Syria
Peace talks to end the Syrian civil war are (hopefully) about to get underway in Geneva on January 22. The UN, US and Russia have been trying to bring both sides to the table for months. "The Syrian government announced on 27 November that it would participate in the talks, but added that its official delegation would not be going 'to hand over power to anyone'...The National Coalition [the coalition of rebel groups fighting the Assad government] is split over whether to attend, and is due to vote on the issue. The opposition alliance long resisted calls to commit, but after intense pressure from its Western and Arab backers it voted on 11 November to participate if a number of conditions were met." Whether anything will be accomplished is anybody's guess. The two sides appear to have "irreconcilable objectives: Syria has repeatedly said President Assad's departure is out of the question, while the National Coalition has made it clear that President Assad must have no role in the transitional governing body called for in the Geneva Communique." [BBC News, January 17]
In a January 17 article, James Robbins, Diplomatic Correspondent for BBC News, examines how peaceful protests in March 2011 erupted into this all out civil war that has been going on for nearly 3 years and has left more than 100,000 people dead and has made 2.5 million people flee their homes. The two side are intractably deadlocked with neither side strong enough to win nor weak enough to lose. What many on the rebels side thought would be over in months has now stretched into years. "Fighting between jihadists and more moderate opposition forces have added
another layer to the conflict....Former US ambassador Ryan Crocker is among those urging the West to
reconsider the unthinkable - a future Syria still controlled by President Assad. He believes the alternative is that an al-Qaeda affiliate could seize power
in Damascus. 'We rather blithely took the position that Assad must go,' he told [James Robbins]. 'But if he goes because the radical Sunni opposition pushes him out we face
the prospect of a country in the hands of al-Qaeda. As bad as Assad is, I think from a Western perspective that is far, far
worse.' "(Image is by Reuters)
Iran
World powers and Iran are "likely to start talks on a final settlement to the long dispute over its nuclear ambitions in February, shortly after a six-month deal curbing its atomic activity takes effect, a diplomatic source said on Monday...Iran and the six powers said ... the deal would go into effect on January 20, pending verification by the International Atomic Energy Agency that Tehran is meeting its end of the bargain. The preliminary accord appeared to arrest a drift towards regional war ..." [Reuters, January 13]
Meanwhile nuclear talks between Iran and International Atomic Energy Agency have been postponed to February 8. "The UN nuclear watchdog has said a planned meeting with Iran next week to discuss how to allay concerns over its nuclear programme had been postponed to 8 February, without giving a reason. The talks between Iran and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) are separate from – though still closely linked with – broader diplomacy between Tehran and six world powers over Iran's disputed nuclear activity....The IAEA already regularly inspects Iranian nuclear sites to make sure there is no diversion of sensitive material for military purposes. It will increase the frequency of such visits and see some additional facilities, including plants where Iran manufactures equipment for refining uranium. Enriched uranium can have both civilian and military purposes." [The Guardian, January 14]
Israel-Palestine
Reuters reported on Thursday of the hardening settlement demands of Benjamin Netanyahu and on his trip to Jordan. "Israel's prime minister has increased the amount of occupied territory he wants to keep after any peace deal with the Palestinians, Israeli radio reported on Thursday, a move that could complicate U.S.-backed efforts to reach an accord. Benjamin Netanyahu's spokesman declined to comment on the report that he had added a bloc of Israeli-settled land near the Palestinian governmental seat in the occupied West Bank to a list of enclaves Israel intends to retain.That would leave 13 percent of the West Bank in Israeli hands, Israel's Army Radio said, a prospect likely to dismay Palestinians who want the area for a future state." An unidentified Palestinian official, while rejecting the notion of Israel keeping large clusters of settlements is quoted as saying "once we agree on the withdrawal to 1967 borders, we can accept minor exchanges of land on a case-by-case basis." Jordan has had a peace treaty with Israel since 1994. Netanyahu visited King Abdullah in Amman and an Israeli statement said "Netanyahu 'emphasized that Israel places a premium on security arrangements, including Jordan's interest in any future agreement' with the Palestinians."
Haaretz expanded on Netanyahu's discussions in Jordan. This was at least the fourth such trip since the negotiations restarted last year. "The Americans and Palestinians have updated the Jordanians on the negotiations at every step of the way, prompting some disagreement when it comes to Jordan's stake in the core issues....Among the issues pertaining to Jordan are the western border of the Jordan Valley, the status of Jerusalem, Palestinian refugees and water supplies." Haaretz has learned "that the Americans have suggested the force placed in the Jordan Valley contain Palestinian and Israeli soldiers or police along with American or international boots on the ground."
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