Sunday Roundup - August 31, 2014

This is the weekly selection of news and opinion from outside the US corporate mainstream media.  Today we look at the Eurozone recession, discovery of traces of one of the first stars, the rise of ISIS, and Gaza.

Eurozone Recession
It's yet another reminder of the fallacy of deficit reduction and spending cuts in the midst of a recession. Unemployment in the Euro-zone remains high and it's not just a reflection of 25% unemployment in Greece and Spain. With the exception of Germany, none of the core European countries has had any recovery to speak of, with employment lower and unemployment substantially higher than before the crisis. The table below...shows the percentage change in GDP, employment and unemployment between the pre-crisis peak and the first quarter of 2014: 

(The Interpreter website, August 26)

Greece and Spain have been especially hard hit.  Speaking of the rampant unemployment in Greece, Dimitri B. Papadimitriou, in a blog for TheWorldPost, writes: The commitment to economic austerity policies by the "troika" - the European Central Bank, the European Commission, and the International Monetary Fund - hasn't wavered. Meanwhile, the country's unemployment rate has soared to yet another unexpected high. In a population of 9.3 million, 1.3 million are out of work....Employment has collapsed under measures demanded by the trio of lenders, and acquiesced to by three successive Greek governments. The trough is wider and longer than it was during the Great Depression...Greece has become a template for how an austerity regime crushes a workforce. The highest unemployment rate in Europe is the disastrous fallout of the world's most rigorously enforced fiscal tightening policy.  The solution? The Levy Economics Institute of Bard College, which Papdimitriou leads, estimated what the outcomes would have been if Greece had enacted a broad employment program in 2012. Work would be dedicated to areas like physical and information infrastructure, the environment, social services, education, and culture.  At the low-midrange of the scale, Antonopoulos simulated the direct public creation of 300,000 jobs at today's wages. Multiplier effects - indirect results - increased the total gains to almost 400,000 mainly skilled positions. That is, government jobs would fuel the creation of those additional jobs in private industry.  Unemployment was reduced by roughly 30 percent. GDP rose about 4 percent.  Pointing out that jobs-targeted stimulus programs have succeeded worldwide in the past, Papadimitiou concludes: An international dialogue should begin now. It might open with an invitation to the Troika: Explain why Greece should not start a jobs guarantee policy today.

Traces of one of the first stars

The most massive stars in the early universe would eject material
 high in iron when they exploded. Astronomers can read the composition
 of the next generation of stars to determine what made up their ancestors.Credit: National Astronomical Observatory of Japan
(Image appeared in the space.com article)

A team working at the National Astronomical Observatory of Japan has detected traces of one of the first stars formed in the early universe.  An ancient star in the halo surrounding the Milky Way galaxy appears to contain traces of material released by the death of one of the universe's first stars...The chemical signature of the ancient star suggests that it incorporated material blasted into space by a supernova explosion that marked the death of a huge star in the early universe — one that may have been 200 times more massive than the sun. The first stars in the cosmos, known as Population III stars, formed from the hydrogen and helium that dominated the early universe. Computer simulations suggest that the first stars formed 100 million to 250 million years after the Big Bang - or about 13.5 billion years ago.  Although massive first generation stars no longer exist, their descendants do.  Scientists studying the composition of a 13 billion year-old, second generation star just 1,000 light years from Earth determined that it was formed from the material blown off of a single massive ancient star.  [space.com, August 21]

The Rise of ISIS
The Democracy Now! website posted two interviews in August on the rise of ISIS.  

One is an interview with Vijay Prashad, professor of international studies at Trinity College and a columnist for Frontline, where he has been writing extensively about Islamic State.  There’s a very dangerous game going on here, both from Hillary Clinton, from the Republicans, from Tony Blair. They want to make the case that the Islamic State is a child of the Syrian war. They want to deny the fact that the Islamic State has its roots fundamentally in the destruction of the Iraqi state by the American invasion in 2003. You know, it’s very easy to destroy a state. It took the Iraqi people over a hundred years to build institutions; that was destroyed by the Americans in an afternoon. Once you destroy the state, you create a vacuum. For the first time on Iraqi soil, one saw al-Qaeda groups come in, and that was in 2004, when Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, who was a Jordanian militant, comes into Tal Afar and creates al-Qaeda in Mesopotamia. You know, even bin Laden found him to be a bit unpalatable, because he was deeply sectarian and extraordinarily violent. The Americans tried to crush al-Qaeda in Mesopotamia, but by 2006, despite the big surge, despite the bombing of Fallujah, Ramadi—you know, names that the American public now are quite familiar with—despite the razing of these cities, the Islamic State was born in 2006. It’s not yesterday’s creation. This was a product of the Iraq War. [Democracy Now!, August 25]

The second interview is with Patrick Cockburn, the Middle East correspondent for The Independent. Addressing the nonsense in Hillary Clinton's statements in her Atlantic interview, he writes: The idea, which is very widespread, that there was a moment that, with a few more guns and ammunition, that a moderate Syrian opposition could have taken over in Syria in 2011 or '12 or ’13, is just unreal. There are 14 provincial capitals of Syria. Assad held all of them until last year, when he lost one of them, Raqqa, to ISIS, not to any of these moderates. These moderates are an endangered species on the battlefields of Syria. The opposition is now dominated—military opposition is dominated by ISIS. They hold a third of the country. But the other military opposition are people like Jabhat al-Nusra, which is the official representative of al-Qaeda, of bin Laden's al-Qaeda, and some other jihadi organizations. So this is sort of fantasy that there was a moderate Syrian military opposition which, with a bit more support from Obama, could have taken power in Damascus. It was never going to happen. [Democracy Now!, August 13]

Gaza
The seven-week war against Gaza has stopped with the announcement Tuesday of an indefinite ceasefire.  As reported in The Guardian on August 26: The war in Gaza ended on Tuesday after Israel and the Palestinians agreed to halt fighting indefinitely, putting an end to seven weeks of catastrophic loss of life and destruction, but on terms which are likely to leave many on both sides of the conflict wondering what was achieved.  Hamas and Islamic Jihad – the main militant groups in Gaza – the Palestinian Authority and Israel agreed on an open-ended ceasefire beginning at 7pm on Tuesday evening....The terms of the deal – brokered by the Egyptian government, and reached on the 50th day of the conflict – appeared to be almost identical to those agreed at the end of the previous war 21 months ago. Israel will open crossings on its border to allow humanitarian aid and construction materials to enter Gaza, and will extend the permitted fishing zone to six miles off the coast of Gaza. The Rafah border crossing between Gaza and Egypt is also to be opened.

The Palestinian death toll is currently over 2,100 - 2,104 according to UN sources; 2,133 according to an article in The Guardian.  Wounded Palestinians number 10,890.  At least 70 percent of the Palestinian deaths were civilians.  The Israeli death toll is 70, including 6 civilians.  

