Sunday Roundup - April 6, 2014

This is the weekly selection of news and opinion from sources outside the US mainstream media.  Today we look at climate change and, in brief, Syria, Ukraine and the EU economy.

"Nobody on this planet is going to be untouched by the impacts of climate change"

Climate Change Effects Map from IPCC "Summary for Policy Makers"

Spanish cargo ship hitting sea dyke in France during winter storm - Euronews

The second part of the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Fifth Assessment Report on global warming was released last week.  Computer simulations backed by empirical data "repeatedly drew causal links between the punishing natural phenomena [observed in recent years] and extended human activity."  Presenting the findings in Yokohama, IPCC Chairman Rajendra Pachauri said: “We have assessed impacts as they are happening, and impacts on natural and human systems on all continents and oceans. And I would like to emphasise that nobody on this planet is going to be untouched by the impacts of climate change." Speaking with euronews, Daniela Schmidt, the lead author of the report, said "what our findings very clearly spell out is that since the time of the dinosaurs we have not had climate change at rates as rapid as it’s currently happening."  [euronews, April 2]

The report assesses various options for adaptation to climate change and shows that "adaptation is an option only if efforts to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions are strengthened substantially. Without mitigation, the impacts of climate change will be devastating."  RealClimate.org has a summary of the key findings in the IPCC report.  Highlights from the post by climate scientist Wolfgang Cramer follow.

Impacts of anthropogenic climatic change are observed worldwide and have been linked to observed climate using rigorous methods. Such impacts have occurred in many ecosystems on land and in the ocean, in glaciers and rivers, and they concern food production and the livelihoods of people in developing countries - See more at: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2014/04/impacts-of-climate-change-part-2-of-the-new-ipcc-report-has-been-approved/#sthash.JFUgl8SE.dpuf

Impacts of anthropogenic climatic change are observed worldwide and have been linked to observed climate using rigorous methods. Such impacts have occurred in many ecosystems on land and in the ocean, in glaciers and rivers, and they concern food production and the livelihoods of people in developing countries - See more at: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2014/04/impacts-of-climate-change-part-2-of-the-new-ipcc-report-has-been-approved/#sthash.JFUgl8SE.dpuf

Impacts of anthropogenic climatic change are observed worldwide and have been linked to observed climate using rigorous methods. Such impacts have occurred in many ecosystems on land and in the ocean, in glaciers and rivers, and they concern food production and the livelihoods of people in developing countries - See more at: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2014/04/impacts-of-climate-change-part-2-of-the-new-ipcc-report-has-been-approved/#sthash.JFUgl8SE.dpuf

• Impacts of anthropogenic climatic change are observed worldwide and have been linked to observed climate using rigorous methods. Such impacts have occurred in many ecosystems on land and in the ocean, in glaciers and rivers, and they concern food production and the livelihoods of people in developing countries.
• "High” scenarios of climate change...will likely result in catastrophic impacts on most aspects of human life on the planet. 
• Significant reductions [in agricultural yields] are highly likely to dominate in later decades of the present century [from 2030 onwards]...The situation for global fisheries is comparably bleak...[with] a loss of marine productivity to be expected in nearly all tropical waters....
• Urban areas in developing countries will be particularly affected.  Improved urban planning, focusing on the resilience of residential areas and transport systems of the poor, can deliver important contributions to adaptation. This would also have to include better preparation for the regionally rising risks from typhoons, heat waves and floods.
• Enhanced global warming may significantly increase risks of future violent conflict.
• Economic losses will be most tangible for countries, regions and social groups already disadvantaged compared to others....[the] economic impacts of climate change will push large additional numbers of people into poverty and the risk of malnutrition, due to various factors including increase in food prices.
• There is no globally acceptable “one-fits-all” concept for adaptation....[Context-specific solutions] can provide opportunities to enhance the quality of life and local economic development in many regions – this would then also reduce vulnerabilities to climate change.

