A Red Tide Swamps the US Political Landscape

The polls had it right.  Last night, Republicans swept to control in the Senate, picked up governor seats in blue states, and increased their control of the House of Representatives.  The Democrats' get-out-the-vote effort failed to overcome the dark money, the voter suppression laws, and their own inadequate and defensive explanations of their policies.  Republicans controlled the political debate much as they have since Obama took office: "Everything bad is Obama's fault.  Everything good he had nothing to do with."  For their part, Democrats, from Obama on down, failed to energize their base. The nation will need to live with the result: the most extreme right-wing Congress we have ever had.

Jeff Schweitzer, blogging at the Huffington Post, has one of the best analyses of the election that I've seen.  In his post, "The Price of Failure and Rise of Extremism: How Democrats Blew It", he writes: "the depth, intensity, and institutionalized hypocrisy of the political right has taken our country on a new course; conservatives are writing a new chapter...on cynicism, deceit and delusion. As we contemplate our world dominated by Republicans controlling the House and Senate, we must therefore consider life in the face of deep hypocrisy. Mitch McConnell, with a straight face and no apparent appreciation for irony, said that voters should install a Republican majority in the Senate because his party would 'be able to bring the current legislative gridlock to a merciful end.'...This story highlights the major failure of the left. Democrats have not defined the agenda or narrated the story. This capitulation creates a void of reason such that absurdities like McConnell's claim can take hold without everybody doubling over in laughter. Like frightened children Democrats run from Obama's record, as defined by the right, rather than championing his amazing successes as defined by fact."

One thing is certain.  Before the members of the 114th Congress take their seats in January, Senate Democrats need to push through as many of the 156 pending Federal judicial and executive branch nominations as they can.  Failure to do so will ensure Republican control of the judiciary and make Obama's last two years even more difficult and unproductive than the past four have been.  Hey Mitch, this may be a good place to start showing how intent you are to end gridlock.

What do we have to look forward to from this extremist Congress and a ham-strung moderate President in the next two years?

Some things are clear.

There will be cuts to domestic programs, increases in military spending, tax cuts for the wealthy and corporations, and, if Obama and Congressional Democrats don't go along with their radical agenda, a government shutdown or two.   Any progress on the environmental front will need to come from executive action. The War Powers Act as applied to the Middle East will not be changed and there will be no debate on the current bombing campaign.  Obama will not be able to get any progressive or even moderate appointments to the Federal judiciary through Congress.  One "good news" item: Social Security will not be privatized anytime soon.

Some things are not as clear.

Will Obama have the votes to resist neo-con-inspired congressional actions, such as increasing sanctions on Iran and funding for sectarian wars? Will he have the courage to pursue justice for the Palestinians and the courage to achieve a just Palestinian-Israeli peace?   Will he be able to close Guantanamo, that continuing insult to America's self-proclaimed adherence to the rule of law?

What changes will be made to the Affordable Care Act? Democrats should retain at least 45 Senate seats and Obama still has the veto.  So total repeal will be impossible.  However, Congressional Republicans can certainly reduce the number of people covered by the ACA - by removing the employer requirements and redefining full-time employees, by removing the penalty for non-coverage, and by reducing or ending subsidies for those earning too much to qualify under the Medicaid expansion.

Will Obama take executive action to progress immigration reform?  Will the Republicans threaten impeachment if he does so?  Will any action at all be proposed by Congress other than increased militarization of the US-Mexico border?  Republicans did not need the Latino vote to win these midterms and Obama's deportation policies were not something that would energize Latino voters.

How extensive will changes to Medicare be?  Along with Social Security and the Affordable Care Act, it remains one of the prime examples of what a Democratic Congress and President can accomplish.  That makes it a target for the extremists who now control the Republican Party - no matter how successful and well-liked it is.

Perhaps the best comment I heard during my GOTV calls in the weeks before the election was from a Kentucky voter.  He could not understand how anyone but "the 1%" could ever vote Republican, how people could continually vote against their own economic interests.  He mentioned that Kentuckians were hearing almost nothing about McConnell's opponent, Alison Lundergan Grimes, and a lot about Obama.  That strategy played very well in the South.  Later in my calls that evening, I spoke to another Kentuckian - an older woman, who was going to vote for McConnell because she was "tired of the handouts."  I thought of asking her which handouts in particular she opposed but realizing how thoroughly Republican myths have taken hold, I refrained.

