proving a major challenge.  Maybe it's because Obama thought himself the Great Compromiser, maybe it's because he realized too late that the fear-mongers and haters were out to ruin his Presidency, maybe Democrats just don't know how to respond to lies and distortions...whatever the reason ...he failed to make the case for his policies.  This led to the 2010 election bloodbath and the Democratic majority was lost.

8.  Continuing Bush-era policies against civil liberties developed during the new Age of Fear and taking it a step further by approving unnecessary (Bin-Laden, who could have been easily captured for trial as a war criminal) and unlawful (Anwar al-Awlaki, an American citizen) assassinations.   As noted by Glenn Greenwald in Salon.com , "No effort was made to indict [al-Awlaki] for any crimes [and]...no evidence (as opposed to unverified government accusations) was presented of his guilt."

7.  Taking until YE 2011 to get out of Iraq (McCain and Romney: please shut up).  The troops could have been easily and methodically withdrawn within 6 months of his becoming President.  Based on misinformation and lies and abetted by a complacent media (remember how thrilled these idiots were to be "embedded" with the troops), this war of the Neo-Cons was totally unjustified.  It elevated Iran, a fundamentalist Islamic state, to be the major player in the Middle East with Iraq as its puppet.  Well done, Bushie.

6.  Agreeing to a stimulus package that, in the end, was too small.  While it had a signicant impact, it was not anywhere near large enough to prevent the "jobless recovery".  See also #3 and #4 below. 

5.  Spending all of his political capital after the election on health care and getting only a half-loaf solution.  It may have been worth it if he got a single-payer solution (the one sure way to reduce health care costs) but this was not even on the table.  See also #3 below.

4.  Appointing Wall Street players and Bush-era advisors to his economic team.   These were the clowns that got us into the mess in the first place.  His focus on the deficit when 16% of Americans are either unemployed or underemployed is self-defeating.  At a time when bold Keynesian moves are needed, the Administration settles timidly for half-measures.

3.  A) Thinking he could compromise with Republicans and B) not controlling the Red Dog Democrats.  Democrats held 60 seats and controlled the House when Obama became President.  Instead of FDR (or even LBJ) style arm twisting, he let a small minority of Democrats combine with Republicans to dictate the policies of his Administration.  When the stated aim of the opposing party is to limit you to a one-term Presidency and their media minions are hoping for you to fail, you do not compromise.  You call them out and fight.

2.  Failing to achieve a Palestinian - Israeli peace accord.  After a good and somewhat even-handed start (for example, his 2009 speech in Cairo), he was manhandled by the right-wing Israeli President and AIPAC.  Instead of doing what is right to get the two sides to the table - namely insisting on an immediate settlement freeze in the occupied territories, he fell victim to domestic politics, the Israel lobby and their right-wing Republican and Christian fundamentalist allies.   His failure to support Palestinian statehood at the UN was one of the major low points in his administration.  While not the only issue that energizes Muslim fundamentalists, the Occupation remains a key factor in the antagonism against us.  I guess Americans for Peace Now will just have to raise more money to get its progressive Jewish voice heard above the right-wing babble.

1.  Escalating the war in Afghanistan.  The war is no more winnable or justifiable than was Vietnam.  The surge has not worked but our money and blood continue to flow in that "graveyard of empires".   The so-called "war" on terror should have been a police action not a war.  Terrorism is prevented by detection not by war.

Having said all that, unless he is challenged by a progressive Democrat (yeah, I know, fat chance), he remains the least bad option for 2012.  Hopefully enough of his 2008 base will be inspired enough by this bland reality to go to the polls.  (I mean can you imagine a Rick Perry presidency?)  For all the talk of the importance of "independents", if the Democratic left doesn't show up next November, Obama will lose. 

1.9 Million Jobs Gone

The American Jobs Act is dead.  Nearly two million Americans will not have the jobs that this act would have created.  Given Republican refusal to raise taxes for the wealthy and their determinatiion not to give Obama a "victory", its defeat was totally predictable.   But the loser in this is not President Obama, the loser is the entire country. 

Earlier this week, the Senate could not muster the 60 votes to prevent a Republican filibuster.  The House Republicans will not allow it to even reach the floor for a vote.  Let's hope the voters remember this come the 2012 elections. 

The "Occupy - 99%" demonstrations continue across the country.  It's not clear that the demonstrations will be any more effective than Obama's stump speeches as long as Republicans control the House and block jobs legislation and taxes in the Senate.  Class warfare? Gangs?  The Republican empty suits that are decrying the OWS demonstrations were egging on the Tea Party loonies just a year or two ago.  The Republican Party has been captured by an extremist wing funded by billionaires.  If there is class warfare, it is one the Republicans have created over the past 30 or so years by continually redistributing the nation's wealth to the richest.  The country is now on the verge of becoming an oligarchic banana republic.

So this will be theme number one for the 2012 elections for the Democrats: the absolute intransigence of the Republican Party on anything that might have helped the economy or create jobs.  Republican lawmakers would rather cater to the wealthiest Americans (and many of these wealthy do not even want to be catered to!) and to the corporations that fill their campaign coffers.  This needs to be drummed into the American consciousness continually from now to November 2012.

