It's one month until the 2014 midterm elections. Much has changed since the 2010 midterms, the first held after the infamous Citizens United decision. In 2013 the Supreme Court conservatives gutted the Voting Rights Act. In their 2014 McCutcheon decision, they completed their Citizens United work to allow unlimited amounts of cash to be spent to influence elections. The well-organized and well-funded Republican campaign attacking voting rights bore fruit across the country - 22 mostly Republican-controlled states have passed restrictive voting laws. The House districts gerrymandered by state governments controlled by Republicans after the 2010 census and elections make it a foregone conclusion that Republicans will control the House of Representatives for the foreseeable future. This will happen in spite of Congress' 11 percent approval rating and in spite of Republicans' utter lack of programs to help the country (no jobs bill, failure to extend long-term unemployment benefits, cuts to social programs, no comprehensive action on immigration reform or the environment or gun control, a government shutdown, etc., etc.,) As for the state governor races, the Democrats may pick up a handful of seats held by Republicans but perhaps not enough to put them in the majority. The only remaining question on the November election results is: "How can the Democrats retain control of the Senate?" (For more detail on the recent polls for the House and state Governor races, see below.)
The Senate races are key for the Democrats. Democrats and Independents who caucus with them hold a 55-45 majority. There are 21 Democratic and 15 Republican seats to be decided. Loss of the Senate majority would ensure an end to what's left of Obama's agenda and, just as importantly, an end to any hope for progressive or even moderate appointments to the judiciary. Republicans continue to find ways to slow or prevent the approval of Obama's judicial nominees in the current Congress even with the Democratic majority in the Senate. There are currently 63 judicial vacancies in the Federal courts. It is unlikely that the Senate will be able to confirm judges for even a quarter of these vacancies before the next Congress is seated.
In August, I looked at the key seats in play in red or swing states currently with a Democratic incumbent or retiring Senator. I concluded then that the Senate would be evenly split between Democrats and Republicans and that Democrats would barely hold onto a "majority" by the grace of the Vice-Presidential tie-breaking vote. Here's an update on those races based on more recent polls. The August poll results are shown in parentheses. The end result is one seat (Alaska) swings from Democratic to Republican.
Louisiana - Cassidy (R) 48.0% (46.8%) v. Landrieu (D) 43.4% (45.8%) - Republican lead up by 3.6%.
Alaska - Sullivan (R) 45.7% (41.0%) v Begich (D) 41.0% (44.0%) - Republican lead of 4.7% in October vs. Democratic lead of 3% in August
Arkansas - Cotton (R) 45.8% (47.4%) v. Pryor (D) 42.2% (43.8%) - Republican lead remains same as in August.
North Carolina - Hagan (D) 45.0% (45.8%) v. Tillis (R) 40.8% (44.0%) - Democratic lead up by 4.2%.
Virginia - Warner (D) 49.3% (51.0%) v. Gillespie 35.7% (33.7%) - Democratic lead down by 3.7%
Montana - Daines (R) 54.0% (51.7%) v. Walsh (D) 35.0% (38.0%) - Republican landslide
South Dakota - Rounds(R) 40.3% (44%) v. Weiland (D) 27.7% (29.5%) - Republican lead still in double digits
Iowa - Ernst (R) 44.6% (44.8%) v. Braley (D) 41.8% (44.0%) - Republican lead up by 2%
Michigan - Peters (D) 44.0% (43.8%) v. Land (R) 37.5% (39.2%) - Democratic lead up by 1.9%
But there's more..since August, two Democratic candidates from "blue" states - Udall in Colorado and Shaheen in New Hampshire - have fallen into close races with several recent polls showing them losing in November. If we assume the loss of at least one of these seats, then in these 11 key Senate races, Democrats will hold onto 4 seats and Republicans would capture 7. This would give Republicans a 52-48 majority in the Senate.
So how can a Republican takeover of the Senate be prevented?
(1) Vote.
(2) Canvass.
Facts and being on the right side of issues will never overcome the fears, lies and, at times, hatred being generated by the right-wing echo chamber. These drums have been beating since Obama won the Democratic nomination in 2008. By 2010, the lies about the Affordable Care Act, about the government coming for your guns, about the "failure" of the stimulus, etc., etc., had taken firm hold in the American political psyche. There's no turning that around in one month.
But Dems can still "get out the vote". Turnout will be critical if Democrats are to retain control of the Senate. But mid-term elections have notoriously poor turnout. Add to this the voter suppression laws that went into effect in many of the "Senate-crucial" states and the task in front of Democrats becomes daunting. If Democrats are to have any chance to hold the Senate, the electorate of 2014 needs to look like the electorate of 2008 rather than the electorate of 2010. Canvass, canvass, canvass. And, when you're thoroughly exhausted, canvass some more.
A number of organizations have set up "get out the vote" and "protect the vote" efforts. If you are in a state with a key Senate race, check with your local Democratic Committee or ACLU office. If you, like me, are in a safely Democratic state, volunteer for telephone canvassing shifts. Here's a link to the MoveOn effort:
MoveOn Home Shift signup - you can sign up for 2-1/2 hour shifts here
http://pol.moveon.org/2014calls/home_shift_signup.html?id=102563-4769646-0RY74Qx&t=5
And, of course, vote and encourage all like-minded progressives to vote.
ACLU Voter Information Page
Related
House of Representatives and Governor Races
Currently the Republicans hold a 34 seat majority in the House. Looking at the polls in August, I concluded that the best Democrats could hope for this year would be to reduce the Republican majority to 25 seats, but a more likely figure is that the Republicans majority would increase to 43 seats. So the more likely scenario would be that Republicans will pick up 9 seats in next month's elections. I see no reason to change that conclusion based on more recent polls, which show no noticeable change in voter sentiment.
In the same post, I looked at five governor's races - Florida, Wisconsin, Texas, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. The governors of these states are all currently Republicans. Republicans currently govern 29 of 50 states. The conclusion now is the same as the conclusion then. Democrats should be able to pick up a few governor seats - but don't expect a dramatic change. (August poll results are in parentheses.)
Florida - Crist (D) 43.4% (43.8%) v. Scott (R) 42.0% (42.5%) Democratic lead grew by 0.1%. Tossup.
Wisconsin - Walker (R) 47.8% (47.0%) v. Burke (D) 46.0% (46.3%) Republican lead grew by 1.1%. Tossup but moving towards Republican.
Texas - Abbott (R) 52.0% (50.5%) v. Davis (D) 39.3% (36.8%) Republican lead shrunk by 0.5% but still firmly Republican.
Ohio - Kasich (R) 54.0% (47.0%) v. FitzGerald (D) 32.8% (38.8%) - Republican lead grew by 12%. Republican landslide.
Pennsylvania - Wolf (D) 52.0% (52.0%) v. Tom Corbett (R) 36.1% (39.0%) - Democratic lead grew by 2.9%. Democratic victory.
Polling information in this post is from the Real Clear Politics website.
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