Tuesday, December 31, 2013

Imagining a Better 2014

2013 is winding down.  We've already posted the best news of the year, so let's imagine what 2014 might look like if peace and justice somehow overwhelmed the nations of the world.

The late Howard Zinn wrote in A People's History of the United States that the world would be a better place if  the United States chose to be a humanitarian, rather than a military, superpower - using "this wealth to improve the living conditions of Americans and people in other parts of the world."  This seems like a good place to start.  Can you imagine what the world would be like if the US military budget since the end of the Cold War was used for humanitarian purposes?  Since 1989, the United States has spent more than $13 trillion on its military budget.  The impact that this sum might have had on education, disease eradication, agricultural improvements and poverty reduction is staggering.  As Zinn notes "it was estimated by the World Health Organization that a small portion of the American military budget, if given to the treatment of tuberculosis in the world, could save millions of lives."

By implementing policies that advance the world's well-being, we would take a giant step towards reducing some of the traditional causes of unrest and war.  And in securing our own safety.  It's a myth that terrorists hate us because of our freedoms.  They hate us because of our policies.  Empire has a cost that there is no need to bear any longer.  Peacefully supporting the right to self-determination would show that our concept of democracy extends to all people.

Stopping the flow of arms and military aid would reduce tensions and the possibility of war.  Here at home, removing weapons from the streets and keeping them from the hands of felons and the mentally unstable would make our own country a safer place.  Finally, the United States and other countries with atomic weapons could provide the world with a real example of non-proliferation by dismantling its nuclear arsenals.

Pope Francis has it right.  As the dominant global economic system, capitalism should be regulated so that its benefits accrue to all, not just to a small percentage.  Economic inequality can be overcome by a just system of taxation and regulation.  Or as Nelson Mandela said, "Poverty is not an accident.  Like slavery and apartheid, it is man-made and can be removed by the actions of human beings."

That leads us to a final consideration.  What do we do about racism, sectarian violence and tribal and nationalistic hatreds?   It all comes down to fear and demonization of "the other".  In October  Pope Francis stressed the need to fight "all forms of racism, intolerance and anti-Semitism" and noted that "every time a minority is persecuted and marginalised because of his religious beliefs or ethnicity, the good of the whole society is in danger”.  [Catholic Herald] But what to do about it?  Here's Nelson Mandela again: "No one is born hating another person because of the color of his skin, or his background, or his religion.  People must learn to hate, and if they can learn to hate, they can be taught to love, for love comes more naturally to the human heart than its opposite." 

Maybe peace and justice on earth in 2014 are too much to hope for.  But we can at least make a step forward in our own lives and behavior.  And we can recognize for what they are, those damaging and divisive ideologies and policies that move us away from a better world.









Saturday, December 21, 2013

Sunday Round-Up - December 22,2013

This is the weekly selection of news and opinion from sources outside the US mainstream media.

Iran Sanctions Bill
The Jewish-American group Americans for Peace Now has condemned the proposed Iran sanctions bill circulated Thursday by 26 US Senators.  "The mere act of introducing such a bill at this delicate juncture represents a reckless, provocative and wholly gratuitous step. The Geneva interim agreement with Iran demonstrates that sincere, determined diplomacy can deliver results....If the timing of its introduction weren't bad enough, the substance of the bill appears designed to undermine the initiative launched last month in Geneva and, bafflingly, to undermine international cooperation on Iran....Anyone who is truly concerned about curbing Iran's nuclear program should be outraged by this latest sanctions effort. For the first time in decades, there is an historic and promising diplomatic engagement with Iran, and the entire world is focused on the importance of resolving concerns about Iran's nuclear program and nuclear ambitions. Now is the time for members of the House and Senate to stand up to outside pressure, foreswear partisan and political grandstanding, and get behind the efforts of the Obama Administration and the international community to achieve a negotiated final agreement that does just that."

Juan Cole headlines his Informed Comment post of December 21:"Obama will Veto new Iran Sanctions, Israel War Mandate pushed by AIPAC Senators". 
He then takes it to the 13 Democrats who are cosponsoring the bill. "This behavior is no surprise coming from the GOP, but the thirteen Democratic senators involved are traitors to the party. They are acting at the behest of the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) and other American supporters of Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, who actively wants to torpedo Obama’s Iran talks."  Cole provides a transcript of Obama's comments on the matter from the Friday press conference, concluding that "Obama in his gentlemanly way excused the senators on the grounds that they might have tough reelection fights coming up in which hawkish posturing on Iran might be useful for fundraising and vote-getting. Nevertheless, the White House had earlier made clear that Obama would veto any such sanctions bill." But then Cole adds:  "In fact, the vast majority of Americans approve of Obama’s Iran negotiations in polling and only a minority is opposed. So the rebel senators aren’t playing to the voters, but rather to determined and very wealthy special interests in the Northeast." 
(See December 20 Left Bank Café post for further discussion.)

NSA Surveillance
As President Obama spoke Friday on possible reforms in the NSA spying program (specifically the NSA's holding of telephone records of Americans), new revelations from the documents leaked by whistle blower Edward Snowden were discussed in The Guardian.  "British and American intelligence agencies had a comprehensive list of surveillance targets that included the EU's competition commissioner, German government buildings in Berlin and overseas, and the heads of institutions that provide humanitarian and financial help to Africa, top-secret documents reveal.  The papers show GCHQ, in collaboration with America's National Security Agency (NSA), was targeting organisations such as the United Nations development programme, the UN's children's charity Unicef and Médecins du Monde, a French organisation that provides doctors and medical volunteers to conflict zones. The head of the Economic Community of West African States (Ecowas) also appears in the documents, along with text messages he sent to colleagues."  [The Guardian, December 20]

Selections from recent TomDispatch.com posts
Here are brief selections from and links to several recent posts. 

Former Harper's Magazine Editor Lewis Lapham wonders why we have no equivalent of Mark Twain in today's "second Gilded Age" in an essay about that great American writer, laughter and comedy. (To be published in Lapham's Quarterly's Winter 2014 issue.)
Laughter follows from the misalignment of a reality and a virtual reality, and the getting of the joke is the recognition of which is which. The notions of what is true or beautiful or proper held sacred by the other people in the caucus or the clubhouse set up the punch line -- the sight of something where it’s not supposed to be, the story going where it’s not supposed to go, Groucho Marx saying, “Gentlemen, Chicolini here may talk like an idiot and look like an idiot, but don’t let that fool you. He really is an idiot.”

Commentator Bill Moyers, speaking at The Brennan Center, discusses the impact of money on politics and our democracy, the danger of shredding the social contract to privilege the donor class, and the unfinished work of America in "The Great American Class War, Plutocracy vs. Democracy".
We don’t have emperors yet, but one of our two major parties is now dominated by radicals engaged in a crusade of voter suppression aimed at the elderly, the young, minorities, and the poor; while the other party, once the champion of everyday working people, has been so enfeebled by its own collaboration with the donor class that it offers only token resistance to the forces that have demoralized everyday Americans.