Columbus Day

Columbus Day has traditionally been the day that we Italian-Americans celebrate our heritage. Pride in Italian ancestry is reflected in the old, half-tongue-in-cheek saying, "There are two kinds of people in the world - Italians and those that want to be Italians". 

The Italian character, personality traits, foibles, and stereotypes have been oft commented on.  Luigi Barzini's 1969 classic, The Italians, is a must read.  Also, if you can get a copy of it, Barbara Grizzuti Harrison's Italian Days (Ticknor & Fields, New York, 1989) is a journal of the author's travels in Italy that is filled with keen observations and insight into the land, the people and her own life.   In fiction, Marco Tullio Giordana's "The Best of Youth" follows a family over four decades while capturing Italy during a period of social unrest in one of the best films I have ever seen. 

Columbus accidentally discovered America for Europe on his way to India more than 500 years ago and the world has not been the same since.  For more than 500 years, people have come to the New World.  My own family came here in the early 1900's - indeed, my mother came here as a two-year old immigrant in 1913. 

Maybe this is the thought we should take with us today.  We are a nation of immigrants - everyone of us except, of course, for Native Americans.  And everyone of us would do well to remember this when anti-immigrant rhetoric strikes our ears.  Fear of the Other is a potent political weapon, which demagogues, Know-Nothings and their ilk have used for centuries. Let's not believe their lies any more and let's be fair and just in our laws.

Republicans Turn Back the Clock

The front-runner merry-go-round for the Republican nomination continues.  I try to pay it no attention but it's hard to do given the non-stop coverage by the news stations.  All you can be sure of is that whoever the eventual candidate is he (or she) will be in favor of the same policies that got us into the ongoing financial crisis.  After the New Hampshire debate, Robert Scheer posted an article on Truthdig and The Nation that notes "It’s as if the sound government regulation of the financial industry implemented in response to the Great Depression—not its polar opposite, the radical deregulation fueled by Republican free market zealots—was the source of our banking meltdown...It was precisely the legislation that their party pushed through Congress, and that Democrat Bill Clinton shamefully endorsed, that launched the era of unregulated credit default swaps and mortgage-based securities that came close to destroying the entire economy." 

Meanwhile Congressional Republicans continue to ignore and oppose the American Jobs Act but rather push for funding cuts to government programs they oppose as the price of avoiding a government shutdown.  Sickening behavior.  We can only hope that they will be defeated in 2012 and that the fear mongering, outright lies, and election rigging and vote-denying proposals (identity cards, registration restrictions, changes to electoral college procedures) don't succeed this time around. 

In the New Hampshire candidates' debate, as the WSJ reported, the candidates all strongly supported "the dismantling of government regulations drawn up over 40 years, using a candidates’ debate here to call for the scaling back or elimination of environmental, labor, financial and health-care rules."  This is what a Republican victory would mean in 2012.  But I think it would turn the clock back even further - maybe to pre-Depression conditions.  In the words of George Santayana:
"Those who cannot learn from history are doomed to repeat it."

The Post I Prayed Not to Have to Write

Tomorrow an innocent man will be executed by the State of Georgia.  The final clemency appeal for Troy Davis was turned down by the Georgia's Board of Pardons and Paroles after listening to testimony Monday.  The testimony included that of one juror who says that had she known at the time of the trial what she knows now (see below - ballistics report), she would never have voted to convict.  The Board has the sole authority in Georgia to approve or deny clemency.

Troy Davis was convicted for the murder of a policeman coming to the aid of a homeless man who was being attacked.  His lawyers maintain and the evidence is overwhelming that it is a case of mistaken identity and that another man fired the shot that killed the officer.

For those unfamiliar with the case:

• There is no physical evidence linking Troy Davis to the crime.  The only piece of physical evidence presented at the trial has been found to be false.  Specifically, the ballistics report, which purported to link the bullet fired at the crime scene with a gun fired earlier at a party, was wrong. 
• No murder weapon has been found.
• The police and prosecution staged a re-enactment of the crime for the eyewitnesses and allowed them to speak among themselves.  Of the nine eyewitnesses that participated in this illegal charade, seven have since retracted their testimony.  One of the remaining two eyewitnesses holding to his story has been accused of bragging about committing the murder.

Appeals for clemency have come from former President Jimmy Carter, Pope Benedict XVI, Archbishop Desmond Tutu, Reagan's former FBI director, a Georgia Supreme Court Justice, the European Union and many others.  More than a million people signed petitions asking for clemency.

Neither the facts nor the testimony nor the appeals were enough to sway the Board.  So tomorrow, Wednesday September 20, the State of Georgia will murder an innocent man. 

It is long past time that the United States joined the rest of the civilized world and abolished the death penalty.  In 2010, only China, Iran, North Korea, and Yemen executed more people than the United States. 



