Yup...it's still warming

========================================================================
Quote of the Day

“We do not inherit the earth from our ancestors; we borrow it from our children”
― Chief Seattle



========================================================================

Semi-relevant intro: The extremists who control the Republican Party have forced a government shutdown over the Affordable Care Act, which, incidentally, is the law of the land upheld by the Supreme Court of the United States.  How long the Tea Party shutdown will continue and how much damage it will do is anybody's guess.  By now, we are all tired of the relentless distortions and fear-mongering around the Affordable Care Act, aka "Obamacare".  (The Huffington Post has a slide show list of the thirteen worst lies and distortions about "Obamacare" if you are interested in refuting the know-nothings and liars.)  Moving on then, maybe we should turn our attention to another area of right-wing and special interest misinformation - climate change.  Last week's release of the fifth Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report provides stronger evidence than ever that human activity is seriously impacting global warming.

The right-wing has not been nearly as successful in shaking people's understanding of human-induced climate change.  An April 2013 Gallup poll indicated 62% preferred the statement "most scientists believe that global warming is occurring," while just 28% preferred "most scientists believe that global warming is not occurring."  Nevertheless, in spite of all the data, the climate change deniers and their allies in the media and Congress are keeping up the attack.  Perhaps the most egregious recent example is one noted by the Director of Penn State's Earth System Science Center, Michael Mann.  In a Huffington Post September 27 post, Mann notes that, prior to the release of this most recent report from the IPCC,  "Fox News even sought to mislead its viewers with a bait and switch, focusing attention instead on a deceptive, similarly named report that calls itself the Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), which simply regurgitates standard shopworn denialist myths and erroneous talking points."

Photos: Mother Jones Article: "This is What Global Warming Looks Like".  The photos were taken just 2 years apart.

Compiled from data obtained by hundreds of scientists, authored by dozens of climate change experts and based on improved global climate system models, the real IPCC report presents a sobering picture of global warming and its impacts.  Here are a few key ones:

•  "Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and since the 1950s, many of the observed changes are unprecedented over decades to millennia."  
• "Human influence on the climate system is clear..." [and] "has been detected in warming of the atmosphere and the ocean, in changes in the global water cycle, in reductions in snow and ice, in global mean sea level rise, and in changes in some climate extremes."
• By the end of the century, global surface temperature change is predicted to exceed the 1.5 degree Centigrade maximum target in all but one of the studied scenarios.  (1.5 degree Cent. is the maximum temperature rise vs. the period from 1850-1900, above which serious effects will be experienced globally.)
• "The rate of sea level rise since the mid-19th century has been larger than the mean rate during the previous two millennia. Over the period 1901–2010, global mean sea level rose by 0.19 ... meters." Global mean sea level will continue to rise during the 21st century.  Under all scenarios the rate of sea level rise will "very likely exceed that observed during 1971–2010" due to increased ocean warming and increased loss of mass from glaciers and ice sheets.
• "Continued emissions of greenhouse gases will cause further warming and changes in all components of the climate system. Limiting climate change will require substantial and sustained reductions of greenhouse gas emissions."
• "Cumulative emissions of CO2 largely determine global mean surface warming by the late 21st century and beyond.  Most aspects of climate change will persist for many centuries even if emissions of CO2 are stopped. This represents a substantial multi-century climate change commitment created by past, present and future emissions of CO2."

Because of the improved computer models and data since their last report in 2007, the IPCC's conclusions are stated with more confidence than ever.  Climate change will continue just like Obamacare whether Republicans deny it to or not.

Whether the world's nations will find the political will to reduce greenhouse gas emissions enough to reduce the effects of global warming is debatable.  Failing that, plans need to be made and actions taken to develop the infrastructure (dikes, sea walls, water removal pumping systems, etc.) that could protect low lying cities and coastlines.  Attacking the problem from another direction, NGO's and non-profits are developing projects that increase the "carbon sinks" available (simplest example I can think of is planting a tree).

 
The GlobalFloodMap.org website has an interactive map that shows the extent of flooding for a given rise in sea level.  I plugged in 18", a reasonable estimate based on the IPCC report.  More than 40 million people live in the areas that would be flooded.

An existentialist philosopher (not sure who) was considering how to judge the morality of an act.  To paraphrase him: "Act as if everyone in the world acted as you."  In other words if everyone did as you do, what would be the effect?  So, what can we do as individuals besides petition our governments to do the right thing or contribute to effective NGO projects? Reducing our individual and household carbon footprints would be one place to start.  There are a number of websites that allow you to estimate your carbon footprint and the impact of various changes in lifestyle. (Links to a few of these carbon footprint calculators are given below.)  And there are many webpages that list some actions that you can take.  Here are a few.
COTAP.org lists "14+ ways to your carbon footprint"
This New York Times article has suggestions for saving energy in the home
CarbonFund.org "ways to reduce your carbon footprint - also has a section on carbon offsetting

Note: I've not researched any of the NGO's or non-profits mentioned or linked in this post for effectiveness and/or administrative costs.  They were selected solely on the usefulness of their information.