This is the richest nation the world has ever seen.  We have one of the lowest tax rates, one of the highest levels of income inequality, and one of the least generous social safety net programs in the developed world.  To say we cannot afford to meet the basic needs of the most vulnerable in our society or to provide medical care for all is a lie.  But it is a lie that has become deeply ingrained in the political dialogue of the nation over the past three decades - a lie that has no place for "the common good" and promises more and more to those that have the most.

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The World Series. Halloween, and the Election

The US midterm elections will be held in five days. The Senate is up for grabs and there is a strong possibility that, come January, Republicans will be the majority in both houses of Congress.  The over-riding question for the election is: Will the vast sums of money being spent by the Chamber of Commerce, the Koch brothers and other conservative groups along with voter suppression laws and tactics in Republican controlled states beat back the get-out-the-vote effort being mounted by Democrats and progressive organizations? Too bad US elections aren't more like those in Brazil or Australia where voting is mandatory for citizens of legal age.  Oh, that's right, in our country there are some intent on making sure others do not easily exercise their democratic right to vote or, preferably, at all.

I've been calling progressive voters in swing states in MoveOn's get-out-the-vote effort.  Reactions range from enthusiasm to apathy to weariness to just hanging up the phone.  And these are the progressive voters!  This week I've called voters in Colorado and New Hampshire - two states that voted for Obama in 2012 but whose Senate seats are "in play" and could easily be lost to Republicans.  If, as has been predicted for the past couple of months, the Democrats do lose control of the Senate, at least we know that we tried to get people to the polls.  There are still a few days left and if you want to help out, you can do so at the MoveOn Shift Sign-Up page.  The system uses a "Hub-Dialer" and a brief training session is held at the start of each shift.

Wednesday night, the blue-state San Francisco Giants beat the red-state Kansas City Royals. It was the third time in five years that the Giants had won the World Series.  That they did so was due in large part to their 25 year-old pitching ace, North Carolina native Madison Bumgarner.  Bumgarner now ranks as the all-time World Series ERA leader with an incredible 0.25 Earned Run Average.  For comparison, pitching greats Sandy Koufax, Christy Mathewson and Mariano Rivera have career World Series ERA's between 0.95 and 0.99.  What does this have to do with the elections?  Probably nothing but, like many sports fans and ballplayers, I am slightly superstitious.  Could this Giant victory be an omen of the Dems holding onto the Senate?  Could Kay Hagan retain her North Carolina Senate seat? Or does the Giants' victory predict an outcome similar to the 2010 mid-terms, when the Giants also won the World Series.  That year marked the biggest loss of Democratic Congressional seats in seven decades.

Tomorrow is Halloween.  Halloween is an especially appropriate holiday for Republicans in an election year when their fear-mongering reaches a fever pitch.  Is there anything the Republicans and their media mouthpieces don't want you to be afraid of?  Death panels, a national gun registry, crime, Ebola, Guantanamo closing, immigrants, Muslims, people of color exercising their right to vote, people of color...the list is nearly endless.   No, like most of the Republican agenda, these fears are just bullshit. What I find much more worrisome is the specter of total Republican control of Congress.  Not so much because it will make an immediate, drastic change in our lives - it won't...Republicans already control the House and our centrist President Obama can serve as a firewall against any truly insane actions.  Rather we should worry because of what a Republican victory in the Senate would say about the gullibility and apathy of the American electorate.  True, there have been enormous roadblocks thrown in the path of democracy by way of  Supreme Court voting rights and campaign financing decisions, by rampant gerrymandering, and by voter suppression.  But these all happened because the conservative Republican agenda won in past elections, resulting in the court appointments and state legislatures that have turned American democracy into one that caters to the interests of the ruling class and where income inequality is among the greatest in the developed world.  Republicans have done nothing positive in the four years they have been in the House majority.  Congressional approval ratings are in the 11-12% range.  And yet Republicans are on the doorstep of total Congressional control and all that means for Federal Court appointments.  A scary thought indeed.

In the end, the Senate races may come down to something like the bottom of the ninth in the final game of the World Series.  The Giants up by one run, two outs, a man on third, and Bumgarner  on the mound, pitching his fifth inning of relief on just two days' rest,  Let's hope the result is as good for the country as Bumgarner's final pitch was for the Giants.