The death penalty has never been shown to be a deterrent to crime.  Numerous innocent people have been executed.  And in modern society an alternate exists - life without parole.  There is a strong moral dimension to this.  How can one justify the morality of killing someone who is already imprisoned and poses no threat?  The Catholic Church has, for years, taken a strong stand against the death penalty and American bishops are opposing it.  Although sentiment in our country has been steadily growing against the death penalty, a majority of Americans, a supposedly religious nation, still support it.  (Remember the cheers for Rick Perry at the Republican candidates' debate when the number of executions under his regime was noted by the moderator.)  Until they change their attitude, tragedies such as the execution of Troy Davis will continue to happen. 

Jobs, Executions, Gaza's Children

Obama presented a 450 billion dollar job plan in his address to the special session of Congress.  Preliminary estimates are that the American Jobs Act could put as many as 1 million Americans back to work - particularly because of the infrastructure rebuilding.  Robert Reich in a PBS interview noted that this is a "two-fer" - our roads and schools can use the rebuilding and with Treasury notes at 2% there has never been a better time to rebuild.  As expected, Republicans have begun criticizing the parts of it that are not direct tax breaks.  It will be interesting to see how this plays out - it may be too much to ask that Republicans put country ahead of party and ideology.  After all, if nothing happens and the job situation does not improve, Obama will be out of a job after 2012.  And that, as Mitch McConnell, the Minority Leader in the Senate, has famously stated, is his primary goal. 

Who would be elected if Obama is thrown out of office?  The Republican front-runner is Rick Perry, another Governor from Texas.  This guy is Bush on steroids - at least Bush talked about "compassionate conservatism" in his first campaign; Perry blames the dismal performance of Texas' public schools on the fact that they share a border with Mexico.  His state has the highest rate of hunger in the country and he wants to dismantle Social Security.  More disturbingly, at the first Republican Presidential candidates' debate, the Republican audience erupted in cheers when the commentator mentioned the 234 executions under the Perry regime - the most of any modern governor.  This is one sick political party.  It's time the United States joined the rest of the civilized world and abolished the death penalty.  Sadly, though, a nation gets the government it deserves.  Let's just hope Texas secedes before 2012 as Perry mentioned as a possibility in a 2009 address to the Tea Party.

Finally, a sad note on freedom of speech...the Oakland Museum of Children's Art decided to cancel its planned exhibition of drawings by Palestinian children documenting their experiences during the 2008-2009 Israeli invasion of the Gaza Strip.  1400 people, the vast majority civilians including 300 children, were slaughtered in the Israeli invasion at the end of the Bush presidency.

Global Warming 101 - Part IV

In the last post, we discussed the time frame for the upcoming global warming disaster (40 to 90 years) and one of the three tools at our disposal to mitigate the impact - specifically the reduction of GHG emissions.  This post will discuss two other tools: GHG "sinks" and engineering and technology solutions.

Carbon Dioxide Sinks

"Sinks" absorb and trap greenhouse gases.  Forests, soil and oceans are three natural sinks. 

A significant portion of the current higher levels of CO2  in the atmosphere is due to land use and development.  The World Research Institue estimates that 18% of GHG emissions comes from land use changes.  Specifically, deforestation  reduces the amount of CO2 that can be absorbed via photosynthesis.  As Tim Flannery writes in his recently published Here on Earth: "By 2009, around half of the tropical forests present in 1800 had been destroyed and, at the current rate of destruction, by 2050 most of the remainder outside protected areas will be gone as well."  One solution to this is sustainable forestry enforced by a global treaty (for example, certification that forest products have been harvested sustainably). Another would be a ban on logging in old growth forests.

Soil presents an even larger total sink for CO2 than vegetation.  The burning and natural decomposition of trees and agricultural matter contributes a large amount of CO₂ being released to the atmosphere.  Biochar can potentially store this carbon in the ground, thereby making a significant reduction in atmospheric GHG levels.  The carbon in CO2 can be mineralized in charcoal and "biochar" using a technology called pyrolysis.  Pyrolysis involves the burning of biomass in the absence of oxygen.  The mineralized carbon can then be stored stably for hundreds or thousands of years by mixing it back in to the soil. Biochar also has a beneficial effect on the soil itself.  It can improve plant yields for certain types of crops, improve water quality, reduce soil emissions of GHGs, reduce leaching of nutrients, reduce soil acidity, and reduce irrigation and fertilizer requirements.  The UK's Royal Society has estimated that widespread application of this technology for sequestering carbon can reduce atmospheric CO2 levels by 50 to 150 ppm.

By far, the largest CO2 sink that we have is the oceans.  That's the good news.  The bad news as reported in a 2009 ScienceDaily article: "The oceans are the planet's main carbon sink, but in the last ten years they have become increasingly unable to play this role, in both the northern and southern hemispheres."  As atmospheric CO2 levels increase and water temperatures increase, the oceans can absorb less and less CO2.  The only solution to this is to reverse the trend of increased human-indiced emissions.

Engineering and Technology

The last tool to be discussed is engineering and technology solutions to protect coastal cities, shorelines, and food supply.  Regardless of what steps we take to reduce emissions and increase the absorptive capacity of the land and oceans, there will be a signicant negative effect of the ongoing human-induced global warming.  The extent to which we will need engineering solutions will depend on the extent we are able to reduce CO2 levels.  If we do nothing, then the cost of the engineering solutions will be high.  If we do much, then the cost of the engineering solutions will not be quite as high. 