The humanitarian crisis in Gaza is coming to be more defined but the final tally will require weeks.  After being blockaded for seven years, 80% of Gazans were already receiving humanitarian aid prior to the war.  Here are some of the latest assessments of the post-war situation in Gaza:

As the ceasefire allows for more in-depth sectoral assessments to be conducted, it is clear that the scale of damage is unprecedented, with approximately 13 per cent of the housing stock affected. Five per cent of the housing stock is uninhabitable - an estimated 18,000 housing units have been either destroyed or severely damaged, leaving more than 108,000 people homeless. This is in addition to the pre-crisis housing deficit of 71,000 housing units, due to people living in overcrowded or inadequate conditions. The provision of temporary housing solutions to these people is one of the major challenges facing the local authorities and the humanitarian community in the coming period. [1]

Despite extensive repairs, electricity outages of 18 hours a day continue in most areas across Gaza. [1]

Only 10 per cent of the population have potable running water available daily. [1]

More than 1,000 children will suffer lifelong disabilities [2]

Water and sanitation: ...180,000 people have limited access to water. The lack of electricity and fuel also restrict water supply. The UN and other agencies are concerned about the risk of diseases related to lack of access to water. In fact, thousands of people live in overcrowded schools, shelters. This, coupled with the lack of water and poor sanitation, poses serious epidemic risks. [2]

Medical services and supplies:  serious shortages of drugs and medical supplies hamper health benefits, particularly those related to emergencies, surgical procedures and intensive care units. The 29 hospitals working, manage with backup generators require fuel. 15 hospitals and 16 health centres damaged require reconstruction. The lack of specialized surgeons limits medical support to the injured. [2]

Psychological damage: At least 373,000 children need psychosocial support. Thousands of ERW (explosive remnants of war) are in built-up areas, posing a significant risk to children, farmers, aid workers and internally displaced people returning home. [2]

[1] OCHA Situation Report, August 28 
[2] Independent Catholic News, August 27

Related
Humanitarian agencies warn of imminent water crisis in Gaza [MondoWeiss, July 23]
Israel War Aftermath: Epidemic feared in Gaza sheltering centers as skin infections spread [Informed Comment, August 28]

Top 5 Myths About the War Against Gaza
Hopefully, the ceasefire will last and the blockade of Gaza will eventually be lifted.  In the meantime, as some "news" agencies try to shift the responsibility for the destruction of Gaza and try to downplay or excuse the extent of civilian casualties, here are some facts to keep in front of you.  

True or False:

(1) Hamas' increased rocket attacks against Israel initiated the 2014 war.
False: The hostilities began with the targeted assassination of at least six members of Hamas and the arrest of 400 Palestinians.  To justify their attacks against Hamas and the arrests, Israel implicated Hamas in what was the action of a lone operator - the kidnapping and murder of three Israeli teenagers.  Even the Israeli government, having captured the perpetrator and destroyed his home, now admits this.

(2) The Israeli blockade violates international law.
True: Numerous human rights groups, including UN agencies, have spoken out against this collective punishment.  The European Union and the British Parliament have gone on record as asking for an end to the blockade.  Even some in the US media are beginning to agree: What Israel is doing in Gaza now is collective punishment. It is punishment for Gaza’s refusal to be a docile ghetto. It is punishment for the gall of Palestinians in unifying, and of Hamas and other factions in responding to Israel’s siege and its provocations with resistance, armed or otherwise, after Israel repeatedly reacted to unarmed protest with crushing force. Despite years of ceasefires and truces, the siege of Gaza has never been lifted. [The New Yorker, July 29]

(3) The Israeli blockade has devastated the economy in Gaza.

True: A 2012 UN report, when the blockade was just entering its 6th year, notes:

34% of Gaza’s workforce, including over half its youth, is unemployed.

44% of Gazans are food insecure and about 80% are aid recipients. 

In 2011, the GDP per capita was almost 17% below the equivalent figure in 2005, before the last Palestinian elections.

In 2011 less than one truckload of goods per day exited Gaza, less than 3% the average amount of exports during the first half of 2007.

35% of Gaza’s farmland and 85% of its fishing waters are totally or partially inaccessible due to Israeli imposed restrictions.

(4) Hamas overthrew the Palestinian Authority in Gaza in 2007.

False: Hamas came to power in the Occupied Territory of Gaza and the West Bank in the legislative elections of January, 2006. They won 76 of 132 legislative seats and a unity government was formed.  Subsequent maneuverings by Israel and the United States returned Fatah / the Palestinian Authority to power in the West Bank.  The Battle of Gaza (June 10-15, 2007) was a conflict in the struggle for power in Gaza between Fatah and Hamas.  Fatah could not dislodge Hamas.  Hamas fighters took control of the Gaza Strip and removed Fatah officials. The battle resulted in the dissolution of the unity government and the division of the Palestinian territories into two entities, the West Bank governed by the Palestinian National Authority, and Gaza governed by Hamas. The Israeli blockade began.

(5) The United States opposed the UN's Goldstone Report, which investigated war crimes committed during the Gaza War of 2009 ("Operation Cast Lead").

True:  The 574-page fact-finding report was opposed by the US Ambassador to the UN and the US Congress.  One can only wonder if the present war against Gaza would have occurred had those responsible for the war crimes documented in the Goldstone Report been held accountable at the time.  "Operation Cast Lead" resulted in the deaths of 1417 Palestinians and 13 Israelis.  Of the Palestinian deaths, 926 were non-combatants and 255 were police officers killed at police stations and not participating in hostilities.  Of the Israeli deaths, 3 were non-combatants.  

The new "politics as usual"

As the Republican lawsuit against President Obama proceeds, I'm reminded of the last time the GOP couldn't prevent a two-term Democratic presidency and resorted to political maneuvering to attempt to thwart the will of the people.  Of course, I'm speaking of the totally baseless impeachment attempt against President Clinton.  His sexual peccadilloes somehow reached the height of "high crimes and misdemeanors" in the eyes of the partisan crowd that couldn't defeat him at the polls.  Republicans today know they would never win an impeachment vote in the Senate so they are taking the President to court for using his executive powers in ways that go against their right-wing ideology.  They know that an impeachment effort would risk increasing Obama's approval ratings just as happened with Clinton after their ham-handed impeachment proceedings back in the '90's..

With their voter repression laws in place and their coffers filled with "Citizens United" money, Republicans have very powerful new tools for retaining the House and quite possibly winning the Senate this year.  Even without taking over that legislative body, they can continue their obstructionist tactics to slow the appointment of federal judges.  Republican control of the Senate would, however, guarantee an end to any possibility that even moderate justices will be appointed to the 59 vacancies in the federal courts.  In recent years, these courts have become the venue for the reversals of progressive legislation - including local gun laws.  In a recent example, on July 26, a federal judge struck down D.C.'s ban on open or concealed "carry" as unconstitutional.