Carbon Footprint Calculators
The Nature Conservancy's Carbon Calculator
U Cal at Berkeley Calculator (Cool Climate Network)
US DOE Calculator for Electric Cars and Hybrids - neat tool -  savings are significant but the tool is a good reminder that much of our electricity is from fossil fuels - some of which (e.g., coal) are more CO2-producing than gasoline



Highlighted IPCC 2013 report comments extracted from the "Summary for Policymakers"
1. Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and since the 1950s, many of the observed

changes are unprecedented over decades to millennia. The atmosphere and ocean have warmed,

the amounts of snow and ice have diminished, sea level has risen, and the concentrations of

greenhouse gases have increased.
2. Each of the last three decades has been successively warmer at the Earth’s surface than any preceding decade since 1850.  In the Northern Hemisphere, 1983–2012 was likely the warmest 30-year period of the last 1400 years.
3. Ocean warming dominates the increase in energy stored in the climate system, accounting for more than 90% of the energy accumulated between 1971 and 2010. It is virtually certain that the upper ocean (0−700 m) warmed from 1971 to 2010, and it likely warmed between the 1870s and 1971.
4. Over the last two decades, the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets have been losing mass, glaciers have continued to shrink almost worldwide, and Arctic sea ice and Northern Hemisphere spring snow cover have continued to decrease in extent.
5. The rate of sea level rise since the mid-19th century has been larger than the mean rate during the previous two millennia. Over the period 1901–2010, global mean sea level rose by 0.19 [0.17 to 0.21] meters.
6. The atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane, and nitrous oxide have increased to levels unprecedented in at least the last 800,000 years. CO2 concentrations have increased by 40% since pre-industrial times, primarily from fossil fuel emissions and secondarily from net land use change emissions. The ocean has absorbed about 30% of the emitted anthropogenic carbon dioxide, causing ocean acidification.
7. Natural and anthropogenic substances and processes that alter the Earth's energy budget are drivers of climate change. Radiative forcing (RF) quantifies the change in energy fluxes caused
by changes in these drivers for 2011 relative to 1750. Positive RF leads to surface warming, negative RF leads to surface cooling. Total radiative forcing is positive, and has led to an uptake of energy by the climate system. The largest contribution to total radiative forcing is caused by the increase in the atmospheric concentration of CO2 since 1750.
8. Human influence on the climate system is clear. This is evident from the increasing greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere, positive radiative forcing, observed warming, and understanding of the climate system.
9. Climate models have improved since the AR4 [the last IPCC report]. Models reproduce observed continental-scale surface temperature patterns and trends over many decades, including the more rapid warming since the mid-20th century and the cooling immediately following large volcanic eruptions. Observational and model studies of temperature change, climate feedbacks and changes in the Earth’s energy budget together provide confidence in the magnitude of global warming in response to past and future forcing.
10. Human influence has been detected in warming of the atmosphere and the ocean, in changes in the global water cycle, in reductions in snow and ice, in global mean sea level rise, and in changes in some climate extremes.  This evidence for human influence has grown since AR4. It is extremely likely that human influence has been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century.
11.  Continued emissions of greenhouse gases will cause further warming and changes in all components of the climate system. Limiting climate change will require substantial and sustained reductions of greenhouse gas emissions.
12. Global surface temperature change for the end of the 21st century is likely to exceed 1.5°C relative to 1850 to 1900 for all [climate change] scenarios except one. It is likely to exceed 2°C for [two climate change scenarios] and more likely than not to exceed 2°C for [one additional scenario]. Warming will continue beyond 2100 under all RCP scenarios except [one]. Warming will continue to exhibit interannual-to-decadal variability and will not be regionally uniform,
13. Changes in the global water cycle in response to the warming over the 21st century will not be uniform. The contrast in precipitation between wet and dry regions and between wet and dry seasons will increase, although there may be regional exceptions.
14. The global ocean will continue to warm during the 21st century. Heat will penetrate from the surface to the deep ocean and affect ocean circulation.
15. Global mean sea level will continue to rise during the 21st century.  Under all scenarios the rate of sea level rise will very likely exceed that observed during 1971–2010 due to increased ocean warming and increased loss of mass from glaciers and ice sheets.
16. Climate change will affect carbon cycle processes in a way that will exacerbate the increase of CO2 in the atmosphere (high confidence). Further uptake of carbon by the ocean will increase ocean acidification.
17.  Cumulative emissions of CO2 largely determine global mean surface warming by the late 21st century and beyond.  Most aspects of climate change will persist for many centuries even if emissions of CO2 are stopped. This represents a substantial multi-century climate change commitment created by past, present and future emissions of CO2.