Self-Driving Cars and Downloaded Minds - Part II

And now for the fantastical...

"I think the brain is like a program in the mind, which is like a computer, so it's theoretically possible to copy the brain on to a computer and so provide a form of life after death." Not a believer in the conventional concept of an afterlife, theoretical physicist Stephen Hawking was speaking during an appearance at the Cambridge Film Festival in late September.

Hawking has long suffered from motor neuron disease. When diagnosed fifty years ago at the age of 21, he was told he had three years to live. His primary means of communication with the outside world now is through a computer interface. Hawking's comments at the film festival take the concept of artificial intelligence to a level previously explored primarily in works of science fiction.

 

Artificial intelligence has been around for a while. The Turing test, a test of a computing machine's ability to exhibit intelligent behavior indistinguishable from that of a human, goes back to 1950. The term artificial intelligence was first used in 1955.  I worked on one form of artificial intelligence, the development of an "expert system", for a brief period back in the mid-80's - not quite the vacuum tube era but almost 30 years ago. The objective was to capture in a computer program the knowledge base and decision-making ability of an expert.  The computer program could then be used, for example, to help in the response to a plant emergency or to anticipate and correct potential manufacturing problems.

The increase in computing power has been literally exponential, but  some experts say that Moore's Law ("computing power doubles every two years") will soon be coming to the end of its usefulness .  We are reaching the physical limits of manufacturing silicon chips. Not to worry. The 2012 Nobel Prize in Physics was awarded to two quantum computing pioneers - Serge Harocheand David Wineland. Quantum computing, still in its early developmental stages, will make the billion-fold increase in digital computing power since the mid-1950's seem like the step from finger-counting to the abacus.

Ten years ago, a National Science Foundation and Department of Commerce sponsored paper noted that "Four transforming tools have emerged: nanotechnology for hardware, biotechnology for dealing with living systems, information technology for communication and control, and cognition-based technologies to enhance human abilities and collective behavior."  The continuing advances in computing capability and these other areas have led to speculation as to what the future holds.

 

Computers are everywhere and are already enhancing human capabilities in areas such as communications, medicine and vehicle safety. Robots are already capable of mowing lawns and cleaning houses. They soon will be, or already are, predicting monster storms, mapping vineyards for better wine production, clearing jellyfish blooms, fighting brain tumors, taking over exhausting and dangerous mining activities, teaching Japanese calligraphy, watching over sleeping patients in nursing homes, and, of course, in the form of superstar robot the Mars Rover, exploring space.

 

Science fiction has envisioned even more amazing scenarios - computing machines achieving self-sufficiency, a technological singularity, and, to Hawking's comments, personalities downloaded into computers.  Each of these poses some interesting philosophical questions. 

 

If computers or robots achieve self-sufficiency, to what degree should they be controlled and what rights should they have?  Science fiction (and science) writer Isaac Asimov's Three Laws of Robotics addresses the question: 

1. A robot may not injure a human being or, through inaction, allow a human being to come to harm.
2. A robot must obey the orders given to it by human beings, except where such orders would conflict with the First Law.
3. A robot must protect its own existence as long as such protection does not conflict with the First or Second Law. 

Scientists are taking the possibility of self-sufficiency seriously.  A February 2009 meeting under the auspices of the Association for the Advancement of Artificial Intelligence (AAAI) discussed the "extent to which computers and robots might be able to acquire autonomy, and to what degree they could use such abilities to pose threats or hazards". [Ref. 1]

 

The technological singularity is that "theoretical moment in time when artificial intelligence will have progressed to the point of a greater-than-human intelligence that will "radically change human civilization, and perhaps even human nature itself." [Ref. 1]  Asimov predicated a Zeroth Law of Robotics for the situation where robots had taken responsibility for government of whole planets and human civilizations: "A robot may not harm humanity, or, by inaction, allow humanity to come to harm." 

We have no way of predicting what a super-intelligence might actually mean for humanity and whether they would bother at all with the Zeroth Law.  Commentators have noted that evolution "has no inherent tendency to produce outcomes valued by humans, and there is little reason to expect an arbitrary optimisation process to promote an outcome desired by mankind."  Some have gone so far as to say that one result of a super-intelligent entity might be the extinction of humanity.  [Ref. 1]

Peter F. Hamilton's Commonwealth Saga and his Void Trilogy - five books set in the same fictional universe - present a world with faster than light travel, advanced post-physical civilizations, genocidal aliens, galaxy-devouring anomalies, and downloaded personalities.  The novels relate events over a span of more than a thousand years and many of the main characters are present throughout this time.  The lynchpins in this capability for extended life are the "memory cell" and advanced bioengineering.  Every so often, an individual's memories are downloaded into a memory cell.  When it's time to get young again or if the individual suffers a physical death, the memory cell is loaded into a re-fashioned body. 

