It's one month until the 2014 midterm elections. Much has changed since the 2010 midterms, the first held after the infamous Citizens United decision. In 2013 the Supreme Court conservatives gutted the Voting Rights Act. In their 2014 McCutcheon decision, they completed their Citizens United work to allow unlimited amounts of cash to be spent to influence elections. The well-organized and well-funded Republican campaign attacking voting rights bore fruit across the country - 22 mostly Republican-controlled states have passed restrictive voting laws. The House districts gerrymandered by state governments controlled by Republicans after the 2010 census and elections make it a foregone conclusion that Republicans will control the House of Representatives for the foreseeable future. This will happen in spite of Congress' 11 percent approval rating and in spite of Republicans' utter lack of programs to help the country (no jobs bill, failure to extend long-term unemployment benefits, cuts to social programs, no comprehensive action on immigration reform or the environment or gun control, a government shutdown, etc., etc.,) As for the state governor races, the Democrats may pick up a handful of seats held by Republicans but perhaps not enough to put them in the majority. The only remaining question on the November election results is: "How can the Democrats retain control of the Senate?" (For more detail on the recent polls for the House and state Governor races, see below.)
The Senate races are key for the Democrats. Democrats and Independents who caucus with them hold a 55-45 majority. There are 21 Democratic and 15 Republican seats to be decided. Loss of the Senate majority would ensure an end to what's left of Obama's agenda and, just as importantly, an end to any hope for progressive or even moderate appointments to the judiciary. Republicans continue to find ways to slow or prevent the approval of Obama's judicial nominees in the current Congress even with the Democratic majority in the Senate. There are currently 63 judicial vacancies in the Federal courts. It is unlikely that the Senate will be able to confirm judges for even a quarter of these vacancies before the next Congress is seated.
In August, I looked at the key seats in play in red or swing states currently with a Democratic incumbent or retiring Senator. I concluded then that the Senate would be evenly split between Democrats and Republicans and that Democrats would barely hold onto a "majority" by the grace of the Vice-Presidential tie-breaking vote. Here's an update on those races based on more recent polls. The August poll results are shown in parentheses. The end result is one seat (Alaska) swings from Democratic to Republican.
Louisiana - Cassidy (R) 48.0% (46.8%) v. Landrieu (D) 43.4% (45.8%) - Republican lead up by 3.6%.
Alaska - Sullivan (R) 45.7% (41.0%) v Begich (D) 41.0% (44.0%) - Republican lead of 4.7% in October vs. Democratic lead of 3% in August
Arkansas - Cotton (R) 45.8% (47.4%) v. Pryor (D) 42.2% (43.8%) - Republican lead remains same as in August.
North Carolina - Hagan (D) 45.0% (45.8%) v. Tillis (R) 40.8% (44.0%) - Democratic lead up by 4.2%.
Virginia - Warner (D) 49.3% (51.0%) v. Gillespie 35.7% (33.7%) - Democratic lead down by 3.7%
Montana - Daines (R) 54.0% (51.7%) v. Walsh (D) 35.0% (38.0%) - Republican landslide
South Dakota - Rounds(R) 40.3% (44%) v. Weiland (D) 27.7% (29.5%) - Republican lead still in double digits
Iowa - Ernst (R) 44.6% (44.8%) v. Braley (D) 41.8% (44.0%) - Republican lead up by 2%
Michigan - Peters (D) 44.0% (43.8%) v. Land (R) 37.5% (39.2%) - Democratic lead up by 1.9%
But there's more..since August, two Democratic candidates from "blue" states - Udall in Colorado and Shaheen in New Hampshire - have fallen into close races with several recent polls showing them losing in November. If we assume the loss of at least one of these seats, then in these 11 key Senate races, Democrats will hold onto 4 seats and Republicans would capture 7. This would give Republicans a 52-48 majority in the Senate.
So how can a Republican takeover of the Senate be prevented?
(1) Vote.
(2) Canvass.
Facts and being on the right side of issues will never overcome the fears, lies and, at times, hatred being generated by the right-wing echo chamber. These drums have been beating since Obama won the Democratic nomination in 2008. By 2010, the lies about the Affordable Care Act, about the government coming for your guns, about the "failure" of the stimulus, etc., etc., had taken firm hold in the American political psyche. There's no turning that around in one month.
But Dems can still "get out the vote". Turnout will be critical if Democrats are to retain control of the Senate. But mid-term elections have notoriously poor turnout. Add to this the voter suppression laws that went into effect in many of the "Senate-crucial" states and the task in front of Democrats becomes daunting. If Democrats are to have any chance to hold the Senate, the electorate of 2014 needs to look like the electorate of 2008 rather than the electorate of 2010. Canvass, canvass, canvass. And, when you're thoroughly exhausted, canvass some more.