I was intrigued by the "context-specific solutions" for adaptation to climate change in the "Summary for Policy Makers"..  The tool kit for the adaptation solutions is contained in Assessment Box SPM.2 Table 1 and Table SPM.1 in the IPCC "Summary for Policy Makers."  The Assessment Box provides a summary of the major risks for each region and potential adaptation strategies.  Table SPM.1 covers everything from human development factors to ecosystem and disaster risk management to engineering, technological, and ecosystem-based options.  Will nations have the political will to prioritize the necessary actions?  Will they make the necessary effort to significantly mitigate greenhouse gas emissions?  Without this latter, the adaptation strategies will be for naught.

In Brief

“high” scenarios of climate change (those where global mean temperature reaches four degrees C or more above preindustrial conditions – a situation that is not at all unlikely according to part one of the report) will likely result in catastrophic impacts on most aspects of human life on the planet. - See more at: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2014/04/impacts-of-climate-change-part-2-of-the-new-ipcc-report-has-been-approved/#sthash.JFUgl8SE.dpuf

Syria
The transport of containers packed with 40% of Syria's chemical weapons to the port of Latakia for shipment outside the country is being has been delayed because of violence in the area.  Islamist insurgents launched an offensive in the region around March 20.  Syrian authorities have assigned forces to provide security for the convoys to deal with the increased violence in the area.  Meanwhile, the Syrian government and insurgents traded charges on chemical weapons last week.  The number of Syrian refugees who have fled to Lebanon officially topped 1 million on Thursday, highlighting the growing humanitarian catastrophe caused by Syria's civil war and the huge burden placed on its poorly prepared neighbors. [Reuters, April 2 and 3]

Ukraine
In a March 24 op-ed blog at The Guardian, Richard Norton-Taylor writes that instead of indulging in bluster and provocative rhetoric on Russia's annexation of the Ukraine, the UK and NATO commanders should make clear that NATO has no designs on the country. NATO has extended enough.  In a Le Monde Diplomatique post of April 3, Jean-Arnault Dérens and Laurent Geslin write that Ukraine’s president has fled and there is an interim government, but the power brokers who will make or break the country’s future include many of the same oligarchs who backed the last regime.  

European Economy
The International Business Times reported on April 1 that "In the EU, the unemployment rate was recorded at 10.6 percent in February, down from 10.7 percent in January and 10.9 percent in February 2013."  The lowest unemployment rates were in Austria (4.8%) and Germany (5.1%) while the highest were in Greece (27.5% in December) and Spain (25.6%).  The European recovery from the worldwide recession has been slower in Europe than in the US - primarily because of the European emphasis on austerity/deficit reduction.  In a January 2014 analysis of the different rates of recovery that appeared in The Guardian, Mark Weisbrot wrote: "After some stimulus..., the eurozone governments...engaged in more and earlier budget tightening than the United States did; and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has shown a clear relationship between this fiscal tightening and reduced GDP growth."  France is trying to do something about this overemphasis on deficit reduction.  In an April 2 post,  Euronews reports that: "Reversing France’s economic decline is high on the list of President Hollande’s priorities and his cabinet reshuffle means a more powerful role as economy minister for outspoken leftist politician Arnaud Montebourg...The fiery Montebourg has accused the European Union of hurting growth with austerity measures he says are misguided and called the policies of German Chancellor Angela Merkel 'dangerous and suicidal'.  As industry minister, he has been openly protectionist to secure French jobs, repeatedly sided with trade unions against bosses."



Other Links
Left Bank Cafe posts on the first part of the IPCC report published in 2013 can be found at this October 3 post and this October 6 post.

Sunday Round-Up: October 6, 2013

This is the weekly selection of news and opinion from sources outside the US mainstream media. Today we cover world reaction to the IPCC report on climate change.  Sources include the Natural Resources Defense Council Staff Blog, China.org.cn, Times of India, Hindustan Times, Pravda, The Guardian, Climate Central.org, The Japan Times, U.S. Energy Information Administration, and the East Asia Forum.