And if we do nothing at all - if we neither reduce atmospheric GHG levels nor provide mitigation by engineering solutions -  the cost will be many trillions of dollars in damages and, globally, literally billions of displaced persons. 

Dikes, levees and water removal systems for coastal cities will need to be constructed or improved.  Improved heat-resistant crops with low water requirements will need to be developed.  By 2050, the world's population will increase 50% to 9 billion.  Let's hope we all do the right things to sustain these people of the future.

Global Political Will

More than anything else, the success or failure of the efforts to mitigate the effect of human-induced global warming depends on the political will of the nations of the world - the ability to think long-term and to cooperate globally.  The United States, as one of the leading contributors to the current problem, must also be a leader in its solution.  If the Know-Nothing's of today are really concerned about the world they will leave to their children and grandchildren, they better think about what the overwhelming scientific evidence is showing.  Why not give the world an example of American exceptionalism in the best possible way by leading this effort ? 

Final Note: For forecasts of the economic and human impacts, please see the Global Warming Forecasts website.

Global Warming - Part III

As we in the Northeast brace for Hurricane Irene, we are constantly being reminded by our newscasters that this may be a "big storm".  Increased severe weather incidents are, of course, one of the long-term impacts of global warming.  The frequency and intensity of severe weather may vary from year to year but inevitably as more heat energy stays within our atmosphere, this energy needs to be released at some point.  Storms and tornadoes release this energy.

So what can be done about global warming?  Is it already too late to prevent the worst case scenarios from occurring?

Let's start with the last question first.  According to a 2009 MIT report, if little changes from the current situation - i.e., same emissions pattern as today, we can expect a 5 to 7 degree Centigrade (9 to 16 degree Fahrenheit) rise in global temperature by the end of this century.  The results would be absolutely disastrous.  Sea levels would be 20 feet above where they are now causing widespread destruction to some of the world's largest cities and most beautiful coastlines.  In addition, a greater portion of the world will become unsuitable for crops because of temperature increases, increased desertification in some areas, and increased crop loss caused by storms and floods in others.  The result: up to 3 billion people will have to migrate from the increased drier, warmer regions or starve.  And this is the scenario for GHG emission patterns getting no worse than today.  Higher emissions are a significant possibility as more developing nations achieve higher standards of living and the corresponding increase in energy use.

If you want to think shorter term - say to 2050, then just halve the numbers above - it's still a global disaster.

What can be done to prevent this disaster in the 40 to 90 years we have before it hits?  Well, we have three tools at our disposal:
(1) Reduce greenhouse gas emissions
(2) Increase the "sinks" that can trap carbon dioxide and other GHG's
(3) Use engineering and technology solutions to protect coastal cities, food supply and the shoreline
(Note to certain budget-cutting Republican presidential candidates and their supporters: shutting down the EPA as you have been suggesting will not help the situation.  I've left it off the list.  Call me if you'd like to discuss further.)

The primary action we can take is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and the rest of today's blog will discuss this subject.  Reducing emissions has been the focus of the climate change conferences held over the past 15 years or so.  It has been estimated that, to stabilize the climate, the nations of the world must reduce their GHG emissions by 50% from 1990 levels by 2050. 

In the US, 94 to 95% of CO2 emissions come from the combustion of fossil fuels.  Of this, 42% of the emissions come from electricity generation and 33% from transportation.  Any plan to reduce US CO2 emissions should concentrate on these. 

Coal for electricity production is a major source of emissions.  As GHG emitters go, it is the worst.  Natural gas used for electricty generation emits about half the amount of CO2 per kilowatt as coal does.  So replacing coal plants with natural gas plants would go a long way to reducing the amount of CO2 the country releases.  Alternative electricity generation sources that emit zero CO2 such as wind, solar, hydro and even nuclear must be considered.  This conversion of course will take time and should be started now.

More efficient automobiles, trucks and busses combined with improved rail and mass transit projects offer a way to get at transportation, the second major source in the US.  Mandatory increases in the fuel efficency of automobiles is essential.  Fuel cell technology and hybrids that generate their own electricity may help as would using natural gas instead of gasoline and diesel.  Two notes: (1) ethanol does not reduce the amount of CO2 emissions and we are basically converting food into fuel; (2) smarter management of the energy grid and the power plant conversion described above are essential if plug-in electric cars are ever expected to help.  Gasoline emits CO2 in amounts about midway between natural gas and coal.  So if we are just replacing gasoline with coal as the ultimate source of transportation energy, we will do little to solve the GHG problem.