A number of organizations have set up "get out the vote" and "protect the vote" efforts. If you are in a state with a key Senate race, check with your local Democratic Committee or ACLU office. If you, like me, are in a safely Democratic state, volunteer for telephone canvassing shifts. Here's a link to the MoveOn effort:
MoveOn Home Shift signup - you can sign up for 2-1/2 hour shifts here
http://pol.moveon.org/2014calls/home_shift_signup.html?id=102563-4769646-0RY74Qx&t=5
And, of course, vote and encourage all like-minded progressives to vote.
ACLU Voter Information Page
Related
House of Representatives and Governor Races
Currently the Republicans hold a 34 seat majority in the House. Looking at the polls in August, I concluded that the best Democrats could hope for this year would be to reduce the Republican majority to 25 seats, but a more likely figure is that the Republicans majority would increase to 43 seats. So the more likely scenario would be that Republicans will pick up 9 seats in next month's elections. I see no reason to change that conclusion based on more recent polls, which show no noticeable change in voter sentiment.
In the same post, I looked at five governor's races - Florida, Wisconsin, Texas, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. The governors of these states are all currently Republicans. Republicans currently govern 29 of 50 states. The conclusion now is the same as the conclusion then. Democrats should be able to pick up a few governor seats - but don't expect a dramatic change. (August poll results are in parentheses.)
Florida - Crist (D) 43.4% (43.8%) v. Scott (R) 42.0% (42.5%) Democratic lead grew by 0.1%. Tossup.
Wisconsin - Walker (R) 47.8% (47.0%) v. Burke (D) 46.0% (46.3%) Republican lead grew by 1.1%. Tossup but moving towards Republican.
Texas - Abbott (R) 52.0% (50.5%) v. Davis (D) 39.3% (36.8%) Republican lead shrunk by 0.5% but still firmly Republican.
Ohio - Kasich (R) 54.0% (47.0%) v. FitzGerald (D) 32.8% (38.8%) - Republican lead grew by 12%. Republican landslide.
Pennsylvania - Wolf (D) 52.0% (52.0%) v. Tom Corbett (R) 36.1% (39.0%) - Democratic lead grew by 2.9%. Democratic victory.
Polling information in this post is from the Real Clear Politics website.
Showing posts with label polls. Show all posts
Showing posts with label polls. Show all posts
Monday, October 6, 2014
Tuesday, August 5, 2014
The Midterms - the Polls and What's at Stake
It's three months until the midterm elections. Besides the 435 House seats and 36 Senate seats to be decided on November 4, voters will go to the polls to elect 46 state legislatures, 36 state governors, and numerous local officials. The last midterms in 2010 swept Republicans into control of the House of Representatives and state governments and broke the filibuster-proof Democratic majority in the Senate. In 2010, Democrats lost 6 Senate seats and 63 House seats. The crushing defeats for Democrats were a primary motivator for writing this blog - my first post was "Anger and Lies in the Mid-terms." The 2010 midterms were a game changer. They led directly to the governmental paralysis at the national level that continues to this day. Just as importantly, increased Republican control of state governments resulted in gerrymandered districts and voter suppression laws geared to ensure Republican control of the House and to make more probable their takeover of the Senate. Supreme Court decisions on campaign finance laws and the Voting Rights Act also aid the Republican cause.
The midterms have historically led to losses for the President's political party. In the twenty-six midterm elections held since 1910, the President's party has lost, on average, 32 House seats and 4 Senate seats. Money and turnout determine elections. Money favors Republicans and turnout favors Democrats.
Thanks to the Roberts Supreme Court, the 2014 midterms will be the most expensive in history. The Open Secrets.org website tallies the financial activity for House and Senate races in 2013-2014. House races have generated $424 million for Republicans and $316 million for Democrats. Senate races have generated $207 million for Republicans and $197 million for Democrats.
Anyone doubting the influence of money on policy decisions will find it hard to explain policies that are opposed by the vast majority or that are morally bankrupt. We need only to look at the contributions to political campaigns and the amount spent on lobbying by, respectively, the pro-gun lobby ($4.3 million in political contributions in the 2012 election cycle; $22.2 million in lobbying for 2013-2014) and the pro-Israel lobby (Sheldon Adelson doled out $92.8 million to Republican super PACs in 2012; other pro-Israel groups contributed $16.1 million to the federal campaigns of both parties in the 2012 election cycle.) Anyone hoping for a change in policies that contribute to the income and wealth gap in the United States need only reflect on the contributions to political campaigns by the finance/insurance/real estate sectors ($228 million in campaign contributions to candidates and parties so far in the 2013-2014 election cycle).