Millennium Island, Kiribati (Photo:AP)

 

The first part of the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report on global warming was released last week.  The remaining parts, which will examine the socioeconomic impacts of climate change and ways to mitigate its effects, will be released in 2014.  Scientists stated with more certainty than ever that the global warming is caused primarily by human activities.  (See October 2 post.)  The implications are ominous if the nations of the world do not act in a coordinated, meaningful and intense manner to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.  The world's five leading emitters of carbon dioxide in 2011 were China (8715 M metric tons), the United States (5491), Russia (1788), India (1726), and Japan (1181) - a function of the population of these countries, the strength of their economies, and their reliance on fossil fuels.  If the European Union were a nation, it would rank third, behind the United States. (Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration)

China's official reaction (China.org.cn, Sept. 27) is unequivocal: "Human influence on the climate system is clear. This is evident in most regions of the globe, a new assessment by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concludes."  The US-based Natural Resources Defense Council adds: "China's own 710-page Second National Assessment Report on Climate Change, released to the public last year, warns that China itself faces extremely grim ecological and environmental consequences from global warming.  These impacts, including increasing droughts and floods, threaten China's already vulnerable food and water supplies, and rising sea levels will affect millions of people in Shanghai and other highly populated coastal cities."  China and the United States as the world's largest contributors to greenhouse gas emissions know they must act and pledge to do so in their Joint Statement on Climate Change.  Besides the joint efforts with the United States, China is "is closing heavily polluting factories, prohibiting new coal-fired power plants in major industrial regions, and investing more in renewable energy than any other country in the world." [NRDC]

The Times of India and the Hindustan Times both drew sobering conclusions from the IPCC report.  The Times of India in an October 2 web article notes that the entire Indian subcontinent can expect longer rainy seasons: "...the report clearly points at 'enhanced summer monsoon precipitation and increased rainfall extremes of landfall cyclones on the coasts of the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea'.  Temperature rise and rainfall variations are expected to have an impact on the region's agriculture.  The IPCC report on "impact, adaptation and vulnerability" will be finalized and released next year.  On October 1, The Hindustan Times reported the preliminary conclusion of the effect on agriculture: "Higher rainfall will not mean more rainy days. It would amount to higher incidence of extreme rainfall events like what happened in June in Uttarakhand this June. With loss of green cover, the annual runoff will be more than 40% of the total rainfall.  Another paradox emerging from the report is that despite more rainfall there would be more water stress areas in the region, especially north and central India. The report also says that agriculture production would fall by about 9 to 25% in South Asia."

Russia is urging the IPCC to include geo-engineering solutions to the crisis in its reports.  Climate Central.org posted a piece by Guardian writer Martin Lukacs on September 24: "Geoengineering aims to cool the Earth by methods including spraying sulphate aerosols into the stratosphere to reflect sunlight, or fertilizing the oceans with iron to create carbon-capturing algal blooms.  Such ideas are increasingly being discussed by western scientists and governments as a plan B for addressing climate change, with the new astronomer royal, Professor Sir Martin Rees, calling last week for such methods to buy time to develop sources of clean energy. But the techniques have been criticized as a way for powerful, industrialized nations to dodge their commitments to reduce carbon emissions."  Anatoly Miranovsky writing for Pravda on September 10  notes that although a Stanford University study concluded that using "only one fifth of the wind energy available in the world, mankind can increase the amount of the consumed electricity seven-fold, ... Russia is [at] 64th place in the world in terms of generating electricity from wind (16.8 MW)."  China, the US, and the countries of the European Union are all developing wind projects.  The situation differs though in Russia.  "Wind power in Russia is not developed because there is virtually no support from the government" according to the co-chairman of the Russian environmental group Ekozaschita" Vladimir Spivyak.