The Midterms - the Polls and What's at Stake

It's three months until the midterm elections. Besides the 435 House seats and 36 Senate seats to be decided on November 4, voters will go to the polls to elect 46 state legislatures, 36 state governors, and numerous local officials.  The last midterms in 2010 swept Republicans into control of the House of Representatives and state governments and broke the filibuster-proof Democratic majority in the Senate.   In 2010, Democrats lost 6 Senate seats and 63 House seats. The crushing defeats for Democrats were a primary motivator for writing this blog - my first post was "Anger and Lies in the Mid-terms."  The 2010 midterms were a game changer. They led directly to the governmental paralysis at the national level that continues to this day.  Just as importantly, increased Republican control of state governments resulted in gerrymandered districts and voter suppression laws geared to ensure Republican control of the House and to make more probable their takeover of the Senate.  Supreme Court decisions on campaign finance laws and the Voting Rights Act also aid the Republican cause.

The midterms have historically led to losses for the President's political party.  In the twenty-six midterm elections held since 1910, the President's party has lost, on average, 32 House seats and 4 Senate seats.  Money and turnout determine elections.  Money favors Republicans and turnout favors Democrats.

Thanks to the Roberts Supreme Court, the 2014 midterms will be the most expensive in history.  The Open Secrets.org website tallies the financial activity for House and Senate races in 2013-2014.  House races have generated $424 million for Republicans and $316 million for Democrats.  Senate races have generated $207 million for Republicans and $197 million for Democrats.

Anyone doubting the influence of money on policy decisions will find it hard to explain policies that are opposed by the vast majority  or that are morally bankrupt.  We need only to look at the contributions to political campaigns and the amount spent on lobbying by, respectively, the pro-gun lobby ($4.3 million in political contributions in the 2012  election cycle; $22.2 million in lobbying for 2013-2014)  and the pro-Israel lobby (Sheldon Adelson doled out $92.8 million to Republican super PACs in 2012;  other pro-Israel groups contributed $16.1 million to the federal campaigns of both parties in the 2012 election cycle.) Anyone hoping for a change in policies that contribute to the income and wealth gap in the United States need only reflect on the contributions to political campaigns by the finance/insurance/real estate sectors ($228 million in campaign contributions to candidates and parties so far in the 2013-2014 election cycle).

Congressional disapproval ratings and the voter suppression laws increase the probability of low voter turnout.  As of 2011, there were 42 million registered Democrats, 30 million registered GOPers, and 24 million independents.  According to census figures, there are over 200 million people in the voting eligible population. About half the US voting population have not registered with a party or as independents. Turnout in midterm elections is even worse than that - the 2010 elections saw just 41% of the voting eligible population show up at the polls.

Both the money figures and the expected low turnout promise continued Republican control of the House and a loss of Democratic seats in the Senate.  But where do the polls say we stand three months before the mid-term elections?  Here's a look at the latest poll results for some specific races. (Data are from the Real Clear Politics website)

Governors
Florida - Charlie Crist (D) 43.8% v. Rick Scott (R) 42.5%
Wisconsin - Scott Walker (R) 47.0% v. Mary Burke(D) 46.3%
Texas - Greg Abbott (R) 50.5% v. Wendy Davis (D) 36.8%
Ohio - Jim Kasich (R) 47.0% v. Ed FitzGerald (D) 38.8%
Pennsylvania - Tom Wolf (D) 52.0% v. Tom Corbett (R) 39.0%

Two toss-ups, two Republican likely's and one Democratic likely in some of the most important Republican held states - some small gains in state governments but not a lot to cheer about here.

Senators 
This is the key group.  There are 21 Democratic seats and 15 Republican seats to be decided.  Loss of the Senate majority would ensure an end to what's left of Obama's agenda and to any hope for progressive or even moderate appointments to the judiciary.  These are the key seats in play in red or swing states currently with a Democratic incumbent Senator and/or with a retiring Democratic Senator:

Louisiana - Cassidy (R) 46.8% v. Landrieu (D) 45.8%
Alaska - Begich (D) 44.0% v. Sullivan (R) 41.0%
Arkansas - Cotton 47.4% (R) v. Pryor (D) 43.8%
North Carolina - Hagan (D) 45.8% v. Tillis (R) 44.0%
Virginia - Warner (D) 51.0% v. Gillespie 33.7%
Montana - Daines (R) 51.7% v. Walsh (D) 38.0%
South Dakota - Rounds(R) 44% v. Weiland (D) 29.5%
Iowa - Ernst (R) 44.8% v. Braley (D) 44.0%
Michigan - Peters (D) 43.8% v.  Land (R) 39.2%

It's still early and many of the key races are toss-ups.  But, if the vote were held tomorrow and the current poll figures held, Democrats would lose 5 Senate seats, making for a 50-50 split.  Democrats would technically retain the majority only because of the Vice President's tie-breaking role in votes brought to the Senate floor.

