Monday, October 29, 2012

Hurricane Thoughts: One Week Before the Election


Hunkering down in the hours before Hurricane Sandy makes landfall, I've been making calls to Florida as part of MoveOn's get out the vote effort for President Obama. The wind is really picking up. the lights have been flickering off occasionally and I've lost my internet connection three times in the past couple of hours.  Being 40 or so miles inland, though, I don't expect too much trouble from the “megastorm”.


Along with their expressions of concern for us in the Northeast, Floridians have given some practical advice (“We always stocked up on peanut butter and bread to get us through the outages.”) and, with a few exceptions, have expressed their appreciation for MoveOn's efforts. Several of the voters were optimistic about the outcome in Florida. Most thought it was too close to say or thought their state might, unbelievably as it seems, go for Romney. No doubt about it - the first debate took what had been a comfortable lead for the President in the Sunshine State and turned into horse race to the finish. Early voter turnout is high – but that's even in the Tea Party counties so who knows what the early voting portends.


With eight days until the election, the race remains pretty much undecided nationally. The most recent poll in Ohio, one of the Republican voter suppression states, has Obama and Romeny tied among likely voters for the first time this election – i.e., Obama's lead has been wiped out in this critical state. The 2012 election will be as close as 2000. We need to hope and pray that there won't be a similar result as in 2000 because a Romney-Ryan victory will bring us back to the Bush era. We'd see a return to both the domestic and foreign policies of those years. There is too much at stake – health care, war and peace, the entire social safety net, the Supreme Court composition, the economy...one could go on and on. As Kevin Baker wrote in the October Harper's, “To vote for a Mitt Romney—to vote for the modern right anywhere in the West today—is an act of national suicide.”

The odds of Democrats regaining control of the House appear negligible as evidenced by the surge in Romney's share of the popular vote and the fact that nearly all Republican House seats are in “safe” districts such as my own in western New Jersey. Even if the Democrats maintain control of the Senate, Republicans will use the filibuster to the great, detrimental effect to the nation unless wiser heads than may be available in their party prevail. 


Meanwhile, newspapers have been declaring for one candidate or the other – some predictably, some not so. Perhaps the most surprising and disappointing endorsement was the Des Moines Register's support for Romney. This is an important endorsement in a swing state and is a turnabout for the paper which normally supports Democratic candidates. The reason for the endorsement, which came “after great internal debate”, was because the majority of the editorial board thought Romney would work better “across the aisle” with Congress. This has no basis in fact if you look to Romney's record as Massachusetts' governor. In addition and more importantly, it lets Congressional Republicans off the hook for their obstructionist tactics that have seriously delayed the recovery of the economy. Even with Republican cooperation, recovery would have been difficult With their determination to actively obstruct and to make Obama a one-term President, it became impossible.

Perhaps the most predictable endorsement was that of the New York Times. Just a couple of excerpts from the NYT endorsement that I wish every voter would read (or better, commit to memory) before casting his or her ballot...

“Mr. Obama prevented another Great Depression. The economy was cratering when he took office in January 2009. By that June it was growing, and it has been ever since (although at a rate that disappoints everyone), thanks in large part to interventions Mr. Obama championed, like the $840 billion stimulus bill. Republicans say it failed, but it created and preserved 2.5 million jobs and prevented unemployment from reaching 12 percent. Poverty would have been much worse without the billions spent on Medicaid, food stamps and jobless benefits.”
 
“[Mr. Obama] has ended the war in Iraq. Mr. Romney, however, has said he would have insisted on leaving thousands of American soldiers there. He has surrounded himself with Bush administration neocons who helped to engineer the Iraq war, and adopted their militaristic talk in a way that makes a Romney administration’s foreign policies a frightening prospect.”


So what else is affecting the outcome of this election? The unlimited money pouring into GOP coffers from the Citizens United ruling will certainly make a difference. And there is another, less understood impact of this infamous decision: it overturned laws banning employers from discussing political opinions with their employees. Employers have come out in force advising their employees on the alleged consequences of a vote for Barack Obama. Although companies cannot fire their workers for voting a particular way, how would you like to receive political advertising in your payroll envelope, as the US Chamber of Commerce has been encouraging businesses to do?