Jack Lienke, in a post on Mother Jones, points out what could be a new trend in right-wing lawsuits:  "If you can't beat 'em, point out their typos." As Lienke writes: "The D.C. Circuit Court's recent decision in Halbig v. Sebelius...could render millions of Americans ineligible for health insurance subsidies on the basis of some sloppy syntax in the Affordable Care Act.  After surviving more than 50 repeal votes in the House, a Supreme Court challenge to its constitutionality, and a famously rocky online rollout, health-care reform may end up hobbled by a mere drafting error."  The debate comes from whether Congress intended subsidies only for state run health care exchanges or for the federal health care exchange as well.  The D.C. court says that only state-run health care exchanges can provide subsidies.  The Fourth Circuit Court in Virginia came to the opposite conclusion and no one is about to lose his or her health care subsidy yet.  But unless the full D.C. Circuit Court reverses its three-judge-panel ruling, the ACA will be once again before the Supreme Court.   Frankly, I'm not willing to bet too much on John Roberts voting twice in a row to uphold the Affordable Care Act. The original ruling upholding the ACA already seriously weakened it by making the medicaid expansion portion of the law voluntary and leaving it up to the states. So a vote by SCUSA to further limit the ACA is not too far-fetched.

Now the President's "signature environmental achievement," the EPA rules on emissions from coal-burning power plants, is under attack:  "A new suit asks the D.C. Circuit to nix the president's biggest climate-change initiative—EPA's 'Clean Power Plan'—due to a 25-year-old mistake in the text of the Clean Air Act."  Basically, a Senate amendment to the Clean Air Act gives the EPA the right to control carbon dioxide emissions; a House amendment does not.  Lienke places his hopes for a positive decision on the 1984 Chevron doctrine: "if a statute does not 'speak clearly' with respect to a particular issue, courts will defer to any reasonable interpretation offered by the executive agency charged with implementing the law."  I hope he's right.

Partisanship has been at an all-time high since Obama's election - amusing in light of his policies which can best be described as those of an "Eisenhower Republican".  The Affordable Care Act was based on a conservative think tank's model for health care and previously implemented by a Republican governor.  It became law without gaining a single Republican vote.   The Republicans' unprecedented use of the filibuster has stymied legislation and, just as importantly, judicial and executive branch appointments.  The use of the filibuster to prevent these appointments is an attack on the legitimacy of the Presidency.  How can he do the job that he was elected to do if filibustering prevents him from making the appointments he wants?  In fact, it was Republicans' declared intention to filibuster all of Obama's nominees to the DC circuit court ---yes, that DC circuit court, whose three judge panel ruled against the Affordable Care Act  in Halbig vs. Sibelius--- simply because they didn't want a Democratic president to be able to fill any more vacancies that finally led the Democratic leadership to adopt the modest filibuster reform of November 2013.

So there you have it - the domestic politics of 21st century America: hyper-partisanship, unlimited money to influence elections, voter repression laws, attacks on the legitimacy of the presidency, corporations granted personhood, and unending lawsuits relying on conservative activist judges in the federal courts to overturn enacted legislation.  The Greeks invented democracy in the 6th century B.C.  Those ancients must be turning over in their graves looking at the form "rule by the people" takes 2,600 years later in the country that fancies itself the world's foremost democracy.

Related
"The District of Columbia asked a federal judge Monday [August 25] to reconsider his July ruling that overturned D.C.’s ban on possessing handguns in public. U.S. District Judge Frederick Scullin Jr. “failed to conduct the analysis required by controlling law, and relied on flawed, non-controlling decisions from other jurisdictions” when he declared D.C.’s public handgun ban unconstitutional, according to the city’s lawyers."[Washington Free Beacon, Aug 26]

Sunday Roundup - August 24, 2014

"I wonder how foreign policies would look if we ...thought of all children everywhere as our own. Then we could never...wage war anywhere, because wars, especially in our time, are always wars against children, indeed our children."

- Howard Zinn, A People's History of the United States

This is the weekly selection of news from sources outside the mainstream US corporate media.  Today we look at Syria, the Iran nuclear talks, Iraq, Gaza, Ukraine, and, in brief, the right-wing criticism of Obama's foreign policy.

Syria
More than 191,000 people have been killed in the Syrian conflict up to April, the UN human rights chief says.  Navi Pillay said the figure was "probably an underestimate" and criticised what she called "international paralysis" on the issue.  [BBC, Aug 22] Approximately one-third of the casualties are civilians.  Nine million Syrians have been displaced by the fighting.

On August 19, OPCW director Ahmet Üzümcü announced the completion of the destruction of Syria's chemical weapons.  The U.S. Maritime Vessel Cape Ray has completed destruction of its entire consignment of 600 metric tonnes of Category 1 chemicals from the Syrian Arab Republic. This ends a crucial stage in the complex international maritime operation to remove and destroy Syria’s chemical weapons stockpile...The Cape Ray’s consignment included the most dangerous chemicals in Syria’s arsenal: 581 metric tonnes of DF, a binary precursor for sarin gas, and 19.8 metric tonnes of ready-to-use sulfur mustard (HD).  The operation was completed weeks ahead of schedule and Üzümcü thanked and congratulated the United States, the crew aboard the Cape Ray, and our OPCW inspectors and demilitarisation experts for this remarkable achievement.

Iran Nuclear Talks
The IAEA's monthly update notes that Iran is moving to meet the terms of the extended nuclear talks.  The talks were extended last month to resolve differences in the permissible future scope of Iran's uranium enrichment.   Iran has started taking action to comply with the terms of an extended agreement with six world powers over its disputed atomic activities, a U.N. nuclear watchdog report obtained by Reuters on Wednesday showed. The findings in a monthly update by the International Atomic Energy Agency - though no major surprise - may be seen as positive by the West ahead of the expected resumption next month of negotiations on ending the decade-old nuclear dispute.  The IAEA document made clear that Iran is continuing to meet its commitments under the interim accord that it reached with the United States, France, Germany, Britain, China and Russia late last year and that took effect in January. [Reuters, August 20]

Iraq
The truth is violence never ceased in Iraq. The cracks never filled. The wounds never healed. Our continued support has been catastrophic, costing thousands of innocent lives and delivering the final blow to a divided society. ‘We need a comprehensive plan for the Middle East that correctly learns the lessons of the past decade,’ [wrote former Prime Minister Blair in a June 14 essay]. Sadly, he still appears to need to include himself in that ‘we’.  [Iraq Body Count website: "The Casualties of Support" by Lily Hamourtziadou, June 16]

In response to international criticism, Iraq's president Nuri al-Maliki agreed to resign on August 14. Maliki's critics, from Washington to Riyadh, say he has systematically alienated Sunnis from the political process, thus fuelling support for the Sunni militants of the Islamic State of Iraq and Greater Syria (ISIS or ISIL) who have now seized towns and cities across northern Iraq and have threatened to march on Baghdad. The Islamist group, which now calls itself the Islamic State, poses the biggest threat to Iraqi stability since the fall of Saddam Hussein in 2003.  Sectarian and inter-religious violence has again become widespread, reaching levels not seen since unrest peaked in 2006-2007 in the era following the US-led invasion. [France24 website, Aug 15]