To be continued and concluded in the next blog

Global Warming 101 - Part II

The Carbon Dioxide Balance - why the relatively low amount of human-caused greenhouse gas emissions is doing so much damage

Although the amount of human-caused CO2 emissions (~30 billion tons/yr) is small compared to naturally occurring emissions (750 billion tons/yr), the natural CO2 emissions were, for thousands of years, in balance with the Earth's ability to absorb them in land and water.  Once the balance was upset (primarily) by the burning of fossil fuels starting in the second half of the 18th century, the carbon dioxide that cannot be absorbed naturally enters the atmosphere and stays for a very long time.  It is estimated that about 40% of human-induced CO2 emissions are absorbed - so we are adding 18 billion tons of CO2 to the atmosphere annually.

Other Effects and Complications - why things could be even worse than you thought

There are other more immediate, shorter term effects of global warming besides the potential destruction caused by rising sea levels.  In particular, more intense storms, greater incidences of flooding and the destruction of wildlife habitats are even now becoming evident. 

Before turning to possible solutions, we unfortuantely need to add some more bad news to the mix.   Key to this discussion is the boot strapping effect that occurs as the global temperature increases. 

The first complication is that the ability of water to absorb carbon dioxide (CO2) decreases as temperature increases.  A five degree Fahrenheit increase in water temperature would result roughly in a 10% decrease in the solubility of CO2 in water.  This will decrease the capacity of the oceans to absorb CO2 from the atmosphere and more CO2 will remain in the atmosphere, increasing the greenhouse effect and global warming. 

The second complication comes from the release of methane currently trapped in ice and ocean sediment in arctic regions.  Geologist John Atcheson, among others, have warned of this effect.  A temperature increase of a few degrees in the Earth's annual temperature would cause some methane to volatilize and get into the atmosphere.  Methane is a strong greenhouse gas and this increased concentration in the atmosphere would further raise temperatures, leading to a runaway effect.  There are 400 billion tons of methane locked in the frozen arctic tundra - more than enough to start this chain reaction. 

Alternate Worst Case Scenario - why you really need to hope this doesn't happen

Finally, there is an alternate worst-case scenario to the increased atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gasses.  This involves the shutdown of the ocean conveyor belt that distributes heat through the ocean currents.  The Gulf Stream, which warms Western Europe, for example, is part of this system. 

The scientific term for the ocean conveyor belt is thermohaline circulation.  Temperature (thermo) and salt (haline) content determine the density of ocean water.  Differences in ocean water density drive this (literally) world-scale conveyor belt.  If this conveyor belt receives a big enough shock - for example, large amounts of fresh water from melting glaciers or increased precipitation - the northern oceans will experience a decrease in salt content and density.  This will interfere with or shutdown the ocean conveyor belt.  The result would be somewhere between the Younger Dryas event (10-20 degree F. temperature drop) and a return to a full-blown glacial period.  If this catastrophe does occur, the change will be very quick - not quite as quick as in the movie The Day After - but on the order of a decade.   In any case, it will be difficult to do anything about it once it begins. 

To be continued

Global Warming 101 - Part I

Human-induced global warming is taking the planet into a zone of no return.  The scientific evidence is overwhelming.  The only questions now are: how bad will the damage be, when will it come, and what can we do to mitigate it?

So what exactly is happening with atmospheric greenhouse gases and why should it be of concern?  The three most prevalent greenhouse gases are water vapor, carbon dioxide and methane.  Water vapor comes and goes quickly.  It's in the atmosphere for a matter of days before condensing into rain or snow.   Methane lasts 10-15 years breaking down in time to water vapor and carbon dioxide.  A good portion of the carbon dioxide is removed naturally by being absorbed in plants and forests and dissolved in oceans and lakes. However, what carbon dioxide cannot be removed persists in the atmosphere for hundreds of  years.  And that is the heart of the problem.

Before the start of the fossil-fueled Industrial Revolution, the Earth was more or less in carbon dioxide "balance".  What was being emitted by natural sources was being absorbed by natural "sinks" such as plants and oceans. As we burned more and more fossil fuels and simultaneously cleared forests and jungles for development, we created an imbalance.  Prior to 1750, CO2 levels (determined from ice core samples) held at 260-280 parts per million (ppm) for the previous 10,000 years.  The July 2011 reading at the Mauna Lua (Hawaii) Earth System Research Laboratory was 392 ppm - an increase of 30-35%.  Coincidence?  I think not. 

These atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide have not been seen for at least 650,000 years according to a 2008 report.  The same report also noted that the rate at which carbon dioxide is accumulating is faster than had been estimated by the computer models.  Scientists at UCLA then applied the ice core sampling technique to study the period from 800,000 to 20 million years ago. Science Daily reported on the research in a 2009 article.  The researchers concluded that the last time carbon dioxide was sustained at this level for a long period was 15 million years ago.  Temperatures back then were 5 to 10 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than today.  This would result, among other things, in a melting of the polar ice caps, a dramatic rise in the level of the oceans, and the complete destruction of sea level cities globally - from New York to London to Singapore. And that's the good news...some scientists believe the carbon dioxide levels will rise to 600-900 ppm if nothing is done now to reverse the disturbing trend. 