Climate change journalist Dahr Jamail explores "what climate scientists just beyond the mainstream are thinking about how climate change will affect life on this planet."  After discussing how the continuing rise in global temperatures will lead to an ice-free Arctic, which in turn may lead to a release of methane currently trapped in the ice, Jamail writes:
How serious is the potential global methane build-up? Not all scientists think it’s an immediate threat or even the major threat we face, but Ira Leifer, an atmospheric and marine scientist at the University of California, Santa Barbara, and one of the authors of the recent Arctic Methane study pointed out to me that “the Permian mass extinction that occurred 250 million years ago is related to methane and thought to be the key to what caused the extinction of most species on the planet.” In that extinction episode, it is estimated that 95% of all species were wiped out.

(See The $60 Trillion Climate Time Bomb Left Bank Café post for further discussion of the methane release threat.)




Friday, December 20, 2013

Sabotaging diplomacy? What are they thinking?

Yesterday, thirteen Senate Democrats joined thirteen Republicans and began circulating a new Iran sanctions bill with the potential to derail the Iran nuclear talks.  This action came in spite of requests from the White House that Senators hold off on any new Iran legislation while the nuclear talks are in progress.  I'm ashamed to say that New Jersey's own senior senator. Robert Menendez, is one of the leading supporters of the proposal and introduced it with Republican Mark Kirk.

These thirteen Democrats should know better.  They have put themselves in the camp of conservative hardliners in Iran and the Netanyahu government in Israel -  about the only other people on the planet against the historic interim agreement achieved by the G3+3 with Iran just last month. 

The influence of the lobbying group AIPAC (the American Israel Public Affairs Committee), strong supporters of the right-wing Netanyahu, is all over this.   Many, if not most, of the Senators pushing the legislation have received significant contributions from pro-Israel groups, who are heavily influenced by AIPAC.  Menendez  received more than $340,000 in campaign contributions in the six-year period ending December 31, 2012.  Mark Kirk, the leading Republican proponent of the current legislation, received more than $925,000.  All told, the 26 Senators received nearly $5,000,000 from pro- Israel groups. [maplight.org]

The proposed bill sets strong, and, likely illegal, conditions for a final agreement.  "Among those conditions is a provision that only allows Obama to waive new sanctions, even after a final deal has been struck, if that deal bars Iran from enriching any new uranium whatsoever."  [Daily Kos quoting Foreignpolicy.com, Dec.19]  As a signatory to the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, Iran has the right to enrich uranium for peaceful purposes such as energy and medicine.  Denying them this right to the peaceful use of nuclear power is a clear violation of the meaning of the treaty.  This is especially specious when we consider that Israel is a non-signatory to the NNPT and has 80 nuclear weapons sitting 1000 km or so from Iran's borders.  This condition all but guarantees that no lasting détente will ever be reached with Iran.

But that isn't the worst part of this bill.  The bill includes a non-binding provision that states that if Israel takes "military action in legitimate self-defense against Iran's nuclear weapons program", the United States should support it.  Since when does the United States outsource its military and foreign policy to a foreign power? 

As Andrew Sullivan writes on The Dish website:

As usual, English is the first casualty in propaganda. Any act of “self-defense” against a mere “program” is not an act of legitimate self-defense. In international law, you are allowed to defend yourself if attacked; you do not have a right to attack another country just because you don’t like one of their military programs (which the Iranian regime has, in any case, sworn it would never use). That would be a license to shred international law and any concept of just warfare. For the US Senate to proactively bless future aggressive military action by a foreign government when it is not justified by self-defense is an appalling new low in the Israeli government’s grip on the US Congress.

If the Senate goes ahead and approves the bill when it comes to the floor next year, President Obama will have no choice but to veto it.  If he does not, he should hand back his Nobel Peace Prize.  And the Senate should congratulate themselves for caving in to AIPAC and taking us all a step closer to war.

Other Notes
Being pro-Israel does not mean being anti-Iran diplomacy.  Americans for Peace Now is a Jewish-American organization that supports the two-state solution and works for peace between Palestinians and Israelis.  They recently circulated a petition asking Congress to allow time for the nuclear talks with Iran to succeed.  It's a shame that this group of peace activists doesn't have the influence of AIPAC on potential donors.

Update
This afternoon, Americans for Peace Now updated its petition.  You can sign the petition here and send it to your Senators. 

Links
Link to Wikipedia entry on Americans for Peace Now

Link to Wikipedia entry on AIPAC


Correction
An earlier version of this post indicated that Charles Schumer of New York introduced the bill with Mark Kirk of Illinois.  While Schumer was one of the 26 co-sponsors, it was Sen. Menendez, the Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chair, that led the Democrats supporting the bill. 

Saturday, December 14, 2013

Sunday Round-Up: December 15, 2013

This is the weekly selection of news and opinion from outside the US mainstream media.  Today we look at the compromise budget, Syria, and the Israeli-Palestinian peace process.

Mother Jones assesses the defense portion of the new compromise budget passed by the House in a Dec. 13 post: "The passage of the Ryan-Murray budget plan in the House sends a strong signal that the Pentagon's budget is basically untouchableUnder the deal, the military's base budget (which doesn't include supplemental funding for overseas operations and combat) will be restored to around $520 billion next year—more than it got in 2006 and 2007, when the United States was fighting in both Iraq and Afghanistan."  The post cites as Exhibit A in Pentagon excess and lack of project control the F-35, which is called "the pricey plane with a reputation as the biggest defense boondoggle in history".  Originally estimated to cost $233 billion, the program to acquire the new jets now will cost nearly $400 billion. 

Another Mother Jones post, "Can't Touch This", examines the Pentagon budget in more detail.  Among other topics, it discusses the size of the military budget (the US spends more on its military than the next 10 countries combined), the Pentagon's "inauditable" financial statements (the Pentagon insists that they will "achieve audit readiness" by 2017, 20 years after it was required to do so), and ideas from various think tanks that could save billions in the defense budget. 


An Al Jazeera post on Friday reminds us of the harsh conditions facing refugees from the Syrian civil war.  Describing the scene at the refugee tent camp in the Bekaa Valley in Lebanon, Josh Wood writes: "...snow dumped by Lebanon’s first storm of the season melts when the temperature rises a few degrees above freezing during the day, turning the narrow paths between tents into shin-deep patches of mud. Thursday found children standing shivering by a puddle, their rubber sandals sinking into the mud and their pajama pants rolled up in a futile attempt to keep them clean....At least 80,000 Syrian refugees in Lebanon are living at winter’s mercy in tent settlements like this one, according to Dana Sleiman, a public-information officer with the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR).  Hundreds of thousands more are living in unfinished buildings, garages and other structures offering insufficient protection against winter’s bite." 

BBC News noted the increasing concern in the West of "the violence perpetrated [across Syria] by the Nusra Front and the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIS), hardline Islamic radicals linked to al-Qaeda."  Although the position of the West publically is that Assad must go, privately some are beginning to question that position.  "As the year draws to a close, and the West's chosen allies in Syria suffer one setback after another, have policymakers started to ponder the unthinkable - that there's more to be gained from working with Mr Assad than against him?"  