Then there is the intimidation and suppression effort mounted by Republican operatives. When they have lost in the courts, they have resorted to tactics such as reported earlier this month in Ohio urban areas where billboards sprang up promising 3 years in prison and a $10,000 fine for “voter fraud”. Next door, in Republican-held Pennsylvania, there has been little official dissemination of the information that due to the recent court injunction, one does not need voter id to vote in this election.


Finally, of course, there is the race issue. Four years after the United State commendably elected its first African-American President, we have definitely not entered a post-racial era as some had hoped. Racism is even more widespread now than in 2008. Reporting on recent Associated Press surveys conducted by university researchers, Daniel Politi writes in Slate: “A full 51 percent of Americans explicitly express anti-black prejudice, up from 48 percent in 2008... When an implicit racial attitudes test is used the number increases to 56 percent, compared to 49 percent four years ago. The AP surveys... ultimately found that President Obama could lose a net 2 percentage points of the popular vote due to anti-black attitudes.” I can believe that - several voters that I've spoken to in the swing states said that they know people whose sole reason for not voting for the President is that he is black.


I'm not sure how much good the calls I've been making will do. The people I've been speaking to are good people – some with stories that would break your heart. Their lives will be greatly affected by a Romney-Ryan victory - much more so than my own. So I'll keep making the calls for them and to them. Win or lose on November 6, I'd like to feel that I've done all that I could to help prevent a Republican takeover of the Executive Branch and the disaster, or in Kevin Baker's words, “the national suicide”, that would entail.

Oh yeah, just so there is no doubt, I endorse Barack Obama for the President.
 
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Tuesday, October 23, 2012

Remembering George McGovern


I met George McGovern when he gave a talk at Louisiana State University in Baton Rouge. I cannot recall now whether it was during his 1972 run for the Presidency or, more likely, after it. I went up to him after his talk and we spoke briefly. He was one of the heroes of my idealistic youth, a thoroughly decent man with a populist, compassionate approach to his politics. With his passing this Sunday October 21 at the age of 90, the country lost one of its strongest advocates for peace and social justice. The world lost one of its finest citizens.

The former Senator from South Dakota is most remembered for his opposition to the Vietnam War - the defining issue for those coming of age in the mid to late 1960's, such as myself. He had an understanding of the evils of war rooted in his experiences as a bomber pilot in World War II. McGovern was one of the earliest opponents of our misguided Vietnam policy – his opposition dates to the Kennedy years. If only the rest of the country had the same vision, we would have been spared this great American tragedy. When the war escalated again and again and ground on interminably during the Johnson and Nixon years, he continued to oppose the war, culminating in his capture of the Democratic nomination for the Presidency in 1972.

The son of a Methodist minister, George McGovern was a man of great moral clarity with the courage to speak out even when what he had to say was unpopular with his listeners. In a speech at Wheaton College in October 1972 as the Democratic candidate for President, he was greeted with catcalls and jeers from the conservative audience as students with Nixon banners paraded on the periphery of the chapel where he was speaking. He nonetheless delivered a remarkable speech. Bruce Miroff in a NYTimes OpeEd piece relates it this way: “Mr. McGovern called upon his audience to grieve not only for American casualties in Vietnam but also for the Vietnamese lives lost from American military actions. Indifference to Vietnamese deaths troubled him, so he insisted that Americans confront their own responsibility for the consequences of war and 'change those things in our character which turned us astray, away from the truth that the people of Vietnam are, like us, children of God.'...”

Even after his landslide defeat to Richard Nixon in 1972 and the loss of his Sneate seat in 1980, McGovern remained active in public life – continually advocating for a less aggressive American foreign policy and devoting his time and energy to the fight against world hunger.

He was a midwestern liberal in the mold of the prairie populists and New Deal Democrats that came from that region. That he was two-term Democratic Representative and a three-term Democratic Senator in the very red state of South Dakota speaks volumes to his ability to appeal to the best in voters of all inclinations – he was as Robert Kennedy said “the most decent man in the U.S. Senate.”
 