Japan's commitment to reduce greenhouse gas emissions was thrown into chaos by the tsunami that wrecked the Fukishima nuclear plant in 2011.  A July 2013 article in the East Asia Forum notes: "At the 2010 UN climate change conference Japan committed to reducing its emissions by 25 per cent (relative to 1990 levels) by 2020 and 80 per cent by 2050. While these reductions were, in part, to be achieved through an emphasis on clean energy, the lynchpin of the program was to be its reliance on nuclear energy and the introduction of a price on carbon at the national level."  These plans were scuttled when Japan shutdown its nuclear industry after the Fukishima incident and Japan announced that it could not meet its commitments.  An even greater surprise was their withdrawal from the Kyoto Protocol, which "grew from both a frustration with the inadequacies of the program, especially the lack of global commitment, and a realisation that Japan could no longer continue to meet its emissions reduction commitments."  Japan's current approach is called "the Bilateral Offset Crediting Mechanism (BOCM). Under this regime the Japanese government is to recognise credits for investments in emissions reduction projects in developing countries."  The Japan Times reported on September 29 that this fifth IPCC report, which is to be concluded next year, may be the last of its kind.  As useful as these reports have been in gaining public attention and putting pressure on politicians to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, "some critics say these mega-reviews spanning thousands of pages belong to the past.  The process is agonizingly slow at a time when both climate change and the science used to evaluate it are leaping ahead, they say. And the need for consensus makes these comprehensive judgments worryingly conservative."  An October 3 article in The Japan Times (from the AP) reports on the ongoing court battles of a Kiribati man seeking asylum in New Zealand as a climate refugee.  "Kiribati, an impoverished string of 33 coral atolls about halfway between Hawaii and Australia, has 103,000 people and has been identified by scientists as among the nations most vulnerable to climate change.  In a transcript of the immigration case, the Kiribati man, whose name was withheld, describes extreme high tides known as king tides that he says have started to regularly breach Kiribati’s defenses — killing crops, flooding homes and sickening residents."

 

The Guardian (U.K.) has had many excellent climate articles over the past several weeks.  Michael Mann takes on climate change skeptics in a September 28 post.  (The Guardian webpage that presents Mann's article has a half-dozen or so links to informative articles on climate change and the IPCC report. The Guardian's September 27 Sustainable Business blog asks what about the private sector? What does the IPCC report mean for business and investors?  The head of HSBC's Climate Change Centre of Excellence notes: "India, China, Indonesia, South Africa and Brazil [have been identified as] the five G20 nations most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Together, they represent 31% of projected global GDP in 2050."  In a September 27 post reporting on the IPCC document, Guardian journalist Fiona Harvey pulls no punches in coming to the bottom line of the IPCC report:
"If people continue to emit greenhouse gases at current rates, the accumulation of carbon in the atmosphere could mean that within as little as two to three decades the world will face nearly inevitable warming of more than 2C, resulting in rising sea levels, heatwaves, droughts and more extreme weather."

Calved icebergs, Qaqortoq, Greenland (Photo: Joe Raedle/Getty Images)

Yup...it's still warming

========================================================================
Quote of the Day

“We do not inherit the earth from our ancestors; we borrow it from our children”
― Chief Seattle



========================================================================

Semi-relevant intro: The extremists who control the Republican Party have forced a government shutdown over the Affordable Care Act, which, incidentally, is the law of the land upheld by the Supreme Court of the United States.  How long the Tea Party shutdown will continue and how much damage it will do is anybody's guess.  By now, we are all tired of the relentless distortions and fear-mongering around the Affordable Care Act, aka "Obamacare".  (The Huffington Post has a slide show list of the thirteen worst lies and distortions about "Obamacare" if you are interested in refuting the know-nothings and liars.)  Moving on then, maybe we should turn our attention to another area of right-wing and special interest misinformation - climate change.  Last week's release of the fifth Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report provides stronger evidence than ever that human activity is seriously impacting global warming.

The right-wing has not been nearly as successful in shaking people's understanding of human-induced climate change.  An April 2013 Gallup poll indicated 62% preferred the statement "most scientists believe that global warming is occurring," while just 28% preferred "most scientists believe that global warming is not occurring."  Nevertheless, in spite of all the data, the climate change deniers and their allies in the media and Congress are keeping up the attack.  Perhaps the most egregious recent example is one noted by the Director of Penn State's Earth System Science Center, Michael Mann.  In a Huffington Post September 27 post, Mann notes that, prior to the release of this most recent report from the IPCC,  "Fox News even sought to mislead its viewers with a bait and switch, focusing attention instead on a deceptive, similarly named report that calls itself the Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), which simply regurgitates standard shopworn denialist myths and erroneous talking points."