(to be continued)

Turning the Clock Back

An aol-care blogger recently wrote that she couldn't believe we were again talking about fighting for clean air and water.  Republican politicians, always on the lookout for ways to help their corporate sponsors, have been making loud noises about cutting funds for the EPA.  The average Republican voter (including manyTea-Partiers) is in favor of funding but for most of them this is not a core issue that will cause them to cast their vote for the Democrats.  Same is true of independents...even though they may strongly support the EPA, this is not the issue that will tip the scales toward the Democrats.

Make no mistake about it - if the Republicans take the White House and/or the Senate in 2012, there will be a severe rollback in the funds for the EPA.  We lost eight years in the fight to reduce carbon emissions in the Bush years.  The country and the world cannot afford the further weakening of environmental laws that will occur if the Republicans prevail.

Rick Perry, the latest Republican 2012 presidential wunderkind, won his first state-wide office when he opposed Democrat Jim Hightower as Texas Agriculture Commissioner.  Evidently the Republican right-wing thought Hightower had been too aggressive in asking for visible warnings against pesticide sprayings that would alert workers and citizens when pesticides were being applied to Texas farms so that they could take appropriate protective measures.  That was years ago...but in case you think he's changed check out this youtube video where he denies global warming is a result of human activity. 

Well, he's also questioned evolution as a theory that "has a few holes in it".  Hey - maybe Perry and Bachmann can out-nut each other, split the extremist vote and then a moderate Republican (i.e., Romney) can win the Republican presidential nomination.  But don't hold your breath now - you may have to after the 2012 elections.  Perry has huge corporate backing and massively wealthy individual donors.  He has never lost an election.  Then again he's been nowhere but Texas and we saw what that great state served up the last time they sent their governor to the White House.

Silent Spring, Nuclear Winter, Gaia and Medea

2012 will mark the 50th anniversary of the publication of Rachel Carson's Silent Spring, an event that launched the modern environmental movement and altered human history. 

The late 18th and early 19th century environmental efforts were primarily concerned with conservation and protection of wild areas, prompted by the Romantic era's idealization of nature and the growing awareness that "the frontier" was rapidly disappearing around the world.  There was also a growing awareness of the health impact of the most obvious pollutants of the Industrial Revolution.

But it was Rachel Carson who first opened our eyes to the damage being done to the environment by the toxic chemicals being released daily to the land, sea and air.  Pesticide chemicals based on World War II chemical weapons and nerve gas technology (chemical weapons and nerve gases modified to act as pesticides) were sprayed across the globe trying to eradicate insect pests.  Silent Spring documented the far-reaching impacts of this war on nature.  Governments began to put environmental protection agencies in place and the poisoning was reduced.  People began to understand the inter-relatedness of all creatures and their environment.  Indeed, the term ecology is derived from Greek words meaning "study (or knowledge) of the house".  Mankind took the first steps towards putting its house in order.

As science progressed in the second half of the 20th century, we became aware of subtler, but no less potentially devastating, environmental issues - the impact of radiation from mid-century nuclear testing, the hole in the ozone layer, mercury in the air and in the sea, heavy metals and persistent organic pollutants, species extinctions, and the pending disaster due to human-induced global warming. 

James Lovelock published Gaia in 1979 and took inter-relatedness to the next level.  Tim Flannery summarized Lovelock's Gaia hypothesis nicely: "...[as] cooperation at the highest level - the sum of unconscious cooperation of all life that...[gives] form to our living Earth."  Gaia is a self-regulating mechanism that moves to correct imbalances.  However, Flannery in his 2011 book, Here On Earth: A Natural History of the Planet, also describes and warns against a competing view.  The Medea hypothesis, a term coined by paleontologist Peter Ward, is rooted in the ruthless selfishness of Darwinian competitiveness  - a nature "red in tooth and claw".  Ward argues that, if left unchecked, species will destroy themselves by "exploiting their resources to the point of ecosytem collapse."  If a species competes too successfully, it will inevitably go extinct.

So where are we 50 years after Silent Spring?  Will we be led to our extinction by a ruthless and ignorant selfishness?  Or will we build on what we've been learning for the past 100 years about the interconnectedness of all things?  The time to choose is now.

The Tea Party Recession

How to create a double-dip recession:

1.  Manufacture a totally false and unnecessary crisis by threatening to default on the US debt unless your demands are met.  This will create instability and uncertainty in global markets, threatening retirement funds, pension plans, and 401k accounts as well as large stock-holders.
2.  As part of the solution, demand that the government take money out of the economy while unemployment is at high levels.  This will ensure that job creation will be minimal, the recession will continue, and recovery will be slow.  Without jobs, there is no increase in consumer demand and thus no recovery.
3. As part of the solution, demand that no new taxes be raised even on the wealthiest individuals and the most profitable of corporations.  This will ensure that no possible solution to the deficit will ever exist since cuts alone cannot solve it.
4.  Blame it on President Obama.  Keep lying about the cause of this recession until people forget that it was your blackmailing and discredited policies that led to the current mess.

It's especially important that you succeed with item 4.  You can count on about 30% of the American public to be ideologically blind enough, willfully ignorant, fearful, hateful, or racist enough to believe you without any question.  And if you can suppress the vote enough in the 2012 elections, you can control Congress and the Presidency in 2013.