In a grim reminder of the civilian toll caused by 21st century wars, The Guardian website has re-posted a link to a 2010 video revealing the extent of violent civilian deaths following the US-led invasion.  As of YE 2009, 65% of the 109,000 violent Iraqi deaths were civilians.  The leaked documents led the UK-based organization Iraq Body Count to increase the civilian death toll by 15,000.  Iraq Body Count has continued to update its tally as sectarian fighting engulfs the country.  The figures as of August 22 are:

Documented civilian deaths from violence:  127,685 – 142,924  

Total violent deaths including combatants: 195,000

Gaza

The Egyptian-brokered talks and the ceasefire aimed at stopping the violence in Gaza collapsed on Tuesday and hostilities resumed.  The primary sticking point is the end of the seven-year blockade against Gaza, which would include the reopening of the air and seaports.  The blockade imposed by Israel and Egypt after Hamas came to power in 2006 has done much to destroy the Gaza economy and prevent the repair of buildings destroyed in the Israeli sieges of the enclave since then.  The violence since the end of the cease-fire has so far claimed 65 Palestinian and one Israeli life, bringing the total death toll for Palestinians in this latest siege to 2,090 - 70 to 80% are civilians - and for Israelis to 68,  four are civilians.

An offer from the EU was apparently on the table and receiving positive consideration by Hamas.  The European Union...offered to take charge of Gaza's border crossings and work to prevent illegal arms flows, insisting on a durable truce with Israel and saying a return to the status quo for the region "is not an option." ...Hamas negotiators met in Qatar with the group's leadership to discuss a proposal for a long-term truce with Israel. An official said the group was inclined to accept the Egyptian-mediated offer.  The Gaza blockade remains the main stumbling block to negotiating a truce. The blockade has greatly limited Palestinians’ movements in and out of the territory of 1.8 million people, restricted the flow of goods into Gaza and blocked virtually all exports...[The EU foreign ministers said,] "The situation in the Gaza Strip has been unsustainable for many years and a return to the status quo prior to the latest conflict is not an option." [Al Jazeera, August 15] 

Palestinians walk through rubble during a ceasefire
in the Shujai'iya residential neighbourhood of Gaza City.
Photograph: Mahmud Hams/AFP/Getty Images
(The Guardian, July 26)

It will be a long time before we know the actual reason the truce negotiations failed.  Mouin Rabini, in an opinion piece for Al Jazeera, writes:  Available reports coming out of the Cairo talks indicate that the Palestinian delegation showed flexibility on the implementation of any agreement, provided it entailed the removal rather than simply relaxation of the siege of the Gaza Strip. But any such truce, even if it conformed with the international consensus on ending the blockade of Gaza, would pose a major domestic political risk to the Israeli leader. Palestinian analyst Khalil Shaheen of the Palestinian think tank Masarat said, “It would be very difficult for Netanyahu to sign an agreement whose main element is the end of the siege and makes no mention of Palestinian disarmament and continue to declare victory.”  Meanwhile the blockade, death and destruction in Gaza continue as Israel attempts to destroy Hamas and end the Palestinian unity government. The international community makes the right noises but, in the end, stands by impotently.

Links
 [Haaretz, August 22] The Israeli newspaper Haaretz pointedly asks "How many Palestinian civilians is a single militant worth?" As of Thursday, 76.8 percent of the 2,090 fatalities documented by the Gazan human rights organization Mizan have been civilians.

[Al Jazeera, July 31] "Gaza’s kids affected psychologically, physically by lifetime of violence" - Beyond the immediate loss in Gaza... Israel’s onslaught will have long-term mental and physical effects on the Palestinian children who survived weeks of airstrikes and naval and tank shelling. 

[The Nation, July 16 post; Aug 4-11 print edition] "The War on Gaza and the Cycle of Impunity" - If Israel is not brought to justice, it will commit the same crimes again and again.

Ukraine
A controversial Russian aid convoy to eastern Ukraine has been completed. After being delayed at the Ukrainian border for a week, the convoy proceeded without permission from the government in Kiev.  Russia’s Foreign Ministry has confirmed humanitarian aid has been delivered to the besieged city of Lugansk in eastern Ukraine. Meanwhile all trucks that delivered aid had returned to Russia....All trucks have returned empty, Ukrainian and Russian border guards confirmed, Russian Deputy Emergency Minister Eduard Chizhikov said....The Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) also confirmed that all 227 vehicles that entered Ukraine as part of a Russian aid convoy have now returned home....The convoy approached the Russian-Ukrainian border on August 14, and only entered Ukraine a week later, as Kiev had been postponing its final approval for the trucks to go ahead. [Russia Times, Aug 23]  Getting to the aid is being complicated by the continuing hostilities in the area.  Rebel leaders in Luhansk said the aid had been delivered and that distribution would begin, but pro-Russia media said that shelling was preventing people from getting to the aid...Meanwhile, [German Chancellor Angela] Merkel arrived in Kiev on Saturday for talks with Ukraine's president Petro Poroshenko... She later said that the standoff over Ukraine could be solved but only if control was tightened over the Ukraine-Russia border. "There must be two sides to be successful. You cannot achieve peace on your own. I hope the talks with Russia will lead to success," Merkel said, looking ahead to the meeting on Tuesday involving Putin and Poroshenko. [The Guardian, August 23]

In Brief - The Attacks on Obama's Foreign Policy

[Daily Kos, August 12, "Obama slams reporter's right-wing adopted talking point as bogus" ] It is a continuum of doing stupid stuff and being presumptuous internationally that has cost us thousands of lives, cost hundreds of thousands of lives overseas, and depleted our treasury. Those who criticize President Obama for being overcautious should check history for America’s continuous blunders internationally that have kept us at war for decades with little marginal increase in security (Iraq twice, Iran, Panama, Grenada, Vietnam, Dominican Republic, etc.) 

Earth to Hillary: We don't need an ignorant hawk in the White House

Earth to Hillary: We don't need an ignorant hawk in the White House.

The 2016 elections are more than two years away, so anything might happen between now and then. As of today, though, Democrats are giving overwhelming support for a Hillary Clinton run and she is ahead of presumptive Republican candidates by 6 or 7 points.  As a one-term Secretary of State, she accomplished nothing of note.  Today, her rhetoric on foreign policy as she gears up for the 2016 campaign is becoming hawkish to the point of stupidity.  She is distancing herself from Obama's more moderate policies, getting in line with AIPAC's support of Likud policies, and, just may be, endangering the last chance for a two-state solution and a just settlement of the Israeli-Palestinian crisis.

Andy Kroll in an August 15 Mother Jones post writes:  "In a recent interview with The Atlantic, Hillary Clinton went to great lengths to separate herself from her former boss, President Obama, in the realm of foreign policy. She unabashedly defended Israel's actions in the ongoing war in Gaza, chalked up civilian casualties in that conflict to 'the fog of war,' drew a hard line on Iran, and argued that the 'failure' of the Obama administration to arm Syrian rebel forces led to the rise of the Islamic State."  Her comments are decidedly not those of a future President - at least not anyone that I'd like to support.  We've already had the Bush-era neocons lead us into unjustifiable wars and drain the Treasury of at least $4 trillion.