Ahead of John Kerry's trip to the Middle East to try to breathe some life into the Israeli-Palestinian peace talks, Al Jazeera reported on the pessimistic assessment published on Wednesday by the European Council on Foreign Relations: the two-state solution for Israel and Palestine has become increasingly unlikely.  The two-state solution has been the "default negotiating position of the United States and the international community" since the 1993 Oslo Accords.  "According to researchers, the two factors found to place the most strain on a two-state solution were the 'territorial issue' and 'the dynamics of the Israeli political and public debate.' Researchers noted strain added by the decreasing physical space available to establish a territorially contiguous Palestinian state, as a result of ongoing Israeli settlement growth. They noted that as of July 2013, there were 367,000 Israeli settlers in the Israeli occupied West Bank, whereas the total had been a little over 100,000 at the beginning of the Oslo process 20 years ago.  Israeli discourse also strained the likelihood of realizing two states. Levy said the “indifference of the Israeli public” to the Palestinian issue and “a government that includes – something that is relatively new – a significant cohort opposed to two states, and who say that there are other options” has weakened the appeal of the two-state paradigm in Israel."

Meanwhile, the Israeli newspaper Haaretz opined on November 27 that, with the EU intent on preventing funds from flowing to Israeli companies operating on Palestinian land, "Israel is now beginning to pay the price of its deeds in the occupied territories.  Four years after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s speech at Bar-Ilan University, in which he recognized the principle of two states but nevertheless refused to stop construction in the settlements - following the government’s extremist statements and decisions to build thousands of housing units in the settlements; and following Israel’s ongoing harassment of Palestinian residents of the territories - the international community is beginning to take practical measures against Israel’s tactics of deception and the apartheid it practices toward the Palestinians."  In an article published December 13,  Haaretz reported that "The European Union is expected to announce on Monday that it will offer an unprecedented assistance package to Israel and the Palestinians, if the two parties sign a final-status agreement.   The organization also promised to upgrade relations with both parties to the highest level possible for nonmember nations in the event of a peace treaty."


Image of Syrian refugee camp is from the Al Jazeera article and by Ahmad Shalha/Reuters.

Wednesday, December 11, 2013

Best News of the Year

This is The Left Bank Café's 200th post. I thought it appropriate to celebrate the occasion with a listing of some of the best news of 2013 as well as a list of the top 5 viewed Left Bank Café posts.  There are still three weeks left in 2013 but I'm not sure much better will come along in the next couple of weeks.  In roughly chronological order, here are some of the best of this year's stories. 

In March, the College of Cardinals elected Argentinian Jorge Mario Bergoglio Pope.  Choosing his papal name after Francis of Assisi, he gave an early indication of what would become the priorities for his papacy.  The poor of the world moved to front and center.  The Catholic Church has, for centuries, taught that all have an  obligation to the disadvantaged.  What was different about this Pope were the emphasis he placed on it and his symbolic actions of empathy.  Then in late November he issued his first apostolic exhortation Evangelii Gaudium (Joy of the Gospels).  Evangelii Gaudium covers much ground (full text and Porta Fidei website summary) but the items getting the most attention in the Western, and particularly the US, press are his comments on "trickle down" economics and income inequality.  Here are a couple of widely quoted passages that spell out in the clearest terms possible what the application of the Gospel means in a poorly regulated capitalistic system.  

“...some people continue to defend trickle-down theories which assume that economic growth, encouraged by a free market, will inevitably succeed in bringing about greater justice and inclusiveness in the world. This opinion, which has never been confirmed by the facts, expresses a crude and naïve trust in the goodness of those wielding economic power and in the sacralized workings of the prevailing economic system. Meanwhile, the excluded are still waiting."

While the earnings of a minority are growing exponentially, so too is the gap separating the majority from the prosperity enjoyed by those happy few. This imbalance is the result of ideologies which defend the absolute autonomy of the marketplace and financial speculation. Consequently, they reject the right of states, charged with vigilance for the common good, to exercise any form of control. A new tyranny is thus born, invisible and often virtual, which unilaterally and relentlessly imposes its own laws and rules."

(Time named Pope Francis its "Person of the Year" today. [Reuters])


In May, Maryland became the 18th state to abolish the death penalty and thereby join the rest of the civilized world.  The death penalty is still imposed in 32 US states.  In 2012 the US was the sixth highest executioner of prisoners - only China, Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and Yemen killed more.  Quite a group to be in with...

State legislatures introduced and/or passed legislation to control gun violence and foster clean energy initiatives.  In the absence of any Congressional action, this comes as good news.  Needless to say, the state initiatives are already under attack from conservative lobbyists and special interest groups.  On gun violence, the New York Times noted on September 15: "Since the Newtown shooting, robust background check laws or packages of gun legislation were enacted in four states with Democrat-controlled governments — Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland and New York — as well as in Colorado, the site of two mass shootings, in Aurora in 2012 and in Columbine in 1999.  Others states, including Alabama, South Carolina, Texas and Utah, enacted far more modest legislation to strengthen restrictions on the possession of guns by people with mental illnesses or those involved in domestic violence cases."  On clean energy, this year at least 44 pieces of legislation to strengthen "renewable portfolio standards" were proposed or enacted in 18 states.  [CleanEnergyStates.org]  A Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) is "a regulation that requires the increased production of energy from renewable energy sources, such as wind, solar, biomass, and geothermal." [Wikipedia]  Special kudos to Nevada, Colorado, Iowa, Illinois, Michigan, New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts and New Hampshire.  These states did not also have counterbalancing legislation introduced that would weaken RPS's. 

In November, the G3+3 reached an interim agreement with Iran on limiting its uranium enrichment and allowing complete inspection of the country's nuclear facilities.  This is the year's most important diplomatic victory and the decade's most important action to stabilize the Middle East.  Reuters said the agreement signalled "the start of a game-changing rapprochement that would reduce the risk of a wider Middle East war." [Left Bank Café Post of Nov 25Le Monde Diplomatique compared it to "the historic meeting between US president Richard Nixon and China’s Mao Zedong in February 1972... [which] transformed the entire geopolitical scene." [Left Bank Café Post of Dec 7]

The US Senate revised its filibuster rule.  The change reduces the threshold from 60 votes to 51 votes for Senate approval of executive branch and non-Supreme Court judicial nominees.  The move was prompted by the unprecedented Republican use of the filibuster during Obama's two terms to block Obama nominations.  Passed on November 21, the rules change has just seen its first success - Patricia Millett's confirmation to the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit on December 10.  [Left Bank Café post of Aug 5 ranked the filibuster as the #5 threat to American democracy]

Finally, two items from the world of science and medicine make the best news list - the Argus II bionic eye and a gene therapy treatment for blood cancersPopular Science in its December issue named the Argus II bionic eye "The Innovation of the Year".  The first FDA-approved artificial retina uses a video camera and a microprocessor to send images to an electrode array implanted in the back of the eye.  "The optic nerve picks up these signals and sends them to the brain, where they are interpreted as rudimentary gray-scale images....trials are planned to test the treatment of macular degeneration, the most common cause of blindness in Americans over the age of 60."  On the gene therapy treatment, NBC News writes: "In one of the biggest advances against leukemia and other blood cancers in many years, doctors are reporting unprecedented success by using gene therapy to transform patients' blood cells into soldiers that seek and destroy cancer."  The treatment has been successfully applied to adults and children who were "gravely ill patients out of options."