There are several important questions to be asked when considering these examples of advanced artificial intelligence.  "Can computers or robots achieve enough self-sufficiency to become sentient?"  "How would we know if they do?" "Can an individual human personality be completely downloaded into a computer?"  "Would that downloaded personality be the individual?"

Which brings us to the crux of the matter - consciousness.  Consciousness is one of our great unanswered questions.  It is at the core of the human person and experience - I am aware that is I who am experiencing the external world. But no experiment has ever located it within the physical brain. It seems, to me at least, that to expect consciousness to spontaneously arise in a physical object when it attains a certain amount of intelligence is an extraordinarily long shot. As to the question of downloading a human personality into a computer, historian and philosopher of science John S. Wilkins writes: "Physical differences make a difference, and ahead of time we can’t predict what will have an effect on whether silico-me will behave the same way vivo-me does. While I am sure that we will manage to simulate “me” or somebody like me (more likely Stephen Hawking than me), the simulate won’t be “me” in any deep sense. It’s either going to be a representation of me that has some dynamical properties in common with me but not all, or it’s going to be a deep simulation of me that lives a day every so many months of realtime. And even then it won’t be exactly like me..."

Nevertheless, concepts such as robot sentience, machine super-intelligences, and near immortality make for great entertainment.  Science fiction, like all fiction, depends on the reader's "willing suspension of disbelief."  While reading science fiction may not increase our empathy as much as reading literary fiction (Science, October 3; Slate, October 28), it does exercise our imaginations and sense of wonder.  Occasionally, in the best of the genre, it allows us to think about some of the deeper questions of the universe. 



Reference and Images
Ref.1 is the ask.com's wiki entry on technological singularity.  Futurist Ray Kurtz predicts a date of 2045 for the singularity event.
Robot image is from Popular Science website.
Peter F. Hamilton collage is from his website.

Interesting Reading
For a unique look at consciousness, read neuroscientist Giulio Tononi's Phi: A Voyage from the Brain to the Soul.  From the Goodreads review: "Not since Gödel, Escher, Bach has there been a book that interweaves science, art, and the imagination with such originality. This beautiful and arresting narrative will transform the way we think of ourselves and the world."

Self-Driving Cars and Downloaded Minds - Part I

Some recent articles and news items bring home the realization that, from the mundane to the fantastical, the world of today seems to be edging closer and closer to the world of science fiction.

Let's start with the mundane. The October issue of Popular Science, which was devoted to automobiles of the future, has an 8-page article on self-driving cars. Google is in the lead in this area.  The company is currently beta-testing a self-driving car based on Google Chauffeur software and light detection and ranging technology ("lidar"). Lidar is a remote sensing technology that measures distance by illuminating a target with a laser and analyzing the reflected light. [Wikipedia]

 

 

 

[Image is from Popular Science]

 

Once the human driver activates the autonomous system, the vehicle transfers control of the brakes, gas, and steering to an onboard computer. The vehicle's roof-mounted lidar unit "probes 360 degrees with 64 laser beams, taking more than a million measurements per second." The data from the lasers are combined with a prebuilt navigation map of static infrastructure (telephone poles, for example) to give an accurate picture of the car's surroundings down to a distance of about 4 inches. The software then identifies moving objects (pedestrians, for example) and reacts accordingly.

 

When Chauffeur encounters a situation that it cannot interpret or finds a glitch during its self-

diagnostic checks, it system alerts and hands control back to the human driver. Glitches occur about once every 300 miles with the "incredibly low" bar that Google has set - in the words of Chris Urmson, the director of Google's self-driving car project. In 500,000 miles of closely controlled test driving there hasn't been a single accident caused by the Chauffeur system. 500,000 miles is about the average automobile accident rate in the U.S.

Detroit's reaction has been lukewarm to hostile; there are numerous state, national and international legal questions (how do you define a driver? whom do you sue when there is an accident?); and the current cost for a lidar unit is in the range of $80,000. 

Still the concept of self-driving cars is intriguing.  Sooner or later they will become a reality.   Proponents see fuel savings, elimination of traffic jams with computerized intersection managers, and fewer accidents in the future promised by self-driving vehicles.  Price and safety are the major factors to be overcome.