How any fair-minded person can defend Israel's actions against Gaza - killing at least 1400 civilians including more than 400 children, destroying more than 10,000 homes and the enclave's only power plant, shelling six UN shelters for persons displaced by the assault, to name a few - is beyond imagination.  These actions are war crimes - not something to be sloughed off as consequences of "the fog of war."  She's signaling AIPAC that they should not abandon the Democrats because of Obama's policies and comments - tepid as they are in light of the magnitude of the humanitarian crisis brought about by the Israeli assault.  Hell, the Israelis don't really believe anyone will prosecute the war crimes committed in Gaza - they never have been held accountable in the past.  By the time the war crimes inquiry has recommendations to make, Hillary, with her bizarre take on the destruction in Gaza, will be on the horizon as potentially the next President.

And you can bet that Netanyahu and the right-wing thugs that are in power in Israel today are also taking note.  Clinton's statements are basically saying to Bibi and his crowd, "Don't worry. I won't be as tough on you as Obama."  (Not that Obama was in any sense tough but at least when Kerry became Secretary of State the US made an attempt to bring about a just peace in the region.)  The Israelis stonewalled the Kerry negotiations for nine months and then sabotaged them by escalating settlement construction.  Seeing the handwriting on the wall, the Palestinian Authority formed a unity government with Hamas.  Netanyahu and his crowd then had the gall to blame that unity government for the breakdown of the peace talks.  If they can drag their feet and be counterproductive for nine months while the world's eyes were focused on them, how easy it will be for them to delay any serious talks to produce a two-state solution for the next two years. Rebuilding Gaza and ending the seven-year blockade that has devastated that region will (or should) take up much of the world community's attention.  Compared to what the IDF did to Gaza, the general oppression of the Palestinians seems "benign" - as some of the more ludicrous Israeli commentators and politicians describe the 47 year Occupation.

As for Clinton's comments blaming the rise of ISIS on Obama's failure to arm the Syrian rebels, one can only wonder if she has any comprehension at all at what is happening there.  The Syrian civil war is a sectarian one.  Assad and the Syrian government are primarily Shia.  The rebel forces and ISIS are primarily Sunni.  I'm trying to understand the logic of how arming the Sunni rebel forces would stop the rise of Sunni ISIS forces.  That's right - there is no logic to the argument.

The Mother Jones article has an amusing "Who Said It, Clinton or McCain?" quiz.  If I wanted John McCain to be President, I'd have voted for him in 2008.  There's no groundswell of American support for a more belligerent foreign policy.  Other than currying AIPAC support, I'm not sure why Clinton is making these comments.

It's difficult to support someone with these views and the Democratic Party needs a serious wake up call.  It has been drifting rightward since the 1980's and its policies are centrist at best.  Just saying "we're not as bad as the Republicans" is not good enough.  Let's hope that Hillary gets a bit wiser on foreign policy in the next 2 years.  Let's hope she gets to be more of a twenty-first century leader and less of a twentieth-century hawk.

Sunday Roundup - August 17, 2014

This is the weekly selection of news and opinion from sources outside the US corporate mainstream media.  Today we look at Republican economic myths, Ukraine, Gaza, South Sudan, and Robin Williams.

US Economy
298,000 jobs were added in June and another 209,000 in July as the US economy continues its long, slow recovery from the Great Recession.  A few months after Obama's election, I was in an auto collision repair shop and spied a cartoon with Obama dressed like Steve Urkel complete with the goofy eyeglass frames. Obama/Urkel was looking at a downward sloping line and quipping "Did I do that?"  Conservatives and the more ill-informed loved to blame the recession on Obama, regardless of the facts.  Combined with similar misinformation on the Affordable Care Act,  it was enough to give them the House in the 2010 midterms.  Dave Johnson, blogging at Daily Kos has updated "Three Charts to Email to Your Right-Wing Brother-in-Law" based on the latest government data on the economy.  The facts and conclusions easily drawn from the three charts:

• Government spending increased dramatically under President Bush (88%).  It has not increased much under President Obama (3.78%).
• People who claim that Obama "tripled the deficit" or increased it or anything of the sort are either misled or are trying to mislead. President Obama inherited a budget deficit of $1.4 trillion from President Bush's last budget year and annual budget deficits have gone down dramatically since
• The stimulus reversed what was going on before the stimulus. We have gone from losing around 850,000 jobs a month to gaining over 200,000 jobs a month.  Conclusion: THE STIMULUS WORKED BUT WAS NOT ENOUGH

There is plenty more good information in the article that puts the lie to other Republican myths about the economy and Obama's handling of it.  Johnson concludes: These things really matter.  We all want to fix the terrible problems the country has.  But it is so important to know just what the problems are before you decide how to fix them.  Otherwise the things you do to try to solve those problems might just make them worse – just as laying off government workers in a recession makes unemployment worse.

Ukraine

The death toll from conflict in eastern Ukraine has doubled in the past fortnight, the UN's human rights office said on Wednesday, as international wrangling continued over a controversial Russian aid convoy to the region.The UN office said its "very conservative estimates" suggested the death toll has risen to 2,086 by the beginning of this week, up from 1129 on 26 July. ...The huge convoy set off from the Moscow region on Tuesday. The Kremlin says its 260 military trucks – hastily repainted white by Russian soldiers – contain humanitarian supplies for residents in the east trapped by fighting. [The Guardian, August 13]

Gaza
Negotiations
A temporary cease-fire has been extended until Monday August 18.  Negotiators are struggling to come up with a more permanent solution before the new five-day ceasefire expires.  Khalil al-Haya, the Palestinian group’s negotiator at the talks in Egypt seeking to stop fighting in Gaza, said on Thursday they were negotiating with a difficult side "versed in procrastination".  "We are keen on having an agreement concluded. It must satisfy the demands of our people," said al-Haya during public address in which he briefed the people of Gaza on the progress of the talks.  Haya said Hamas would continue to demand the end of what he called "unjust incursions" and a permanent lifting of the siege imposed by Israel on Gaza in 2006. [Al Jazeera, Aug 14]

Humanitarian Crisis
According to a UN report of August 8:
- Rescue teams have retrieved additional bodies, bringing the cumulative death toll of Palestinians to 1,922, of whom 1,407 are believed to be civilians, including 448 children; the status of 297 fatalities remains to be determined.  The Israeli death toll remained at 67, including 3 civilians.

- UNRWA was sheltering 166,527 people in 90 schools
- An estimated 10,800 homes have been destroyed or damaged beyond repair over the course of hostilities, leaving some 65,000 people homeless, in addition to 33,100 others whose homes will require major repairs, and another 185,700 individuals whose homes sustained minor damage. 

The UN report also notes the devastating impact of the strike on the Gaza Power Plant on water and sanitation facilities throughout Gaza, the existence of thousands of explosive remnants of war in civilian areas, and the critical state of reproductive and maternal health in Occupied Gaza (10,000 of 46,000 pregnant women have been displaced).