Top 5 (or 6) Viewed Posts on the Left Bank Café

#1 Most Viewed:  Night Fishing at Antibes
#2: 2312 (a novel by Kim Stanley Robinson)
#3: Sunday Round-Up May 26, 2013
#4: When the Blue Shift Comes; End of Time Sci-Fi
#5 (tie): Existence (a novel)
#5 (tie): Masters of War

Correction upon a recount: The Leader and the Demagogue post had several more views than either Existence or Masters of War.


====
Image and quote of Pope Francis is from the usmessageboard.com website

 







   

 
 
 
 

 

Saturday, December 7, 2013

Sunday Round-Up - December 8, 2013

This is the weekly selection of news from sources outside the US mainstream media.  Today we look at the passing of Nelson Mandela, the Iran nuclear deal, the New Zealand climate refugee case, and the activities of ALEC - the conservative group behind some of the most regressive legislation in the country.

"This is the moment of our deepest sorrow. Our nation has lost its greatest son," President Jacob Zuma said last night following the death of the world's most loved statesman, Nelson Rolihlahla Mandela.  Thus leads the Times (of Johannesburg) article announcing the death on Thursday of the iconic South African.  Nelson Mandela was instrumental in ending apartheid in his country and his passing is being mourned by millions around the world.  The Times reports on his fellow South Africans' reactions to his passing and concludes: "His charisma, generosity of spirit, and an unwavering commitment to the wellbeing of his fellow humans, earned him love and acclaim across the globe.  It earned him the Nobel Peace Prize in 1993 and as an elder statesman he continued to champion the cause of reconciliation, peace and human rights, speaking out strongly on issues including Aids and armed conflict."  He was 95. [Link to Times Live "Nelson Mandela: A Timeline"]

Don't listen to the critics of the Iran nuclear deal.  As James Action writes in his post at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace that criticism is wrong.  The agreement will slow Iran's nuclear progress. "To accurately assess the Geneva deal, four questions need to be answered. First, if Iran abides by the agreement, how much further will it be from the bomb than if there had been no agreement? Second, has the P5+1 made disproportionate concessions to get the deal? Third, if Iran violates the terms of the Geneva agreement, is its noncompliance likely to be detected? And, fourth, if noncompliance is detected, can anything meaningful be done about it? The answers to all of these questions demonstrate that the deal is a good one."  He explores the answers to these questions in detail in the postSerge Halimi presents the same message in Le Monde Diplomatique, adding that "after 30 years of confrontation, direct or through intermediaries, Iran and the US are preparing to normalise relations. The event recalls the historic meeting between US president Richard Nixon and China’s Mao Zedong in February 1972... [which] transformed the entire geopolitical scene. The thaw between Iran and US, Halimi writes, "could also help to settle conflicts in Syria and Afghanistan."


The well-funded conservative group ALEC (American Legislative Exchange Council) is behind many of the most regressive, anti-government and anti-democracy efforts in the country - including, but certainly not limited to, voter suppression laws.  The Guardian has some of the best coverage of their efforts.  At a time when Citizens United threatens to undermine the foundations of American democracy and rampant partisanship threatens to make government dysfunctional, ALEC is an organization that deserves careful scrutiny.  Here are links to some of The Guardian's recent coverage.  Scary reading...
December 4: ALEC calls for penalties on 'freerider' homeowners in assault on clean energy
December 3:ALEC facing funding crisis from donor exodus in wake of Trayvon Martin row (yes, they are behind the stand your ground laws)
November 20: Obamacare faces new threat at state level from corporate interest group Alec
(This one is too shameless not to summarize: "A new ALEC proposal, approved by its annual meeting in Chicago in August and published as a model bill for adoption by state assemblies across the nation, would scupper the federal health insurance exchanges set up under Obamacare. The Health Care Freedom Act, as ALEC calls its model bill, threatens to strip health insurers of their licenses to do new business on the federal exchanges should they accept any subsidies under the system.")
August 8: US lobbying group Alec pushing pro-gun agenda despite promise to stop

After New Zealand's high court rejected his appeal for asylum as a climate refugee, Ioane Teitiota has decided to take the case to the Court of AppealsRadio New Zealand reported on Wednesday that "Mr Teitiota's lawyer Michael Kidd said on Wednesday the father-of-three will now take his case to the Court of Appeal, where he will argue that rising sea levels are making his homeland uninhabitable."  With a predicted rise of sea level of a half meter or more according to the latest IPCC assessment report, much of Kiribati will be under water by the end of the century.  The Kiribati native's island country's "elevation is no more than 2 meters above sea level. Its fresh water comes from aquifers. Saltwater intrusion into the aquifers is expected to make the islands uninhabitable before rising water overtakes settlements." [Conservation International website

Nelson Mandela Images and Quotes
Hate and love - quotespick.com
Poverty - activatingthoughts.blogspot.com








Monday, November 25, 2013

A Diplomatic Victory

The G3+3 have reached an interim six-month agreement with Iran on its nuclear program.  This is the best news on foreign relations that we have had for a long time.  Let's hope the war-mongers, neocons, lobby-influenced Congressmen, and Benjamin Netanyahu don't manage to find a way to scuttle it before the next stage.  Even as this past weekend's negotiations were getting underway, Senators, including Democrats, were lining up to impose additional sanctions on Iran.  Pro-Israel groups, mainly AIPAC, contributed no less than $12.5 million to congressional candidates during the period from January 1, 2011 to December 31, 2012 - putting them solidly among the top special interest group lobbies in the country.   Nevertheless, the historic agreement, interim though it may be, was made and initial indications from Congress are that they will allow time to see if the agreement will work. 

As Reuters reported on Sunday November 24: "Iran and six world powers clinched a deal on Sunday curbing the Iranian nuclear programme in exchange for initial sanctions relief, signalling the start of a game-changing rapprochement that would reduce the risk of a wider Middle East war.  Aimed at easing a long festering standoff, the interim pact between Iran and the United States, France, Germany, Britain, China and Russia won the critical endorsement of Iranian clerical Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei...The agreement, which halts Iran's most sensitive nuclear activity, its higher-grade enrichment of uranium, was tailored as a package of confidence-building steps towards reducing decades of tension and ultimately creating a more stable, secure Middle East."  The negotiators noted that this was an important first step, that "the accord created time and space for follow-up talks on a comprehensive solution to the dispute".  Iranian Foreign Minister and chief negotiator Mohammed Javed Zarif said "in an interview broadcast on state television that Iran would move quickly to start implementing the agreement and it was ready to begin talks on a final accord."