Besides Google's work, Volvo has "a simple auto-drive system called platooning, in which its cars autonomously follow a professional driver. It uses technology that's already built into every high end Volvo sold today, plus a communications system." The NHSTA's soon-to-be-announced vehicle-to-vehicle communications standard "would, at least in theory, enable all makes and models to platoon. And lidar could eliminate even the need for a lead driver." Both GM and Mercedes are working on systems that "use a combination of radar and computer vision to center the vehicle in the lane and maintain a safe distance from the car in front of it."

As the article notes, the real engineering and safety challenge is making sure the drivers stay alert. We have enough problems with them texting and talking on their cell phones. Not sure I'm ready for a highway where everyone thinks there is no need for them ever to look at the road. 

So much for the mundane...we'll take a look at the fantastical in the next post.

Sunday Round-Up October 27, 2013

In this week's selection of news and opinion from outside the US mainstream media, we look at European reaction to NSA spying, climate refugees, Syria and an update on the Bo Xilai case.  Sources include The Guardian, Deutsche Welle and BBC News.

The Guardian, which played a key role in bringing the NSA spying documents to the public's attention, had several stories on the European reaction to recent revelations. 

On October 25, Ian Traynor reported on warnings from Europeans that fallout from the spying was jeopardizing the international fight against terrorism:

__________________________________________________________________

"Germany and France are to spearhead a drive to try to force the Americans to agree new transatlantic rules on intelligence and security service behaviour in the wake of the Snowden revelations and allegations of mass US spying in France and tapping of the German chancellor Angela Merkel's mobile phone.  At an EU summit in Brussels that was hijacked by the furor over the activities of the National Security Agency in the US and Britain's GCHQ, the French president, François Hollande, also called for a new code of conduct agreed between national intelligence services in the EU, raising the question of whether Britain would opt to join in.  Shaken by this week's revelations of NSA operations in France and Germany, EU leaders and Merkel in particular warned that the international fight against terrorism was being jeopardised by the perception that mass US surveillance was out of control."
____________________________________________________________________________

The Guardian's Lizzie Davies and Angelina Chrisafis reported on additional revelations from Italy and France noted in  L'Espresso and Le Monde:

_____________________________________________________________________________
"The weekly L'Espresso magazine said it had learned that documents obtained by the whistleblower Edward Snowden showed the intensive monitoring of Italian telecoms networks by both the NSA and GCHQ.  L'Espresso ...said it had ascertained that Italy - and particularly Sicily - had become a focus of activity because of its strategic location between Europe, north Africa and the Middle East...

In France, the daily newspaper Le Monde published an internal NSA document which it said showed the "tensions and distrust between Paris and Washington".  The document, a preparatory note before a visit to the NSA by two top French intelligence officials in April 2013, shows that French officials suspected the US could have been behind a now well-known cyber-attack on the French presidential computer network at the Elysée in May 2012....The NSA document states that no US intelligence agency or of its close allies in Britain and Canada were behind the electronic attack...[and] shows that the US maintained it had no role in the cyber-attack."
_____________________________________________________________________________

Deutsche Welle had an October 24 article on the Kiribati climate refugee case now being considered by New Zealand immigration authorities and the "legal void" that surrounds such cases.   

The case should be decided by the end of this month - just several weeks before UN-organized Warsaw Climate Change Conference. Migration because of climate changes - rising seas, increased extreme weather events and desertification - will increase as global warming takes its toll. Recent estimates have put the possible total at 700 million by mid-century.   (See also Left Bank Café post "Sunday Round-Up October 6, 2013) 

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"Recently, Kiribati's government suggested relocating the entire island state's population of over 100,000 people, if predictions prove accurate that the sea will rise by one meter (3.25 feet) by the end of the century. At the moment, half of the population is crammed on to the central island of Tarawa, which comprises 32 square kilometers (12.4 square miles) of land. New Zealand and Australia, the two most developed countries in the South Pacific, have in recent years resisted calls to change immigration rules in favor of Pacific people displaced by climate change....

But, while conditions in Kiribati are difficult, they do not fall within the scope of the UN refugee convention, said Ska Keller, a migration policy expert with the German Greens party in the European Parliament. At the moment, Finland and Sweden are the only countries in the world to have passed legislation allowing people to apply for asylum for environmental reasons, but the processes there remain largely untested."
_____________________________________________________________________________

 

As the effort to secure and destroy Syrian chemical weaponry proceeds and the Syrian civil war continues, Deutsche Welle reports on alleged Jihadist attacks against Christians and moderate Muslims in an October 23 article.    