Photos: Mother Jones Article: "This is What Global Warming Looks Like".  The photos were taken just 2 years apart.

Compiled from data obtained by hundreds of scientists, authored by dozens of climate change experts and based on improved global climate system models, the real IPCC report presents a sobering picture of global warming and its impacts.  Here are a few key ones:

•  "Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and since the 1950s, many of the observed changes are unprecedented over decades to millennia."  
• "Human influence on the climate system is clear..." [and] "has been detected in warming of the atmosphere and the ocean, in changes in the global water cycle, in reductions in snow and ice, in global mean sea level rise, and in changes in some climate extremes."
• By the end of the century, global surface temperature change is predicted to exceed the 1.5 degree Centigrade maximum target in all but one of the studied scenarios.  (1.5 degree Cent. is the maximum temperature rise vs. the period from 1850-1900, above which serious effects will be experienced globally.)
• "The rate of sea level rise since the mid-19th century has been larger than the mean rate during the previous two millennia. Over the period 1901–2010, global mean sea level rose by 0.19 ... meters." Global mean sea level will continue to rise during the 21st century.  Under all scenarios the rate of sea level rise will "very likely exceed that observed during 1971–2010" due to increased ocean warming and increased loss of mass from glaciers and ice sheets.
• "Continued emissions of greenhouse gases will cause further warming and changes in all components of the climate system. Limiting climate change will require substantial and sustained reductions of greenhouse gas emissions."
• "Cumulative emissions of CO2 largely determine global mean surface warming by the late 21st century and beyond.  Most aspects of climate change will persist for many centuries even if emissions of CO2 are stopped. This represents a substantial multi-century climate change commitment created by past, present and future emissions of CO2."

Because of the improved computer models and data since their last report in 2007, the IPCC's conclusions are stated with more confidence than ever.  Climate change will continue just like Obamacare whether Republicans deny it to or not.

Whether the world's nations will find the political will to reduce greenhouse gas emissions enough to reduce the effects of global warming is debatable.  Failing that, plans need to be made and actions taken to develop the infrastructure (dikes, sea walls, water removal pumping systems, etc.) that could protect low lying cities and coastlines.  Attacking the problem from another direction, NGO's and non-profits are developing projects that increase the "carbon sinks" available (simplest example I can think of is planting a tree).

 
The GlobalFloodMap.org website has an interactive map that shows the extent of flooding for a given rise in sea level.  I plugged in 18", a reasonable estimate based on the IPCC report.  More than 40 million people live in the areas that would be flooded.

An existentialist philosopher (not sure who) was considering how to judge the morality of an act.  To paraphrase him: "Act as if everyone in the world acted as you."  In other words if everyone did as you do, what would be the effect?  So, what can we do as individuals besides petition our governments to do the right thing or contribute to effective NGO projects? Reducing our individual and household carbon footprints would be one place to start.  There are a number of websites that allow you to estimate your carbon footprint and the impact of various changes in lifestyle. (Links to a few of these carbon footprint calculators are given below.)  And there are many webpages that list some actions that you can take.  Here are a few.
COTAP.org lists "14+ ways to your carbon footprint"
This New York Times article has suggestions for saving energy in the home
CarbonFund.org "ways to reduce your carbon footprint - also has a section on carbon offsetting

Note: I've not researched any of the NGO's or non-profits mentioned or linked in this post for effectiveness and/or administrative costs.  They were selected solely on the usefulness of their information.