Was this economic chaos the Tea-Party plan all along?  After all, the aim of the extremist ideologues that dominate current Republican Party "thinking" is, in the words of Grover Norquist, "to reduce [government] to the size where I can drag it into the bathroom and drown it in the bathtub."  Threatening to default on  the country's debt, getting its credit rating reduced, and hamstringing its ability to deal with the jobs crisis go a long, long way to accomplish this. 

Two Competing Memes

"If we believe in a dog-eat-dog world where only the fittest survive, we're likely to propagate very different memes from those that arise from a fundamental understanding of the interconnectedness of things.  In large part, our future as a species will be determined by which of these memes win."
- Tim Flannery, Here on Earth: A Natural History of the Planet, Atlantic Monthly Press, 2010

Primacy of a deregulated market, denial of benefits to the many to protect tax breaks for the wealthiest few, the tepid effort to create jobs...which of these views on life do you think is dominant in America today?

Joseph Marie de Maistre (1753-1821) wrote: "Every country has the government it deserves."  Elections are generally decided based on whether voters are fearful or hopeful.  The 2010 elections, like most in the previous decade, were won based on the stirred-up fears of the electorate.  Elect tea-partiers and you have the kind of economic blackmail that occurred most recently in the debt ceiling debate. 

We need to work to restore the hope that glimmered briefly in 2008.  I remember one of the progressive radio talk show hosts saying just before that election that the country was in such bad shape after Bush that he almost hoped Obama would lose.  Or the Presidency would crush him when he saw how little could be changed.  I don't think Obama is quite there yet but time is running out.  The extremist right-wing now controls the debate in this country and they are winning the battle of the memes. 

Worst of Both Worlds

Well, the global stock markets have responded to the "debt deal" with a quick downward slide.  The Dow is continuing its plunge - now down 850 points over the past 8 days. 

The basic fact in all this is that the US debt was never really the problem.  This  totally unnecessary crisis was created in whole cloth by Republicans.  While the Republicans, led by their extremist right-wing, held the country hostage over the debt ceiling, no action was taken to solve the real economic problem - jobs.  And now with "The Deal" taking huge amounts of government money out of the economy, there is little hope that jobs will be created any time soon.  And until jobs increase, there will be no growth in the US economy.  Enter the double-dip recession.

Obama's encouraging Business to create jobs and Congress to send him a jobs bill is a little like asking the burglars for whom you just opened the door to your home to help you with your gardening. Fat effin' chance.  Let's face it - supply-side economics is in the driver's seat and it just doesn't work.  Politically, Republicans will win both houses of Congress and the Presidency in 2012 if the economy doesn't improve.  There is absolutely no political incentive for them to cooperate.  So much for the effectiveness of the the Compromiser-in-Chief.

As usual Paul Krugman provided some excellent insight into The Deal in an August 1 NY Times article.  After analyzing how The Deal fails on so many levels and is bound to lead the country into further economic problems, he concludes:  "What Republicans have just gotten away with calls our whole system of government into question. After all, how can American democracy work if whichever party is most prepared to be ruthless, to threaten the nation’s economic security, gets to dictate policy? And the answer is, maybe it can’t."

They Just Don't Get It

The bargain struck by Obama and the Republicans averted a financial market disaster but at a price to the nation's well-being. 

Once again the compromiser-in-chief was outmaneuvered by the right wing and came away with nothing other than a debt ceiling increase that will keep the country running through the 2012 elections.  Good for Obama and the Republicans.   Good for the wealthy and corporations. 

Not good for the working class, the middle class, seniors, the unemployed, women and children who will be asked to shoulder the burden of the deficit reduction. 

Not good for the economy as Obama will have no ability to grow jobs by public works programs.  Not good for the economy because the totally discredited supply-side economics which haven't worked in 30 years continue not to work:  manufacturing level is now at its lowest level in two years and the Dow is down 46 points as I write this.  Basically the manufacturing data trumped the debt agreement.

It didn't have to be this way.  Obama could have invoked the 14th amendment and gotten a "clean" debt ceiling increase - just has been done for the past four decades.  Or he could have taken the trickle-down theorists to task - why not raise the income taxes on the wealthy and corporations and then provide income tax credits and payroll tax holidays to those who actually create jobs in the USA?  If trickle down/ supply side economics works then surely they should have no objection.  In the meantime we could use the increased tax revenues to provide more to those in our country who really need it and stop the continuing redistribution of national income to the wealthiest.  Half of our income goes to the wealthiest 10 percent.  Believe me - they can afford the increased taxes and still not go "mansionless".

Norwegian Terror

The tragedy that unfolded this weekend in Norway is a reminder of the dangers posed by hate groups of all stripes.  Once you dehumanize others, you become capable of the most egregious crimes.  As of now, there are 77 confirmed killed and 97 wounded in the Oslo bombing and the shooting massacre at the Labor Party youth camp on the island of Utoya.  The 32 year-old accused of the crimes says that he wished to bring about a revolution in Norway.  The bomb in Oslo was a similar fertilizer and fuel mixture used in the Oklahoma City bombing. 