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 "They want to drive us out of Syria," [says] 29-year-old Jalal Gazouha, whose brother was killed by al Qaeda fighters...  By "they," he's referring to Jihadists from countries neighboring Syria...who have joined in the Syrian civil war to fight against the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. According to Gazouha, they're also targeting Christians.. ..When Gazouha received death threats, he fled the country. "I saw my name on a list on the Internet. That list contained names of Christians who were supposed to be killed, he says, written by "the terrorists of al Qaeda."

 

Jean Kawak, a Syriac bishop from Damascus, chose his words carefully when he spoke about the subject with DW. "We Christians have recently felt threatened by particular radical Islamist groups," he said....These radicalized groups are not only targeting Christians though, Kawak says. "Moderate Muslims are also being threatened."

 

"Reconciliation is possible," says Kawak - of that he is convinced.  But what kind of reconciliation could be possible between Bashar al-Assad and the rebels, the latter of whom have rejected any form of political solution that leaves Assad in power? .... Jochen Langer, Middle East expert at the International Society for Human Rights, shares the bishop's concerns. "The Syrian army is trying, as well as they can, to protect Syria's Christians," he told DW. "But that's only possible to a limited extent."...

 

Sadiq Al-Mousslie, a member of the Syrian National Council in Germany that forms part of the Syrian National Coalition, acknowledges that there were cases of "sporadic attacks by sick individuals" [but denies they were targeted attacks.]"

_____________________________________________________________________________

Update

[BBC News, October 25] Bo Xilai's appeal of his life sentence was rejected by a Chinese court. "The former Chongqing Communist Party leader was convicted [on charges of bribery, embezzlement and abuse of power].in September....Bo only receives one chance to appeal and his sentence is now final. He could submit a complaint to the Supreme People's Court in Beijing, but the vast majority of such complaints are rejected and do not result in another trial." (See also Left Bank Café post of September 29.)

Gun Deaths, the Second Amendment and the NRA

The shooting tragedy at the Nevada middle school this Monday has brought gun violence back to the nation's attention.  A twelve year old, a seventh grader, wounded two students, killed a teacher and then killed himself.  It's not a mass shooting (there have been 16 mass shootings since Newton) so it won't stay in the news cycle for long.  But it's the kind of tragic event that should give us all pause to think what the American attitude towards guns is costing the nation.  Scott Sonner (AP/Huffington Post) reported Tuesday that the student got the gun from his home: "Washoe County School District police said they are still working to determine how the boy obtained the 9mm semi-automatic Ruger handgun used in the Monday morning spree at Sparks Middle School. The boy's parents are cooperating with authorities and could face charges in the case, police said."  The teacher who was killed, 45-year-old math teacher and former Marine Michael Landsberry, was approaching the boy asking him to hand over the gun when he was shot fatally in the chest.  Michael Landsberry's heroic actions allowed students to run to safety and saved lives.  So we have two more deaths that may have been prevented with stricter laws to prevent gun violence.

Slate reports that from an analysis of the "most recent CDC estimates for yearly deaths by guns in the United States, it is likely that as of today, 10/23/2013, roughly 28,177 people have died from guns in the U.S. since the Newtown shootings."  There is so much that can be done to reduce the deaths but it is stymied by the guns lobby, led by its well-funded mouthpiece, the NRA.  They had a recent success in Colorado in the recall of two State legislators involved in the passage of Colorado's tough new gun law.  People can still get wound up by the NRA's fear-mongering.  The NRA and other right-wing funding sparked the voter turnout of gun rights advocates and destroyed any chance that the Colorado legislators would be able to keep their seats. 

The gross misinterpretation of the Second Amendment given by SCOTUS (what part of "well-regulated militia" did they not understand?) is part of the problem.  Maybe that out of date amendment, written at a time when you had to re-powder and reload your musket with each shot, really should be repealed or, at the very least, modified.   Stricter licensing - at least as stringent as we do for driving licenses - may be one way to modify it so that it serves the common good.  The Second Amendment, as currently interpreted is part of the problem but the gun lobby and its deep pockets are the main issues here.