Some US allies in the Middle East - particularly Saudi Arabia and Israel - are not happy with the détente in US-Iranian relations.  Netanyahu went so far as to call the negotiated agreement a "historic blunder."   To which should be said that Saudi Arabia and Israel should have no fears.  Just because we are lessening the chances of war in the Middle East doesn't mean they are no longer our allies. The amount of military aid and sales to these countries is staggering.  Israel receives direct US military aid - averaging 1.8 billion dollars annually since 1987 and increasing to 2.4 billion/year in 2008Saudi Arabia purchases billions of dollars of military equipment from the American arms industry.  With a more peaceful Middle East, perhaps there would not be a need for these expenditures. 

Iran is a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.  As such, it has the right to develop its nuclear industry for peaceful purposes.  It also has the obligation to allow periodic inspections. As noted in a Washington Post article from August 2012, "IAEA inspectors are regularly in Iran, but the core of the current dispute is that Tehran is not letting them have unfettered access to all of the country’s nuclear installations."  Apparently that has changed with the agreement reached this weekend. 

Israel is not a signatory to the treaty and not subject to inspections of its nuclear facilities.  It is estimated that Israel has at least 80 nuclear weapons, although they have never admitted it publicly.  The last person to disclose the Israeli nuclear program, nuclear technician Mordechai Vanunu, "was kidnapped by Israeli agents in Italy, taken home to trial, convicted and served 18 years in jail, much of it in solitary confinement." [Washington Post]

Maybe it's too much to hope for but a totally nuclear free Middle East would be a good thing.  And a totally nuclear free world would be even better.  That would give us all something to be truly thankful for. 

=====
Happy Thanksgiving! The Left Bank Café will be back after the Thanksgiving holidays.
=====





Saturday, November 23, 2013

Sunday Round-Up - November 24, 2013

This is the weekly selection of news and opinion from sources outside the US mainstream media.  Today we look at the European Space Agency's SWARM project, cleanup at the Fukushima nuclear plant, Scandinavian countries' offer to help in the removal of Syrian chemical weapons, China's efforts to reduce its air pollution, and the final draw of the 2014 World Cup. 



"The European Space Agency on Friday launched three satellites it hopes will help understand why the magnetic field that makes human life possible on Earth appears to be weakening." [New Straits Times]  The ESA's Swarm project will collect data to "improve scientists' relatively blurry understanding of the magnetic field that shields life on Earth from deadly solar radiation and helps some animals migrate. Scientists say the magnetosphere is weakening and could all but disappear in as little as 500 years as a precursor to flipping upside down."  The last time the magnetic poles flipped was 800,000 years ago.  We are apparently long overdue for another flip - previous flips occurred about once every 250,000 years.

Reuters reported Thursday on a "rare success in the often fraught battle to control the [Fukushima nuclear reactor] site."  The first batch of fuel rods were successfully removed after a four-day operation - a difficult key step in the decommissioning of the nuclear facility destroyed by the earthquake/tsunami in March 2011.  "The batch of 22 unused fuel assemblies, which each contain 50-70 of the fuel rods, was transferred by a trailer to a safer storage pool, the last day of a four-day operation, Tokyo Electric Power Co, or Tepco, said in a statement.  The company must carefully pluck more than 1,500 brittle and potentially damaged assemblies from the unstable reactor No.4....Tepco estimates removing the damaged assemblies from reactor No.4 alone will take a year."

Denmark announced that it would provide major support in the removal of Syria's chemical weapons.  Denmark told the United Nations that "it is prepared to provide maritime help and bodyguards in connection with the removal of chemical weapons from Syria.  Following a meeting of the Foreign Policy Committee [on November 8], Defence Minister Nicolai Wammen said Denmark would agree to a request from the United Nations to provide shipping and warship support to remove Syrian chemical weapons. At the same time Denmark would provide a military bodyguard unit to protect the UN’s weapons inspector in Syria." [Politiken website]  Sweden and Norway have also offered to help in the removal.


In a week with some frustrating news on the UN Climate Change talks in Warsaw, there has been at least one glimmer of hope.  "The latest Climate Change Performance Index published by Germanwatch and Climate Action Network Europe suggests that China is taking action to clean up its act as it tries to deal with its hazardously high levels of air pollution."  This is good news since rapidly developing China was responsible for 27% of the world's carbon dioxide emissions last year.  The report indicates both a slower growth rate in the emissions and a decoupling of emissions growth from GDP growth.  China's slower growth of emissions is linked to its attempts to combat its air pollution.  The report notes that China's "heavy investments in renewable energies and a very critical debate on coal in the highest political circles, resulting from the heavy smog situation in many towns, give hope for a slower emission growth in the future."   [The Guardian, Nov 21]

Finally, in the world of sports, the final draw has been completed for the FIFA 2014 World Cup to be held in Brazil.  Of the 32 qualified teams, Bosnia-Herzegovina is represented for the first time and Colombia returns for the first time since 1998.  I can't say how soccer crazy Bosnia-Herzegovina is, but I am sure people in Colombia are very, very happy.  I was in Colombia at the time of the 1998 World Cup and saw my colleagues suffer as the Colombian team was eliminated at the group stage - managing just a single win against two losses.  Other 2014 qualifying sides that were not in the field of 32 in 2010 are Ecuador, Costa Rica, Belgium, Croatia, Iran, and Russia.  Here's the complete field from the FIFA website.  Congratulations, all!
 
  
Images
The Russian Rokot lifting the three SWARM satellites into orbit is from the ESA website.
Tepco provided the handout image of the fuel rod removal operation at Fukushima.
The photo of Chinese wind turbines is by Yi Lu/Corbis and is taken from The Guardian article.
















Friday, November 22, 2013

Remembering JFK


Fifty years ago today, President John F. Kennedy was gunned down in Dallas, Texas.  I was in high school when we all heard the news.  By the time I got on the subway to go home that afternoon, the world knew that the shot had been fatal.  Just forty-six years old, he had been President for less than three years.  In that short time, he inspired a generation of young Americans to believe that the world could be better. 

His inaugural speech in 1961, given at the height of the Cold War, is his best known.  "The torch has been passed to a new generation" and "Ask not what your country can do for you but what you can do for your country" are probably the most memorable and quoted lines. 

Here is a personal selection of some other JFK quotes from his speeches.

We stand today on the edge of a New Frontier...a frontier of unknown opportunities and perils — a frontier of unfulfilled hopes and threats...Beyond that frontier are the uncharted areas of science and space, unsolved problems of peace and war, unconquered pockets of ignorance and prejudice, unanswered questions of poverty and surplus...I believe the times demand new invention, innovation, imagination, decision. I am asking each of you to be pioneers on that New Frontier.

 
The rights of every man are diminished when the rights of one man are threatened.