War Crimes Inquiry

Photo appeared in Al Jazeera

The United Nations has named experts to an international commission of inquiry into possible human rights violations and war crimes committed by both sides during Israel's military offensive in the Gaza Strip...The UN statement said the independent team will investigate "all violations of international humanitarian law and international human rights law ... in the context of the military operations conducted since 13 June 2014...Navi Pillay, the top UN human rights official, said on July 31 she believed Israel was deliberately defying international law in its military offensive in Gaza and that world powers should hold it accountable for possible war crimes. Israel has attacked homes, schools, hospitals, Gaza's only power plant and UN premises in apparent violation of the Geneva Conventions, said Pillay, a former UN war crimes judge. Hamas fighters in Gaza have violated international humanitarian law by firing rockets indiscriminately into Israel, Pillay said.  [Al Jazeera, Aug 14]  Reaction to the announcement was as expected.  Hamas welcomed the decision. Israel dismissed the inquiry as a "kangaroo court."  This independent investigation must take place and those responsible for war crimes must be held accountable.  Otherwise, there will be no escape from the "cycle of impunity" and the continuing oppression of the people of Gaza.

Related
"Need for Tough Love: Defending the Gaza Assault Hurts Israeli, American Interests" (Gregory Harms, Informed Comment, August 13) - how a knowledge deficit and ideology lead to the media's and people's misperceptions on the conflict

"The Only Explanation for America's Morally Bankrupt Israel Policy" (Stephen M. Walt, The World Post /Huffington Post, July 22) - the role of money and lobbies in influencing political leaders


South Sudan
As many as four million South Sudanese are facing starvation following the civil war that broke out there last year.   America is sending $180m (£107m) in aid to help people in South Sudan, where four million people are at risk of starvation.  More than a third of South Sudan's population has been hit, says the United Nations, calling it "the worst food crisis in the world"...Violence erupted last December when the president accused his deputy leader of trying to take power. [BBC News, Aug 14] The UN Security Council is threatening sanctions.  UN Security Council envoys have warned South Sudan's warring leaders they would face sanctions if a civil war that has pushed the young nation to the brink of famine does not stop."The council has made it very clear: that it is prepared to impose consequences if there continue to be spoilers, if there continue to be people carrying out gross violations of human rights," US ambassador to the UN Samantha Power said after meeting with President Salva Kiir.  EU Special Representative to the Horn of Africa, Alex Rondos, also expressed concern "that both sides in South Sudan continue spending their money on arms and fighting for power while South Sudanese citizens are beginning to starve to death". [Al Jazeera, August 14]

Robin Williams
I found a moving news item on Robin Williams after publishing the August 12 post, which mentioned his passing at its conclusion.  It's just one more reminder of what we lost with his untimely death: "Robin Williams Once Secretly Fulfilled A Dying Girl's Wish"  (Eleanor Goldberg, Huffington Post, August 13)

A Vacation in Italy

Montepulciano

About the time Bill DeBlasio was being criticized for not being enough of a workaholic to be mayor of the Big Apple, I too was vacationing in Italy with my family. We did spend several days in Venice but, unlike the DeBlasio's, we spent most of our time in Tuscany. Home to Florence, Siena, medieval hilltop towns, superb cuisine, Roman and Etruscan ruins, vineyards and olive groves, Tuscany is one of the most beautiful places on the planet. Florence is the home of the Italian Renaissance - the great burst of knowledge and creativity that led through the Enlightenment to the modern age. Home to the Medici's, one of the world's richest and most powerful families, Tuscany's politics today are firmly to the left with regional elections predictably giving landslide victories to leftist or center-left candidates since 1970 when the first regional election was held.

Tuscan sunrise

Italy's museums and churches are filled with paintings and sculpture, most notably of the medieval and Renaissance periods. Renaissance (in Italian, rinascimento) means "rebirth". The rediscovery and re-appreciation of Greek and Roman texts and sculpture provided the momentum to begin to bring Europe out of the medieval era. That classic, more realistic, more observation-based way of representing the world combined with the fortunate presence of creative geniuses and patrons who supported their work produced the Renaissance.

Titan's Assumption
Licensed under public domain by Wikimedia Commons (1)

During the Renaissance, paintings went from two-dimensional to three-dimensional representations of the world. Linear perspective was developed. Color became more vibrant.  The painting medium changed over the years from fresco and tempera to oil, and artists began to paint on canvas rather than wood panels and plaster. Sculpture turned to Greek and Roman models of the idealized human body and statues of amazing fluidity were created by the hands of master sculptors. New architectural techniques were brought to bear on the building of great churches and cathedrals. Thousands of volumes have been written about the Renaissance and I don't pretend to any great knowledge of the era but here are a couple of works I enjoyed while in Italy.

The painting at the right is the Assumption of the Virgin Mary, painted by Titian (Tiziano) between 1516 and 1518.  It's in the Basilica di Santa Maria Gloriosi del Frari in Venice and an example of the revolutionary use of vibrant color for which Titian is noted.  The painting below, The Birth of Venus, is in the Uffizi Gallery in Florence.  Painted by Botticelli between 1482 and 1485, it is one of the most famous paintings in the world and, according to the Uffizi webpage, the first example of painting on canvas in Tuscany. The theme comes from Ovid's Metamporheses.  The painting has "clear references to the 'Stanzas', a...poetic work by Agnolo Poliziano, a contemporary of Botticelli and the greatest Neoplatonic poet of the Medici court. Neoplatonism was a current of thought that tried to connect the Greek and Roman cultural heritage with Christianity.  The Neoplatonic philosophical meaning is then clear: the work would mean the birth of love and... spiritual beauty as a driving force of life."

The Birth of Venus
From the Uffizi website (2)

Creativity and creative genius are much studied by psychologists and neuroscientists. The July/August issue of The Atlantic has several interesting articles on "how genius happens". There are no firm answers yet - and may never be. But one thing is clear to me. Some of the seemingly untractable problems of our generation require a more creative approach if we are ever to solve them. That plus a re-dedication to the common good, an empathic appreciation of our common humanity and a facts-based approach to problem-solving should be fostered everywhere they can be. These may be our best, perhaps only, hope to develop the political will to save the 21st century.

Robin Williams

From the BBC News post

The sudden death of actor Robin Williams yesterday shocked us all.  The beloved actor was a comic genius. For millions, including me, his over-the-top humor and improvisational skills made him the favorite stand-up comic of his generation.   Kind words (BBC News, Aug 12) have been pouring in non-stop since his untimely death.   Mourners visited sites from Williams' movies..., laying flowers and memorabilia to honor the late star. This kind and humorous man will be greatly missed by all of us.

Links to The Atlantic Articles on Creativity

"Secrets of the Creative Brain" by Nancy Andreasen

"The Power of Two" by Joshua Wolf Shenk

"Five Creative Solutions"

Photo Attributions (Renaissance Paintings)

1. "Tizian 041" by Titian - The Yorck Project: 10.000 Meisterwerke der Malerei. DVD-ROM, 2002. ISBN 3936122202. Distributed by DIRECTMEDIA Publishing GmbH.