Congressional disapproval ratings and the voter suppression laws increase the probability of low voter turnout. As of 2011, there were 42 million registered Democrats, 30 million registered GOPers, and 24 million independents. According to census figures, there are over 200 million people in the voting eligible population. About half the US voting population have not registered with a party or as independents. Turnout in midterm elections is even worse than that - the 2010 elections saw just 41% of the voting eligible population show up at the polls.
Both the money figures and the expected low turnout promise continued Republican control of the House and a loss of Democratic seats in the Senate. But where do the polls say we stand three months before the mid-term elections? Here's a look at the latest poll results for some specific races. (Data are from the Real Clear Politics website)
Governors
Florida - Charlie Crist (D) 43.8% v. Rick Scott (R) 42.5%
Wisconsin - Scott Walker (R) 47.0% v. Mary Burke(D) 46.3%
Texas - Greg Abbott (R) 50.5% v. Wendy Davis (D) 36.8%
Ohio - Jim Kasich (R) 47.0% v. Ed FitzGerald (D) 38.8%
Pennsylvania - Tom Wolf (D) 52.0% v. Tom Corbett (R) 39.0%
Two toss-ups, two Republican likely's and one Democratic likely in some of the most important Republican held states - some small gains in state governments but not a lot to cheer about here.
Senators
This is the key group. There are 21 Democratic seats and 15 Republican seats to be decided. Loss of the Senate majority would ensure an end to what's left of Obama's agenda and to any hope for progressive or even moderate appointments to the judiciary. These are the key seats in play in red or swing states currently with a Democratic incumbent Senator and/or with a retiring Democratic Senator:
Louisiana - Cassidy (R) 46.8% v. Landrieu (D) 45.8%
Alaska - Begich (D) 44.0% v. Sullivan (R) 41.0%
Arkansas - Cotton 47.4% (R) v. Pryor (D) 43.8%
North Carolina - Hagan (D) 45.8% v. Tillis (R) 44.0%
Virginia - Warner (D) 51.0% v. Gillespie 33.7%
Montana - Daines (R) 51.7% v. Walsh (D) 38.0%
South Dakota - Rounds(R) 44% v. Weiland (D) 29.5%
Iowa - Ernst (R) 44.8% v. Braley (D) 44.0%
Michigan - Peters (D) 43.8% v. Land (R) 39.2%
It's still early and many of the key races are toss-ups. But, if the vote were held tomorrow and the current poll figures held, Democrats would lose 5 Senate seats, making for a 50-50 split. Democrats would technically retain the majority only because of the Vice President's tie-breaking role in votes brought to the Senate floor.
Representatives
The composition of the current House of Representatives is 233 Republicans, 199 Democrats, and 3 vacancies. The most recent RealClearPolitics polling analysis shows 230 seats going to Republicans, 188 going to Democrats and 17 tossups. Splitting the tossups roughly in half makes for a Republican majority of 239 to 196 Democrats. In the best of all possible worlds - all tossups going to Democrats - the Republican majority would still be 25 seats - 230 to 205.
Finishing James Brady's fight for gun background checks [Newark Star Ledger editorial, Aug 4]
James Brady, Ronald Reagan's press secretary, died Monday at the age of 73. Brady was shot in the head during the attempted assassination of Reagan in 1981. He was permanently disabled and lived with constant pain but remained, until his death, "a tireless fighter for gun safety laws -- particularly the most common sense reform of all, universal background checks." The "Brady Law" passed in 1993 made background checks "a requirement for gun purchases from licensed dealers." It is credited with stopping the sale of "more than 2 million illegal firearms sales -- half of them attempted purchases by convicted felons." But Brady knew the job wasn't finished. The loopholes that allow 40 percent of gun purchases without background checks have never been closed. "Universal background checks are now supported by 90 percent of Americans, 84 percent of gun owners and 74 percent of NRA members. They don't march in line with industry lobbyists. We can only hope that eventually, the political class will yield to a public opinion that James Brady started to shift."
The midterms have historically led to losses for the President's political party. In the twenty-six midterm elections held since 1910, the President's party has lost, on average, 32 House seats and 4 Senate seats. Money and turnout determine elections. Money favors Republicans and turnout favors Democrats.
Thanks to the Roberts Supreme Court, the 2014 midterms will be the most expensive in history. The Open Secrets.org website tallies the financial activity for House and Senate races in 2013-2014. House races have generated $424 million for Republicans and $316 million for Democrats. Senate races have generated $207 million for Republicans and $197 million for Democrats.