If an American, because the color of his skin is dark, cannot eat lunch in a restaurant open to the public, if he cannot send his children to the best public schools available, if he cannot vote for those public officials that represent him, if, in short, he cannot enjoy the full and free life which all of us want, then who among us would be content to have the color of his skin changed and stand in his place? Who among us would then be content with the counsels of patience and delay?
 
War will exist until that distant day when the conscientious objector enjoys the same reputation and prestige that the warrior does today.

We choose to go to the moon in this decade and do the other things, not because they are easy, but because they are hard, because that goal will serve to organize and measure the best of our energies and skills, because that challenge is one that we are willing to accept, one we are unwilling to postpone, and one which we intend to win...

We are not here to curse the darkness, but to light a candle that can guide us through that darkness to a safe and sane future. For the world is changing. The old era is ending. The old ways will not do.

We can help make the world safe for diversity. For in the final analysis, our most basic common link is that we all inhabit this small planet. We all breathe the same air. We all cherish our children’s future. And we are all mortal.

Our problems are man-made, therefore they can be solved by man. No problem of human destiny is beyond human beings.

If more politicians knew poetry, and more poets knew politics, I am convinced the world would be a better place to in which to live.
 

 
 
If by a "Liberal" they mean someone who looks ahead and not behind, someone who welcomes new ideas without rigid reactions, someone who cares about the welfare of the people - their health, their housing, their schools, their jobs, their civil rights and their civil liberties - someone who believes we can break through the stalemate and suspicions that grip us in our policies abroad, if that is what they mean by a "Liberal", then I'm proud to say I'm a "Liberal.” 

 
Yesterday, a shaft of light cut into the darkness. Negotiations were concluded in Moscow on a treaty to ban all nuclear tests in the atmosphere, in outer space and under water…Now, for the first time in many years, the path to peace may be open.... Let us, if we can, step back from the shadows of war and seek out the way of peace. And if that journey is 1,000 miles, or even more, let history record that we, in this land, at this time, took the first step.
 


 Mankind must put an end to war, or war will put an end to mankind. 



Images
James Meredith integrating the University of Mississippi in 1962 is from the Wikipedia entry on the United States Marshals Service

JFK and quote is from Prose Before Hos website
 
Kennedy signing the Nuclear Test Ban Treaty is from the National Archives and Records Administration found at the britannica.com entry

Saturday, November 16, 2013

Sunday Round-Up - November 17, 2013

This is the weekly selection of news and opinion from outside the US mainstream media.  Today we look at the Republican stranglehold on Congress, the Euro-recession, war spending and the deficit, The Guardian editor's upcoming appearance before Parliament, and bee colony collapse.

In an article posted on its website on November 11, Rolling Stone magazine takes up the lock on Congress that Republicans have in spite of the growing gap between their policies and the wishes of the majority of the electorate.  Tom Dickinson explains how national Republicans have rigged the game by "waging an unrelenting campaign to exploit every weakness and anachronism in our electoral system.  Through a combination of hyperpartisan redistricting of the House, unprecedented obstructionism in the Senate and racist voter suppression in the states, today's GOP has locked in political power that it could never have secured on a level playing field."  The redistricting of Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Michigan is described in some detail.  The vast sum of money spent by Republicans in North Carolina to take over the state legislature in 2010, voter suppression laws, activist judges and the unprecedented use of the filibuster in the Senate are exposed.  And, as Dickinson notes, the Republicans are not done yet.  "In a project with the explicit blessing of Republican National Committee Chairman..., a half-dozen Republican-dominated legislatures in states that swing blue in presidential elections have advanced proposals to abandon the winner-take-all standard in the Electoral College. These states would instead apportion electoral votes by the favored candidate of each congressional district – a method currently practiced by only two, small, homogenous states, Maine and Nebraska. Thanks to the GOP's gerrymandering, such a change would all but guarantee that a Democratic presidential candidate in a big, diverse state like Michigan would lose the split of electoral votes even if he or she won in a popular landslide."

"The EU economy will remain flat in 2013, EU economic affairs commissioner Olli Rehn said on Tuesday (5 November), as he downgraded the bloc's growth forecasts for 2014 and 2015...There was little to cheer for Europe's jobless. Unemployment levels are likely to remain virtually unchanged, although they are forecast to fall from 12.2 percent to 11.8 percent across the eurozone by 2015."   The November 13 EU Observer article should be a reminder to us of how austerity programs implemented to reduce deficits slow recovery from a recession.  The "sequestration" cuts, our own version of misguided austerity, will begin having a greater impact in 2014.  Combine this with the fiscal cliff negotiations and the possibility of another government shutdown and we may be in for an interesting ride leading to the 2014 mid-term elections.

Speaking of the US deficit, a Harvard report out earlier this year put the eventual total monetary cost of the Iraq and Afghan wars as high as 6 trillion dollars - or 35% of the 17 trillion dollars total national debtThe DNA India website noted that this corresponds to $75,000 for every household in the country.  "There's a sense that we are turning the corner, but unfortunately, the legacy of these wars, because of decision about the way we fought and funded these wars, means we will be paying the costs for a long time to come," [Harvard Professor Linda] Bilmes said in an interview with The Daily Telegraph. "We may be mentally turning the page, but we are certainly not from a budgetary and financial perspective."   As the Congressional budget discussions proceed, it should be helpful to keep in mind this graphic from the National Priorities Project.


 
In the UK, Guardian editor Alan Rusbridger has been asked to appear before Parliament to give evidence regarding the intelligence files leaked by American whistleblower Edward Snowden.  Rusbridger will appear at a meeting of the home affairs select committee amidst rising criticism from British intelligence agencies and Tories.  "Alan has been invited to give evidence to the home affairs select committee and looks forward to appearing next month," a Guardian spokeswoman said.  A New York Times editorial  warns that the freedom of the press so essential to democratic accountability, is being challenged by the Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition government of Prime Minister David Cameron.



Finally, here's an update on the bee colony collapse that's been occurring around the world and threatening to impact fruit and vegetable production.  Ars Technica reported on October 21 that Italian researchers had cut through the complexity of causes that had surrounded the bee colony collapse.  Infections, insecticides and agricultural practices were all thought to be involved.  "Previous toxicology work in mammals indicated that a specific class of insecticides, the neonicotinoids, could influence the activity of genes involved in the innate immune system."  The researchers started by showing that the same is true in insects. Initially, they worked with everyone's favorite fruit fly, Drosophila, showing that the equivalent genes responded in the same ways in the flies. They then showed that the innate immune response isn't activated when these same flies are exposed to an infection.... Various infections may still be doing the ultimate job of killing the bees, but their virulence could be explained by compromised immune function, caused by a combination of insecticide use and agricultural practices. The results will also provide further support for the European Union's attempt to ban the use of neonicotinoid pesticides."  The relationship between insecticides and colony collapse had been legally challenged by Bayer and Syngenta earlier this year.  

The image of the European honey bee is from Wikipedia.


Wednesday, November 13, 2013

Assassinations and History


November 22 is the fiftieth anniversary of President John Kennedy's assassination.  It is a time to reflect on how the world may have been different without the political assassinations that have marred human history - not just JFK's but others that might have made a difference.  
 