 
Times have changed. The odds of a return to a progressive tradition in the country's midsection are non-existent. Our political conversation drifts ever to the right and even centrists such as President Obama are painted as socialists.

In some ways, though, times have not changed at all. America has not lost its touch for engaging in senseless and unjustifiable wars. The defenders and benefactors of the miltary-industrial complex remain in control of the national defense discussion and we are treated to the spectacle of a Republican Presidential candidate offering a budget that will add two trillion dollars in unneeded and unrequested military expenditures over the next decade. Forty years ago, we at least had morally courageous leaders such as George McGovern to give us hope that someday things might be different. He will be missed.
 
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Randall Balmer's Des Moines Register Article on George McGovern.  Randall Balmer was at Wheaton College to hear Senator McGovern's speech.  
 

Thursday, October 18, 2012

It's the Economy, Stupid(s)

As we lurch to our Citizens United-fueled 2012 election, President Obama has lost his lead among registered voters and trails Romney handily among likely voters by 6 points, according to the latest Gallup Poll.   Obama dug himself into a huge hole in the first debate and apparently is not climbing out of it.  Amazingly, even after this Tuesday's debate, Romney is considered to be the person most capable of handling the economy.  As the occasionally sage Bill Clinton once said, "It's the economy, stupid."  No other issue resonates more with the American voter.

The prevailing attitude among those favoring Romney appears to be "Well, Obama has had long enough to fix the mess."  They totally fail to understand the causes of the Great Recession, rooted as it is in Republican deregulation ideology and in the supply-side economics to which Romney will return us  (aka, "trickle down").  They totally fail to grasp the obstructionist role of the Republicans in Congress in preventing a more rapid recovery - in the neighborhood of 2 million jobs not created due to their inaction.  The Administration has not hammered on (or even articulated) these misconceptions for the past several years and it is likely a case of "too little, too late" in the closing weeks of this campaign. 

What other factors will be affecting the outcome? 

Voter suppression laws will have less than their desired effect due to a couple of recent court victories.  Pennsylvania voter ID won't take effect before this election and Ohio was ordered to allow early voting the weekend before Election Day.  On the other hand, I spoke to a Florida voter who was concerned that he had not received his absentee ballot yet.  In Ohio, anonymous groups have launched a voter-intimidation billboard campaign to scare people across Columbus and Cleveland—two Democratic strongholds—out of voting. It's a "saturation-level" advertising campaign that goes both deep and wide, promising prison time and a $10,000 fine for "voter fraud." Let's not forget Ohio 2004 election night when what appeared to be a victory for Kerry was turned around in the wee hours of the morning.  Or Florida 2000 when the Republican-controlled Supreme Court prevented a recount and crowned George Bush President.  (Now, there's something to think about - 4 SCOTUS justices will be in their late 70's or early 80's by the end of the next President's term.)

Democrats are mounting strong get-out-the-vote (GOTV) efforts in swing states.   But here we have to be cautious.   The formidable grassroots GOTV effort in the Wisconsin recall election could not overcome the huge money advantage of the Republican incumbent Scott Walker.  In a money neutral race with an informed citizenry, Democratic Congrssional candidates should win in a landslide - Republican Congressional approval rating was down to as low as 7% earlier this year.  But Democrats will be lucky if they can hold onto the Senate and make modest gains in the House thanks to the money pouring into Republican coffers.  For just one example, Republicans have so far spent more than $20 million in an attempt to defeat Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown.

As the French philosopher, writer and diplomat Joseph De Maistre wrote in 1811, "Every nation has the government it deserves."  (The more common "Every country gets the government it deserves" is often wrongly attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville or Abraham Lincoln.)  So to the willfully ignorant and to the artfully misinformed, if you elect Romney-Ryan and a Republican congress, you will have the government you deserve.  Unfortunately, for the rest of us, we will also have the same government and the social safety net that has protected the vulnerable will be shredded.