Carbon Footprint Calculators
The Nature Conservancy's Carbon Calculator
U Cal at Berkeley Calculator (Cool Climate Network)
US DOE Calculator for Electric Cars and Hybrids - neat tool -  savings are significant but the tool is a good reminder that much of our electricity is from fossil fuels - some of which (e.g., coal) are more CO2-producing than gasoline



Highlighted IPCC 2013 report comments extracted from the "Summary for Policymakers"
1. Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and since the 1950s, many of the observed

changes are unprecedented over decades to millennia. The atmosphere and ocean have warmed,

the amounts of snow and ice have diminished, sea level has risen, and the concentrations of

greenhouse gases have increased.
2. Each of the last three decades has been successively warmer at the Earth’s surface than any preceding decade since 1850.  In the Northern Hemisphere, 1983–2012 was likely the warmest 30-year period of the last 1400 years.
3. Ocean warming dominates the increase in energy stored in the climate system, accounting for more than 90% of the energy accumulated between 1971 and 2010. It is virtually certain that the upper ocean (0−700 m) warmed from 1971 to 2010, and it likely warmed between the 1870s and 1971.
4. Over the last two decades, the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets have been losing mass, glaciers have continued to shrink almost worldwide, and Arctic sea ice and Northern Hemisphere spring snow cover have continued to decrease in extent.
5. The rate of sea level rise since the mid-19th century has been larger than the mean rate during the previous two millennia. Over the period 1901–2010, global mean sea level rose by 0.19 [0.17 to 0.21] meters.
6. The atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane, and nitrous oxide have increased to levels unprecedented in at least the last 800,000 years. CO2 concentrations have increased by 40% since pre-industrial times, primarily from fossil fuel emissions and secondarily from net land use change emissions. The ocean has absorbed about 30% of the emitted anthropogenic carbon dioxide, causing ocean acidification.
7. Natural and anthropogenic substances and processes that alter the Earth's energy budget are drivers of climate change. Radiative forcing (RF) quantifies the change in energy fluxes caused
by changes in these drivers for 2011 relative to 1750. Positive RF leads to surface warming, negative RF leads to surface cooling. Total radiative forcing is positive, and has led to an uptake of energy by the climate system. The largest contribution to total radiative forcing is caused by the increase in the atmospheric concentration of CO2 since 1750.
8. Human influence on the climate system is clear. This is evident from the increasing greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere, positive radiative forcing, observed warming, and understanding of the climate system.
9. Climate models have improved since the AR4 [the last IPCC report]. Models reproduce observed continental-scale surface temperature patterns and trends over many decades, including the more rapid warming since the mid-20th century and the cooling immediately following large volcanic eruptions. Observational and model studies of temperature change, climate feedbacks and changes in the Earth’s energy budget together provide confidence in the magnitude of global warming in response to past and future forcing.
10. Human influence has been detected in warming of the atmosphere and the ocean, in changes in the global water cycle, in reductions in snow and ice, in global mean sea level rise, and in changes in some climate extremes.  This evidence for human influence has grown since AR4. It is extremely likely that human influence has been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century.
11.  Continued emissions of greenhouse gases will cause further warming and changes in all components of the climate system. Limiting climate change will require substantial and sustained reductions of greenhouse gas emissions.
12. Global surface temperature change for the end of the 21st century is likely to exceed 1.5°C relative to 1850 to 1900 for all [climate change] scenarios except one. It is likely to exceed 2°C for [two climate change scenarios] and more likely than not to exceed 2°C for [one additional scenario]. Warming will continue beyond 2100 under all RCP scenarios except [one]. Warming will continue to exhibit interannual-to-decadal variability and will not be regionally uniform,
13. Changes in the global water cycle in response to the warming over the 21st century will not be uniform. The contrast in precipitation between wet and dry regions and between wet and dry seasons will increase, although there may be regional exceptions.
14. The global ocean will continue to warm during the 21st century. Heat will penetrate from the surface to the deep ocean and affect ocean circulation.
15. Global mean sea level will continue to rise during the 21st century.  Under all scenarios the rate of sea level rise will very likely exceed that observed during 1971–2010 due to increased ocean warming and increased loss of mass from glaciers and ice sheets.
16. Climate change will affect carbon cycle processes in a way that will exacerbate the increase of CO2 in the atmosphere (high confidence). Further uptake of carbon by the ocean will increase ocean acidification.
17.  Cumulative emissions of CO2 largely determine global mean surface warming by the late 21st century and beyond.  Most aspects of climate change will persist for many centuries even if emissions of CO2 are stopped. This represents a substantial multi-century climate change commitment created by past, present and future emissions of CO2.