2. Uffizi Gallery Museum Website - home page

Sunday Roundup - August 10, 2014

This is the weekly selection of news and opinion from sources outside the mainstream US corporate media.  Today we look at Iraq, the nuclear weapons era, and Gaza.


Iraq

Map is from The Guardian

The destabilization of the Middle East caused by the US invasion and occupation of Iraq continues the legacy of the neocons who misled our country into this unjustifiable war.  Iraq is on the verge of unraveling as ISIS (Islamic State of Iraq and Syria) forces advance throughout the northwestern section of the country and into Syria.   Isis forces advanced across north-western Iraq almost unchecked since a small band of hardliners stormed Iraq's second city, Mosul, on 10 June, sending the Iraqi army fleeing and shattering the central government's control. Flush with weapons looted from Iraqi arsenals, Isis sacked Tikrit and advanced on Kirkuk. With new recruits lured or pressganged along the way, it has captured five oilfields and three cities, an 800-mile stretch of border with Syria. It has menaced Baghdad and is now within striking distance of Iraq's two largest dams.  

The latest ISIS campaign is against Kurdish minority Yazidis.  UN groups say at least 40,000 members of the Yazidi sect, many of them women and children, have taken refuge in nine locations on Mount Sinjar, a craggy, mile-high ridge identified in local legend as the final resting place of Noah's ark.   At least 130,000 more people, many from the Yazidi stronghold of Sinjar, have fled to Dohuk, in the Kurdish north, or to Irbil, where regional authorities have been struggling since June to deal with one of the biggest and most rapid refugee movements in decades. [The Guardian, August 6]

On Friday, US began airstrikes against the militant forces.  U.S. warplanes bombed Islamist fighters marching on Iraq's Kurdish capital on Friday after President Barack Obama said Washington must act to prevent "genocide".  Islamic State fighters...have advanced to within a half hour's drive of Arbil, capital of Iraq's Kurdish region and a hub for U.S. oil companies. [Reuters, August 8]

Related
Stephen Walt, "Do No (More) Harm" (Foreign Policy, August 7) - the case against bombing the Islamic State..."Every time the U.S. touches the Middle East, it makes things worse. It's time to walk away and not look back...This argument would not preclude limited U.S. action for purely humanitarian purposes -- such as humanitarian airdrops for the beleaguered religious minorities now threatened with starvation in Iraq."


The Nuclear Weapons Era
On August 6, 1945, the first atomic bomb was dropped on Hiroshima.  It was the beginning of the nuclear weapons era.  In his  introduction to a Noam Chomsky article, Tom Englehardt at TomDispatch writes that the way for the bombing of Hiroshima had been paved by an evolution in warfare: the increasing targeting of civilian populations from the air (something that can be seen again today in the carnage of Gaza)....Targeted by the planet’s major nuclear arsenals would be the civilian inhabitants not just of single cities but of scores and scores of cities, even of the planet itself.  On August 6th, 70 years ago, the possibility of the apocalypse passed out of the hands of God or the gods and into human hands, which meant a new kind of history had begun whose endpoint is unknowable.  Noam Chomsky's article reviews the insane strategies of the nuclear weapons era (NWE) and the squandered opportunities to reduce the threat.  He quotes General Lee Butler, former head of the U.S. Strategic Command (STRATCOM), which controls nuclear weapons and strategy.  Twenty years ago, he wrote that we had so far survived the NWE “by some combination of skill, luck, and divine intervention, and I suspect the latter in greatest proportion.”  Chomsky concludes As General Butler observed, it is a near miracle that we have escaped destruction so far, and the longer we tempt fate, the less likely it is that we can hope for divine intervention to perpetuate the miracle.  Nine countries currently possess at least 16,300 nuclear weapons - a significant drop from the 60-70,000 present at the peak but a long way from zero.

Table is from Stockholm International Peace Research Institute and appeared in Business Insider

Note: A Ploughshares Fund estimate puts the nuclear weapons total at 17,300.


Gaza
A three-day ceasefire ended Friday.  Al Jazeera  reports: Israel has hit the Gaza Strip with missiles and artillery for the first time in three days, while Palestinian fighters launched a barrage of rockets at Israel, just hours after a ceasefire between the two sides expired....The ceasefire expired as no progress was made in the Egyptian-mediated talks aimed at finding a durable solution to the month-long fighting.  The Egyptian-brokered talks had not resumed as of Saturday night.

Preliminary UN estimates of the destruction to date in six areas of the Gaza Strip based on satellite images show a total of 3246 structures damaged or destroyed (1525 destroyed, 700 severely damaged, 1021 moderately damaged), 4900 acres of farmland destroyed, and 1288 road or rural area craters.  A UN report on casualties (August 6) estimated that 1,843 Palestinians had been killed and 66 Israelis and one Thai national since Israel launched Operation Protective Edge on 8 July.  Of those Palestinians, the status of 279 could not be identified, at least 1,354 were civilians, including 415 children and 214 women.  Israel's 67 deaths include 3 civilians.

Meanwhile, pressure is mounting for an investigation into possible war crimes.  The UN could launch an independent investigation into the conduct of the war: The U.S. has cast the sole vote against establishing an investigation by the United Nations into war crimes committed in Gaza.  Yesterday [July 23], the United Nations Human Rights Council voted 29-1, with 17 abstentions, to establish an inquiry. The United States was the only no vote. The European nations on the council all abstained. [Mondo Weiss, July 24]  Also, The Guardian reported on August 5: Palestinian political leaders are poised to join the International Criminal Court (ICC) with the aim of putting Israel in the dock on war crimes charges, officials said today.  "Israel has left us with no other option," Riad Malki, the Palestinian foreign minister, told reporters after meeting ICC officials in The Hague to discuss the implications of signing the Rome Statute. It would make the Palestinian state a member of the court with the authority to call for an investigation into possible war crimes and crimes against humanity.

The destruction of property and the death toll in Occupied Gaza now exceed those of the Israeli siege of Dec 2008-Jan 2009.  Without accountability for the massive civilian casualties and damage inflicted by the IDF, what The Nation has called "the cycle of impunity" will continue.  Impunity is what happens when an aggressor fractures the norms of international law and basic human rights yet is never held to account, and so is free to commit the same crimes again and again. That is what we’re seeing now, and that is exactly what the Goldstone Report—the findings of the UN investigation of Operation Cast Lead in 2008–09—so presciently warned against. It said then that bringing to justice those who committed war crimes—Israel as well as Hamas—was perhaps the only effective way to prevent another round of violence. [The Nation, posted July 16]

Related
"What the Gaza War Means for the Middle East" (Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, July 27) - "Despite the horrifying human toll of the latest Israel offensive against Gaza, Palestinians are rallying in even greater numbers around Hamas. They have rejected any ceasefire proposal that does not end the crippling seven-year blockade of Gaza; a blockade that has been described as a form of collective punishment that keeps Palestinians trapped in the largest 'open-air prison camp' in the world."