Anyone doubting the influence of money on policy decisions will find it hard to explain policies that are opposed by the vast majority or that are morally bankrupt. We need only to look at the contributions to political campaigns and the amount spent on lobbying by, respectively, the pro-gun lobby ($4.3 million in political contributions in the 2012 election cycle; $22.2 million in lobbying for 2013-2014) and the pro-Israel lobby (Sheldon Adelson doled out $92.8 million to Republican super PACs in 2012; other pro-Israel groups contributed $16.1 million to the federal campaigns of both parties in the 2012 election cycle.) Anyone hoping for a change in policies that contribute to the income and wealth gap in the United States need only reflect on the contributions to political campaigns by the finance/insurance/real estate sectors ($228 million in campaign contributions to candidates and parties so far in the 2013-2014 election cycle).
Congressional disapproval ratings and the voter suppression laws increase the probability of low voter turnout. As of 2011, there were 42 million registered Democrats, 30 million registered GOPers, and 24 million independents. According to census figures, there are over 200 million people in the voting eligible population. About half the US voting population have not registered with a party or as independents. Turnout in midterm elections is even worse than that - the 2010 elections saw just 41% of the voting eligible population show up at the polls.
Both the money figures and the expected low turnout promise continued Republican control of the House and a loss of Democratic seats in the Senate. But where do the polls say we stand three months before the mid-term elections? Here's a look at the latest poll results for some specific races. (Data are from the Real Clear Politics website)
Governors
Florida - Charlie Crist (D) 43.8% v. Rick Scott (R) 42.5%
Wisconsin - Scott Walker (R) 47.0% v. Mary Burke(D) 46.3%
Texas - Greg Abbott (R) 50.5% v. Wendy Davis (D) 36.8%
Ohio - Jim Kasich (R) 47.0% v. Ed FitzGerald (D) 38.8%
Pennsylvania - Tom Wolf (D) 52.0% v. Tom Corbett (R) 39.0%
Two toss-ups, two Republican likely's and one Democratic likely in some of the most important Republican held states - some small gains in state governments but not a lot to cheer about here.
Senators
This is the key group. There are 21 Democratic seats and 15 Republican seats to be decided. Loss of the Senate majority would ensure an end to what's left of Obama's agenda and to any hope for progressive or even moderate appointments to the judiciary. These are the key seats in play in red or swing states currently with a Democratic incumbent Senator and/or with a retiring Democratic Senator:
Louisiana - Cassidy (R) 46.8% v. Landrieu (D) 45.8%
Alaska - Begich (D) 44.0% v. Sullivan (R) 41.0%
Arkansas - Cotton 47.4% (R) v. Pryor (D) 43.8%
North Carolina - Hagan (D) 45.8% v. Tillis (R) 44.0%
Virginia - Warner (D) 51.0% v. Gillespie 33.7%
Montana - Daines (R) 51.7% v. Walsh (D) 38.0%
South Dakota - Rounds(R) 44% v. Weiland (D) 29.5%
Iowa - Ernst (R) 44.8% v. Braley (D) 44.0%
Michigan - Peters (D) 43.8% v. Land (R) 39.2%
It's still early and many of the key races are toss-ups. But, if the vote were held tomorrow and the current poll figures held, Democrats would lose 5 Senate seats, making for a 50-50 split. Democrats would technically retain the majority only because of the Vice President's tie-breaking role in votes brought to the Senate floor.
Representatives
The composition of the current House of Representatives is 233 Republicans, 199 Democrats, and 3 vacancies. The most recent RealClearPolitics polling analysis shows 230 seats going to Republicans, 188 going to Democrats and 17 tossups. Splitting the tossups roughly in half makes for a Republican majority of 239 to 196 Democrats. In the best of all possible worlds - all tossups going to Democrats - the Republican majority would still be 25 seats - 230 to 205.
Finishing James Brady's fight for gun background checks [Newark Star Ledger editorial, Aug 4]
James Brady, Ronald Reagan's press secretary, died Monday at the age of 73. Brady was shot in the head during the attempted assassination of Reagan in 1981. He was permanently disabled and lived with constant pain but remained, until his death, "a tireless fighter for gun safety laws -- particularly the most common sense reform of all, universal background checks." The "Brady Law" passed in 1993 made background checks "a requirement for gun purchases from licensed dealers." It is credited with stopping the sale of "more than 2 million illegal firearms sales -- half of them attempted purchases by convicted felons." But Brady knew the job wasn't finished. The loopholes that allow 40 percent of gun purchases without background checks have never been closed. "Universal background checks are now supported by 90 percent of Americans, 84 percent of gun owners and 74 percent of NRA members. They don't march in line with industry lobbyists. We can only hope that eventually, the political class will yield to a public opinion that James Brady started to shift."
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