Wednesday, October 3, 2012

Existence (a novel)

It’s been a decade since writer David Brin’s last science fiction novel appeared. This June, he came back to the genre.   Existence is an epic, near-future novel that speculates about what contact would look like in the "cosmos that we see" - that is, the relativistic universe limited by the speed of light. No warp drives, no wormholes - just old fashioned slower than light travel. As in most near-future sci-fi works, there is plenty of artificial intelligence, bionic modifications, advanced medical techniques, virtual reality, nanotechnology, class strife, factions trying to stop the advance of technology, and, of course, enhanced global electronic networking (the "infomesh" where you are literally plugged in 24/7).

Except when written by world class authors such as Margaret Atwood, these near-future scenarios and the apocalyptic scenarios that usually accompany them bore me. Attempts to create a futuristic atmosphere by peppering the work with obscure neologisms usually fail. Give me a space opera millions or at least tens of thousands of years in the future with imaginative ways to cheat the speed of light any day.

But Brin being Brin, the author puts together a captivating story that debates some of the "big questions" science fiction likes to ponder.

Gerald Livingstone, an astronaut clearing debris from Earth orbit, and Peng Xiang Bin, a shore-home-salvager working the flooded Chinese coast, both come into possession of alien artifacts - holographic crystals with messages from the stars. Powerful political factions compete for control of the crystals, which only communicate through the persons who found them. In time, humans discover the remnants of thousands of these space farers in the asteroid belt. They also discover evidence of an all-encompassing war fought there a hundred million years ago. The crystals contain uploaded minds in a twisted type of von Neumann probe - sent by their civilizations to virally spread their culture to worlds capable of supporting intelligent life. Are all these civilizations now destroyed? Is there an "intelligence trap" that prevents technological civilizations from surviving? Are we alone? Will heeding the crystals' messages save humanity or doom it?

Sapient dolphins (see Brin's Uplift novels), "auties" (autistic individuals with extra-human capabilities), androids, and a couple of Neanderthals all play a role helping "normal" humans in their efforts to understand the crystals. This gives Brin and the reader a chance to implicitly question what makes one human. What is self-awareness and how does a species achieve it?

Existence unfolds through a multitude of interesting characters and voices. Each chapter is preceded by a blog entry from one of the novel’s characters and each major section is introduced with a quote from a scientist or a writer. Two of my favorites are an imagined conversation between John von Neumann and Enrico Fermi on whether we are alone in the universe and the following quote from Charles Darwin: “We need not marvel at extinction; if we must marvel, let it be at our presumption in imagining that we understand the many complex contingencies, on which the existence of each species depends."

These get to the heart of Brin’s novel.   Are we the only technological civilization to have survived? Do we have the maturity to advance further as a species ? Or will we devolve into nationalistic tribalism in a world racked by ecological disaster? 

 

Miscellany

The Existence website is
www.davidbrin.com/existence.html. Besides the usual review blurbs and PR, there are also  comments by readers and bloggers, a study guide, and a link to articles related to Existence and its themes.


Related The Left Bank Café posts

- Anybody Out There? August 9, 2012

- Why Does the World Exist? September 29, 2012


 
Von Neumann Probes

Von Neumann probes and their variants have formed a staple for science fiction works for decades. A von Neumann probe is a self-replicating robotic probe first proposed by mathematician and physicist John von Neumann.   Probes would be sent out in all directions to explore the galaxy for life or worlds capable of sustaining life. Landing on an asteroid, moon, or planet, each probe would be programmed to manufacture additional versions of itself. These probes would in turn be sent further out into the galaxy...and so on until the galaxy was totally explored.

In the 1980’s the von Neumann machine concept generated a debate between physicist/cosmologist Frank Tipler (co-author of The Cosmological Anthropic Principle) on the one hand and Carl Sagan and William Newman on the other. Tipler argued that, given the age of the Universe, a von Neumann probe should have reached the solar system by now; no probe has ever been detected…therefore no other technological intelligent species exists.  Sagan, one of the biggest proponents of the Search for Extraterrestial Intelligence (SETI), and Newman responded that, given the age of the Universe, von Neumann probes would have devoured much of the mass of the galaxy by now. So an intelligent race would not have built them and would destroy them if any came into their star system.