John Kennedy's assassination in 1963 was the fourth of a US president. It was the first of three assassinations in the 1960's that took the lives of charismatic liberal political leaders in the United States. The civil rights leader Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr. and JFK's brother and Democratic Presidential hopeful Robert F. Kennedy were both killed within a two-month span in 1968. How much different would the America and the world have been had these men lived? 
 
November 4 was the eighteenth anniversary of the assassination of Israeli prime minister and Nobel Peace Prize winner Yitzhak Rabin by a right-wing Israeli radical.  It now appears that the death of Rabin's fellow peace prize winner PLO leader Yasser Arafat  on November 11, 2004 was also an assassination - by polonium poisoning by person or persons unknown. As reported in Al Jazeera on November 6: "A 108-page report by the University Centre of Legal Medicine in Lausanne, which was obtained exclusively by Al Jazeera, found unnaturally high levels of polonium in Arafat’s ribs and pelvis, and in soil stained with his decaying organs."
 
Vietnam
A question long debated has been whether John Kennedy would have escalated the Vietnam War as did his successor Lyndon Johnson or whether Kennedy would have withdrawn American forces. An argument could be made either way. On the one hand, Kennedy subscribed to the failed domino theory used as justification for this tragic war and Johnson inherited Kennedy's "best and brightest" advisors. On the other hand, Kennedy was growing increasingly skeptical of the war and disenchanted with his advisors.
Robert Kennedy's assassination almost certainly delayed the end of the Vietnam War. If Robert Kennedy went on to win the Democratic nomination in 1968, he would have defeated Nixon. Certainly, Bobby Kennedy would have ended the Vietnam War long before 1975. Tens of thousands of lives would have been saved.
 
Domestic Programs and Politics
The assassinations of the Kennedy's and of Martin Luther King likely did not have much effect on the domestic programs of the 60's and early 70's. In 1964, the election of the most liberal Congress in decades with Johnson's landslide victory over conservative Barry Goldwater led to the enactment of the most progressive legislation since the New Deal. The Civil Rights Movement made significant progress with the Civil Rights Acts of 1964 and 1968, the Voting Rights Act of 1965, and the Immigration and Nationality Services Act of 1968. Lyndon Johnson's other Great Society programs, some of which were stalled initiatives from John Kennedy's "New Frontier", were enacted by the liberal Congress and then expanded by Republican Presidents Nixon and Ford. The "War on Poverty" (e.g., the Economic Opportunities Act of 1964), medical care for the elderly and the poor (Medicare and Medicaid), Federal aid to education provided by the Elementary and Secondary Education Act and the Higher Education Act, improvements to Social Security - all came about in this period.
Although the assassinations of the Kennedy's and of Martin Luther King may not have made a great difference in the domestic programs of the 60's, the deaths of these great leaders did effect the national political atmosphere. JFK's call for the new generation to step forward in leading the country to the beckoning New Frontier inspired many. MLK's message of unity, brotherhood, and social justice and RFK's idealistic vision may have counteracted or mitigated the mean-spiritedness and stigmatization of the poor, the greed and the hatred of government that has developed with such force in some quarters over the past three or four decades. There is no way of knowing how this would have played out in the long term but we surely would be looking at a better version of than America democracy than we are now.
 
 
Israel and Palestine
 
Probably no single event has had as great an impact on the Israeli-Palestinian peace process as the assassination of Yitzhak Rabin by a right-wing Israeli fanatic in 1995. The assassin was angered at Rabin's signing of the Oslo Accords which were to form the basis of the two-state solution. Rabin was succeeded by fellow Labor Party member Shimon Peres until 1996. A 17 year period of primarily right-wing Israeli governments began with the formation of the government of Benjamin Netanyahu in 1996. The years since Rabin's death have been marked by little-to-no progress in the creation of a viable state for the Palestinian people. No Israeli since Rabin has been far-sighted enough to engage the Palestinians. No Israeli since Rabin has been able to bring Israelis back from, in Chris Hedges' words, "the psychosis of permanent war." Had the promises of the Oslo Accords been acted upon and a Palestinian state created, the Middle East would be a more stable, more secure region today. Israel would be at peace and unthreatened. Palestinians would have attained justice.
Images
JFK and quote is from Prose Before Hos website
Yitzhak Rabin is from Wikipedia entry.

Saturday, November 9, 2013

Sunday Round-Up - November 10, 2013

This is the weekly selection of news and opinion from sources outside the US mainstream media.  Today we look at the deteriorating Israeli-Palestinian peace process. Sources include Le Monde Diplomatique, Al Jazeera, boston.com, and Haaretz.

Israeli settlements on Palestinian land, considered illegal by international organizations and by most countries, continue to be approved and Palestinian anger over the continued settlement building is rising.  John Kerry is in the Middle East trying to save the peace talks.

January 2011 map from Peace Now. Blue areas are Israeli settlements
in the West Bank; the brown areas are Palestinian localities.  Peace Now
is "Israel's most veteran and diverse peace movement with over 10,000
members from the Middle East and around the world." 

The Background
An article in the November Le Monde Diplomatique describes the significance of the settlements. Laurence Bernard writes that the settlements, are "jeopardising the two-state solution.  The West Bank has...been reduced to an archipelago of little urban islands by the Separation Barrier, the line of which annexes nearly 10% of Palestine’s territory.... 60% of all Palestinian territory ...
remains under complete Israeli control. This [controlled area] already has 350,000 Israeli settlers living in 35 settlements, compared with 180,000 Palestinian residents. The UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs is concerned at the growth of violence by settlers, the denial of construction permit applications to Palestinians by the Israeli civil administration..., and the systematic demolition of buildings erected 'without a permit'."  Bernard also discusses other key issues.
  • Water - "Palestinians only have 20% of the West Bank’s water resources...[and] use only 25% as much water per person per day."
  • East Jerusalem - "250,000 settlers living in Palestinian areas"
  • the blockade of Gaza, "already one of the most densely populated territories in the world", - "[the] Israeli...buffer zone along the barrier denies residents access to 17% of the territory (and 33% of the farmable land)...the outer limit of the fishing zone, set at 20 nautical miles under the Oslo accord, is now reduced to between 3 and 6 miles."
  • Palestinian refugees  - "nearly five million expelled from their villages in 1948 and 1967.  A third still live in 'temporary' camps in Gaza, the West Bank, Jordan, Lebanon and Syria; 3.5 million rely on the UN Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA) for basic health and education."  
So what can the EU do to make "credible its official support for an 'independent, democratic, contiguous and viable' Palestinian state" ?  Bernard recommends that the EU build on its recent directive that will make Israeli entities operating on Palestinian land "ineligible for grants, prizes and financial instruments" from the EU.  The EU, Israel's largest trading partner, could "threaten reprisals under the EU-Israel Association Agreement, ... freeze specific accords,... and suspend negotiations on strengthening the Association Agreement.  It could also stop importing goods manufactured or assembled in Israeli settlements in the West Bank." Finally, the EU could take action on the arms trade with Israel, the world's fourth leading arms exporter.  The arms trade "continues to grow in spite of the EU code of conduct that prohibits sales of military equipment that  might be used for internal repression or international aggression, or contribute to regional instability." 