Marjorie Cohn, "Israel Inflicts Illegal Collective Punishment on Gaza" (Huffington Post, July 14) - "Israel's overwhelming use of military force constitutes collective punishment, which is a war crime... Article 33 of the Fourth Geneva Convention, to which Israel is a party, specifically forbids collective punishment. It says, 'No protected person [civilian] may be punished for an offense he or she has not personally committed ... Reprisals against protected persons and their property are prohibited'  "

Article 33 of the Fourth Geneva Convention, 12 August 1949

Update Last Sunday's round-up noted that the kidnapping of an Israeli soldier was used as the Israeli justification for the increased violence on Friday August 1 that left around 100 Palestinians dead.  Consistent with the Hamas' statement at the time, the kidnapping did not actually occur and  Israel confirmed on Saturday August 2 that the soldier presumed captured had been killed in action. 

The Midterms - the Polls and What's at Stake

It's three months until the midterm elections. Besides the 435 House seats and 36 Senate seats to be decided on November 4, voters will go to the polls to elect 46 state legislatures, 36 state governors, and numerous local officials.  The last midterms in 2010 swept Republicans into control of the House of Representatives and state governments and broke the filibuster-proof Democratic majority in the Senate.   In 2010, Democrats lost 6 Senate seats and 63 House seats. The crushing defeats for Democrats were a primary motivator for writing this blog - my first post was "Anger and Lies in the Mid-terms."  The 2010 midterms were a game changer. They led directly to the governmental paralysis at the national level that continues to this day.  Just as importantly, increased Republican control of state governments resulted in gerrymandered districts and voter suppression laws geared to ensure Republican control of the House and to make more probable their takeover of the Senate.  Supreme Court decisions on campaign finance laws and the Voting Rights Act also aid the Republican cause.

The midterms have historically led to losses for the President's political party.  In the twenty-six midterm elections held since 1910, the President's party has lost, on average, 32 House seats and 4 Senate seats.  Money and turnout determine elections.  Money favors Republicans and turnout favors Democrats.

Thanks to the Roberts Supreme Court, the 2014 midterms will be the most expensive in history.  The Open Secrets.org website tallies the financial activity for House and Senate races in 2013-2014.  House races have generated $424 million for Republicans and $316 million for Democrats.  Senate races have generated $207 million for Republicans and $197 million for Democrats.

Anyone doubting the influence of money on policy decisions will find it hard to explain policies that are opposed by the vast majority  or that are morally bankrupt.  We need only to look at the contributions to political campaigns and the amount spent on lobbying by, respectively, the pro-gun lobby ($4.3 million in political contributions in the 2012  election cycle; $22.2 million in lobbying for 2013-2014)  and the pro-Israel lobby (Sheldon Adelson doled out $92.8 million to Republican super PACs in 2012;  other pro-Israel groups contributed $16.1 million to the federal campaigns of both parties in the 2012 election cycle.) Anyone hoping for a change in policies that contribute to the income and wealth gap in the United States need only reflect on the contributions to political campaigns by the finance/insurance/real estate sectors ($228 million in campaign contributions to candidates and parties so far in the 2013-2014 election cycle).

Congressional disapproval ratings and the voter suppression laws increase the probability of low voter turnout.  As of 2011, there were 42 million registered Democrats, 30 million registered GOPers, and 24 million independents.  According to census figures, there are over 200 million people in the voting eligible population. About half the US voting population have not registered with a party or as independents. Turnout in midterm elections is even worse than that - the 2010 elections saw just 41% of the voting eligible population show up at the polls.

Both the money figures and the expected low turnout promise continued Republican control of the House and a loss of Democratic seats in the Senate.  But where do the polls say we stand three months before the mid-term elections?  Here's a look at the latest poll results for some specific races. (Data are from the Real Clear Politics website)

Governors
Florida - Charlie Crist (D) 43.8% v. Rick Scott (R) 42.5%
Wisconsin - Scott Walker (R) 47.0% v. Mary Burke(D) 46.3%
Texas - Greg Abbott (R) 50.5% v. Wendy Davis (D) 36.8%
Ohio - Jim Kasich (R) 47.0% v. Ed FitzGerald (D) 38.8%
Pennsylvania - Tom Wolf (D) 52.0% v. Tom Corbett (R) 39.0%

Two toss-ups, two Republican likely's and one Democratic likely in some of the most important Republican held states - some small gains in state governments but not a lot to cheer about here.

Senators 
This is the key group.  There are 21 Democratic seats and 15 Republican seats to be decided.  Loss of the Senate majority would ensure an end to what's left of Obama's agenda and to any hope for progressive or even moderate appointments to the judiciary.  These are the key seats in play in red or swing states currently with a Democratic incumbent Senator and/or with a retiring Democratic Senator:

Louisiana - Cassidy (R) 46.8% v. Landrieu (D) 45.8%
Alaska - Begich (D) 44.0% v. Sullivan (R) 41.0%
Arkansas - Cotton 47.4% (R) v. Pryor (D) 43.8%
North Carolina - Hagan (D) 45.8% v. Tillis (R) 44.0%
Virginia - Warner (D) 51.0% v. Gillespie 33.7%
Montana - Daines (R) 51.7% v. Walsh (D) 38.0%
South Dakota - Rounds(R) 44% v. Weiland (D) 29.5%
Iowa - Ernst (R) 44.8% v. Braley (D) 44.0%
Michigan - Peters (D) 43.8% v.  Land (R) 39.2%

It's still early and many of the key races are toss-ups.  But, if the vote were held tomorrow and the current poll figures held, Democrats would lose 5 Senate seats, making for a 50-50 split.  Democrats would technically retain the majority only because of the Vice President's tie-breaking role in votes brought to the Senate floor.

Representatives
The composition of the current House of Representatives is 233 Republicans, 199 Democrats, and 3 vacancies.  The most recent RealClearPolitics polling analysis shows 230 seats going to Republicans, 188 going to Democrats and 17 tossups.  Splitting the tossups roughly in half makes for a Republican majority of 239 to 196 Democrats.  In the best of all possible worlds - all tossups going to Democrats - the Republican majority would still be 25 seats - 230 to 205.

Finishing James Brady's fight for gun background checks [Newark Star Ledger editorial, Aug 4]
James Brady, Ronald Reagan's press secretary, died Monday at the age of 73.  Brady was shot in the head during the attempted assassination of Reagan in 1981.  He was permanently disabled and lived with constant pain but remained, until his death, "a tireless fighter for gun safety laws -- particularly the most common sense reform of all, universal background checks."  The "Brady Law" passed in 1993 made background checks "a requirement for gun purchases from licensed dealers."  It  is credited with stopping the sale of "more than 2 million illegal firearms sales -- half of them attempted purchases by convicted felons."  But Brady knew the job wasn't finished.  The loopholes that allow 40 percent of gun purchases without background checks have never been closed.  "Universal background checks are now supported by 90 percent of Americans, 84 percent of gun owners and 74 percent of NRA members.  They don't march in line with industry lobbyists. We can only hope that eventually, the political class will yield to a public opinion that James Brady started to shift."