From AP: "A manifesto published online - which police are poring over and said was posted the day of the attack - ranted that the European elite, 'multiculturalists' and 'enablers of Islamization' would be punished for their 'treasonous acts.' "  Who knows what spurred this far-right terrorist to these cowardly and horrific acts?  And who knows how many support this hatred? 

Our thoughts and prayers are with the victims' families.  

And let's call for an end to all divisive, dehumanizing, racist talk so that this tragedy is not repeated ever again.

The original post listed 92 dead.  The death toll was later revised downwards by Norwegian authorities.

Rewarding the Perpetrators

An excellent article in August's Harper's Magazine describes how we got into the current financial mess and anticipates what the next one will be like.  Thomas Frank in "The Age of Enron" traces the 2008 financial meltdown and ensuing recession back to the attitudes toward open markets and against deregulation that led to Enron's disgraceful collapse.  What amazes me is the support that this "free market" philosophy still gathers as embodied by the large number of Tea Partiers elected in 2010 and currently holding sway in the Republican congressional majority.  The nation elected people with the same failed political philosophy that got us into the mess. 

Frank lists five elements of the current and future corporate scandals and financial crises:

• Deregulation "either by law or by the de facto dumbing down or hacking back of the supervisory offices of government".  This culminated in the Commodity Futres Modernization Act of 2000 that is at the heart of the current problems.  This act created "regulatory blind spots not only in energy derivatives but also in credit swap defaults".  It was the later that was directly responsible for the 2008 collapse.
• The short-circuiting, buy-off, or capture of the private sector's oversight mechanisms.  Enron blazed the trail here but there are plenty of other examples - for example, credit-rating agencies giving "worthless mortgage-backed securities their seal of approval".
• The next scandal will "display the truculent culture of the trading floor."  The Tea Party movement was started by a business reporter from the floor of the Chicago Board of Trade.
• "Unconsciuos journalistic perversity" that has in the past applauded the worst offenders before these collapsed and "kept politicians" who write the regulations Wall Street's way.
• The final (and most important feature) of the next scandal/collapse is that "we will not get it".  As Frank puts it:  "We will convince ourselves that these terrible things happened to us because markets are not free enough - that our only mistake was in not carrying our campaigns for deregulation or tax cuts to their logical conclusions.

With the Citizens United ruling ensuring unlimited corporate cash to conservative political candidates and with Republican governors' efforts to disenfranchise by means of the new "poll tax" (i.e., identity cards and other registration obstacles) voters who normally vote for (pro-regulation) Democrats, the next financial crisis is just around the corner.

And after the next collapse, you can expect the Tea Partiers and the corporate shills to be elected and re-elected because we are that ignorant.

Outrageous

With the Republicans threatening to induce a major global economic disaster by not raising the debt ceiling unless their extremist and unfair demands are met, Obama is showing signs of weakening in his defense of the social safety programs including Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid.  Apparently, these programs are now "on the table" in the debt ceiling negotiations.  Also, apparently, the Bush tax cuts for the wealthy are still "off the table".  This is an outrageous affront to the middle class, the elderly and the poor. 

Instead of addressing the jobs issues that are at the heart of the ongoing economic crisis, the politicians are wrangling over a debt ceiling increase that was executed without controversy SEVEN TIMES during the Bush administration.  This is politics pure and simple.  If the President were a Republican, we would not be having this debate. 

Warren Buffett in a CNBC interview stated that the the Republican-controlled Congress is "trying to use the incentive now that we're going to blow your brains out, America, in terms of your debt worthiness over time."  In May, Buffett stated at a Berkshire Hathaway shareholder's meeting that if the Congress failed to raise the debt ceiling, it would constitute "the most asinine act" in the nation's history. 

Katrina vanden Heuvel offered a solution in a recent Nation column: "Invoke Section 4 of the Fourteenth Amendment, which says that 'the validity of the public debt of the United States … shall not be questioned.' This constitutional option is one that the president alone may exercise."

It will be interesting to see how this shakes out...in the meantime, the Republicans should be held accountable for the ensuing crisis if the US defaults on its debts.  And Obama should be held accountable if he caves in to the extremists of the right - especially if the Bush tax cuts for the wealthy are not also part of the solution. 

Get Out Now

Obama's announcement of the beginning of the troop withdrawal from Afghanistan is welcome news but far from adequate.  By the end of 2012, we will still have more troops in Afghanistan than when our Nobel Peace prize winner took office.  The end must come immediately for this ill-advised war with no defined objective. 

Why any troops remain in Iraq at all is also beyond comprehension.  The Iraq War was based on lies, pumped up false intelligence and fear-mongering from the neo-cons.   Time to end it once and for all.

America cannot afford the lives and money for what has been a serious misadventure in the Middle East.  It has done nothing to improve our security, has provided grist for the terrorist recruitment mills, has shifted the balance of power in the region towards Iran, and has seriously damaged America's reputation and ability to lead by example. 

The days of the neocon dream of an American empire are over.  The reality needs to sink in that we cannot force our will or way of life on others. 

Get out now.