Kerry's Trip to the Middle East

Al Jazeera reported on Wednesday on Kerry's efforts:  "Acknowledging that the negotiations had run into difficulties, Kerry spoke of a need for 'real compromises and hard decisions' from both sides...  Palestinians...have said an Israeli plan announced last week for 3,500 more settler homes in the occupied West Bank was a major obstacle to the success of the negotiations....'The Israeli side is determined to continue its settlement and we cannot continue negotiations under these unprecedented settlement attacks,' [a senior Palestinian official] said after a meeting of Israeli and Palestinian negotiators....  The settlements that Israel has built in the West Bank and East Jerusalem, territories it captured in the 1967 Middle East war, are considered illegal by most countries."

AP Diplomatic Writer Matthew Lee's story on Kerry's trip to Jordan was reported on Thursday on boston.com.  Kerry went to Jordan to gain support from this close US Arab ally for the stalled peace process.  Kerry "issued a stark warning to Israel on Thursday, saying it faces international isolation and a possible explosion of violence if it does not make progress in peace efforts with the Palestinians.  Kerry issued the blunt remarks in a joint interview with Israeli and Palestinian television channels, ensuring the message would reach its intended audience.  'The alternative to getting back to the talks is the potential of chaos. I mean does Israel want a third intifada?' Kerry said, using the term for past Palestinian uprisings against Israeli occupation....'If we do not find a way to find peace, there will be an increasing isolation of Israel. There will be an increasing campaign of de-legitimization of Israel (that) has been taking place in an international basis,' he said...'What is the alternative to peace?' Kerry asked at a joint news conference with Jordanian Foreign Minister Nasser Judeh. 'Prolonged continued conflict.'

Haaretz provided additional details of Kerry's comments on "Israel’s decision to build roughly 5,000 new housing units in East Jerusalem and other settlements, alongside the release of a group of Palestinian prisoners. Kerry said settlement expansion sends a message that 'perhaps you’re not really serious,' during an interview which aired on Israel’s Channel 2, as well as in Palestinian media.  The lengthy interview ...focused on the struggling peace negotiations and Kerry’s efforts to prevent a total collapse in talks between Israel and the Palestinians.   Kerry denied the claims made by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, that there had been an agreement between the two sides stipulating that each wave of Palestinian prisoners released would be accompanied by settlement expansion. According to Kerry, the deal was that Israel would release Palestinian prisoners in exchange for a halt of unilateral Palestinian actions at the United Nations during the nine months of negotiating.   'Palestinian leadership made it absolutely clear they believe the settlements are illegal, they object to the settlements and they are in no way condoning the settlements, but they knew Israel would make some announcements,' said Kerry."





Wednesday, November 6, 2013

The Off-Year Elections and What They Mean

Tea Party nemesis Republican Chris Christie won a second term as New Jersey governor by a wide margin - more than 20 points - over the Democratic challenger.  Across the river in New York, progressive Bill de Blasio won in a landslide, 73-24, over his Republican opponent, thereby becoming the first Democratic mayor of New York in two decades.  In Virginia, Democrat Terry McAuliffe won the governorship by 2.5% over Tea Party favorite Ken Cuccinelli.

So what is the significance of these off-year election results and what do they  mean for 2014 and 2016?

Bi-partisanship works in a blue state.  Democrats generally believe that government can help people and will work with a Republican who is not too extreme.
  • Christie is a popular governor who has made much of his ability to work with Democrats.  His handling of the damage wreaked by Superstorm Sandy was universally praised.  Christie had the support of several state Democratic leaders and politicians and he was endorsed by most of the state's newspapers, including the Newark Star-Ledger
  • According to exit polls, Christie won majorities of women and Hispanics and increased his vote among African-Americans and union households.  Still, his percentage of the vote (60%) was less than the 1985 victory of Republican Tom Kean (69%).   
  • New Jersey Democrats retained control of the legislature in spite of Christie's landslide win.
The Tea Party is down but not out.  They are still passionate about their causes and vote in droves when they are.
  • Tea Party extremism is not as popular in New Jersey as in many other states.  Christie's victory there says nothing about his ability to win the Republican Presidential primary should he choose to run in 2016. 
  • Even after the government shutdown, Republicans almost managed to win the governorship in Virginia.  Republican candidate Ken Cuccinelli made "Obamacare" the issue in the weeks after the shutdown and almost pulled off a victory. 
  • Six per cent of the vote in Virginia went to the Libertarian candidate.  This was double the margin of McAuliffe's victory.  Though no one can say how this Libertarian vote would have split, I think it's fair to say that McAuliffe owed his victory almost as much to this as Bill Clinton did to the Ross Perot vote in 1992 and George Bush to the Florida Ralph Nader vote in 2000.  (Okay, hanging chads and the Supreme Court had more to do with Bush's victory than the Nader vote.  Still Nader's 97,000 votes dwarfed the 537 vote margin by which Bush won Florida and thus the Presidency.)

Money and voter turnout (still) win elections
  • McAuliffe had a big edge over Cuccinelli in money spent as did Democrats in the New Jersey legislative races.
  • Thank God for the Democrats of (especially) northern Virginia.  As they did in the Presidential elections of 2008 and 2012, voters in the northern counties turned out in enough numbers to counteract the majority Republican vote in other parts of the state.
  • Obama's Presidential victories in 2008 and 2012 were the result of the same dynamics.  He outspent his opponents and voter turnout was key. 
  • Citizens United will bring essentially unlimited money into the 2014 and 2016 elections, primarily on the Republican side. Democrats had better begin planning now on how they will energize their base to a) not lose the Senate in 2014, b) pickup at least a few seats in the gerry-mandered House districts, and c) win the 2016 Presidential election. 
New York City is (still) overwhelmingly Democratic, progressive and ethnic.
  • In electing progressive Bill de Blasio by nearly 50 points, New Yorkers returned to their roots.  The most liberal of the candidates in the Democratic field, de Blasio campaigned on a program to lessen New York's gap between the rich and the poor - provide universal pre-K, end stop-and-frisk, build or preserve 200,000 units of affordable housing.
  • He is the fourth Italian-American to serve as mayor of the city.  He joins fellow Italian-American New York Governor Andrew Cuomo in running one of the most progressive cities in one of the most progressive states in the country.  De Blasio's  maternal grandparents were Italian immigrants.  He is married to an African-American woman and his inter-racial family was at the center of his campaign. 
  • At 6' 5", he is 15" taller than the first Italian-American mayor of New York, Fiorello LaGuardia.  Let's hope height is not inversely proportional to ability.  Fiorello LaGuardia, a progressive, reformist "New Deal Republican", is widely regarded as one of the 2 or 3 greatest mayors in US history.
Image
The photo of Governor Christie and President Obama is from The Governor's Office/Tim Larsen.