Representatives
The composition of the current House of Representatives is 233 Republicans, 199 Democrats, and 3 vacancies.  The most recent RealClearPolitics polling analysis shows 230 seats going to Republicans, 188 going to Democrats and 17 tossups.  Splitting the tossups roughly in half makes for a Republican majority of 239 to 196 Democrats.  In the best of all possible worlds - all tossups going to Democrats - the Republican majority would still be 25 seats - 230 to 205.

Finishing James Brady's fight for gun background checks [Newark Star Ledger editorial, Aug 4]
James Brady, Ronald Reagan's press secretary, died Monday at the age of 73.  Brady was shot in the head during the attempted assassination of Reagan in 1981.  He was permanently disabled and lived with constant pain but remained, until his death, "a tireless fighter for gun safety laws -- particularly the most common sense reform of all, universal background checks."  The "Brady Law" passed in 1993 made background checks "a requirement for gun purchases from licensed dealers."  It  is credited with stopping the sale of "more than 2 million illegal firearms sales -- half of them attempted purchases by convicted felons."  But Brady knew the job wasn't finished.  The loopholes that allow 40 percent of gun purchases without background checks have never been closed.  "Universal background checks are now supported by 90 percent of Americans, 84 percent of gun owners and 74 percent of NRA members.  They don't march in line with industry lobbyists. We can only hope that eventually, the political class will yield to a public opinion that James Brady started to shift."

Anger and Lies in the Mid-terms

As expected, Republicans have taken over the House of Representatives and greatly reduced the Democratic majority in the Senate. It was a bloodbath.

By early Wednesday, Republicans had netted 60 formerly Democratic seats in the House and led in 4 more. Excluding Patty Murray’s (D-WA) seat, which is still too close to call, the Democrats lost a net of 6 Senate seats. So the total loss in Congress is about 70 seats. In the 2010 midterm, the Democrats have lost more than all the gains they made in the 2006 and 2008 elections (66 seats). 

For comparison, Democrats lost 62 seats in the 1994 "Contract for America" mid-terms.  You'd have to go back to 1938 for a mid-term loss larger than this one.  In that year, FDR's Democrats lost 79 Congressional seats. 

In two years’ time, Democrats have used up their political capital. They spent it on modest changes to health care (i.e., no single payer like most advanced democracies) and to the financial system and to saving the US auto industry. They enacted a stimulus package that was able to save 3 million jobs and helped keep the Great Recession of 2008 from turning into the Great Depression of 2009.

It was not enough and people were angry.

Democrats did not adequately respond to the misleading and downright false statements thrown out by Republicans and they paid for it.   The Big Lie (Harold Evans, The Daily Beast, Nov 1) is “that the aggressive fiscal and monetary measures by which Obama defended America in the Great Recession were a waste of money, a notorious example of the Democratic appetite for throwing money at any problem.” That is, “the stimulus didn’t work”. There were a lot of other lies and misrepresentation around health care and TARP and financial reform but this is the one that worked best for the Republicans in the mid-terms.

Should Obama have worked harder on jobs and less on health care in the first year? It would have made sense politically but let’s face it - extending health care to more than 30 million Americans is a major accomplishment.
Could he have pushed through a stronger stimulus? He might have if he seized the initiative and explained in simple terms why deficit spending is important in overcoming a recession.

The Democrats tried to do what was best for the country in the long run and ended up suffering for it politically.  Rachel Maddow had an excellent segment that summarizes the major accomplishments of the 111^th Congress with a Democratic President and Democratically-controlled House and Senate.

As a sidebar, the Blue Dogs who sometimes acted and voted like Republicans took it on the chin. They could have enacted the stronger measures that progressives were championing and lost anyway. According to an analysis by The Huffington Post, 22 of the 46 Blue Dogs up for re-election went down on Tuesday.
See also: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_midterm_election