We know the elements of reducing deaths caused by gun violence - better mental health monitoring, universal background checks, strict licensing procedures, strong enforcement of gun laws, prohibition against high capacity weapons and magazines, gun safety education.  But these will never happen as long as the gun lobby's fear-mongering goes on.  Mike Bloomberg's organization, Mayors Against Illegal Guns, is making a valiant effort to counteract the right-wing noise but I'm afraid that they are no match for the NRA.  It is always easier to stir up irrational fears and people hear what they want to hear.  Case in point - FOX News gives right-wingers what they want to hear so they tune in to hear the latest right-wing bias.  So, here's a message for the NRA -  shut the f**k up for the foreseeable future.  Stop your fear-mongering, erroneous Second Amendment waving, and blatant lies.  Maybe we can stop the gun madness that's afflicting the nation.

Some Updates on Previous Posts
Voter Suppression -  [Think Progress] The Texas Voter ID law, a common voter suppression law that disproportionately targets students, low-income voters and people of color, went into effect Monday as early voting begins for next month's election.  Because of its requirement that valid ID must include your current name, married women will also be affected if their ID has not been updated.  It's estimated that 2 to 3 percent of voters are disenfranchised by voter suppression laws in the various states.

Medicaid Expansion - The expansion of state Medicaid programs under the Affordable Care Act is an important part of the program since it extends help to those unable to afford it.  Thanks to the SCOTUS ruling, though, this expansion is voluntary and many Republican-controlled states are not offering this important piece of the social safety net to its residents. Republican Governor John Kasich of Ohio wanted to buck the trend.  He backed the Medicaid expansion and turned to the Ohio Controlling Board for approval after the GOP-controlled state legislature balked on the issue. But, as the Huffington Post and the Columbus Dispatch reported, "A group of [six] Republican lawmakers has filed a lawsuit over the Ohio Controlling Board's decision to expand Medicaid under the Affordable Care Act."  This lawsuit is being filed in spite of the $400 million the state would save as a result of the expansion because of Federal assistance.  The savings were to be used as a four percent state income tax cut. 

Sunday Round-Up October 20, 2013

In this week's selection of news and opinion from outside the US mainstream media, we look at the Iran nuclear talks, Saudi Arabia, Syria, and the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program.  Sources include The Guardian, the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, and Mother Jones.

In an October 16 article, The Guardian reports on the signs of progress in the initial discussions on Iran's nuclear program.  "Iran signalled the possibility of significant concessions over its nuclear programme in talks that closed on Wednesday, bringing the prospect of a breakthrough closer than at any time in the last decade, according to western diplomats."  The talks which ended Wednesday will reconvene November 7. "Those discussions will focus on Iranian indications in Geneva that Tehran could agree limits on its nuclear programme that ensure it can be used for peaceful purposes, and ultimately accept more stringent international monitoring. Iran has also requested that the US delegation bring financial experts to go into detail on how the economic straitjacket on Iran could be loosened."

In a report dated October 15, The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace discussed the increasing friction between Saudi Arabia and the US over recent US foreign policy moves in the Middle East - in Egypt, in Syria and in the recent slight warming of relations with Iran.  Of the latter, CEIP's Frederic Wehrey writes:  "That mild rapprochement brought to the fore an old specter: an U.S.-Iranian breakthrough that marginalizes the Gulf states and erodes their long-standing position as beneficiaries of U.S.-Iranian hostility."  Saudi political commentators "raised the fear of Iran reassuming the role of the Gulf’s policeman that it played during the era of the shah, with Obama’s backing. For others, it is not so much the danger of rapprochement—they agreed that U.S.-Iranian reconciliation would be good for regional peace—but rather the fact that the Gulf states are being sidelined, especially on a potential regional settlement of the Syrian crisis."

Also discussed at CEIP in an October 17 article is a way forward to peace in Syria.  Marc Pierini writes that "The Syrian war is being played out in Moscow, Tehran, and Washington. To achieve further progress, the three capitals cannot avoid working together on a diplomatic solution."  Speaking of Russia's long-time support for the Syrian regime, Pierini writes that this "may soon become a liability for Russian President Vladimir Putin." Putin, currently chair of the G20, wants to be considered a "key broker in the new world order."   Pierini writes: "The Russian leadership believes in the supremacy of the UN system...It also believes in political stability—that is, preserving the Syrian state—and Putin fears the rise of Islamist brigades in Syria, which have developed as a result of regime violence. Seen from this wider perspective, it may be argued that Putin’s ambitions in terms of world leadership can hardly be served by associating with thugs of a defunct era. If so, Bashar al-Assad is bound to constitute a major impediment to Russia’s policies."  As for the West, "...the United States, along with France and the United Kingdom, had no real choice but to entertain a plan to dismantle the arsenal of chemical weapons under the control of the rogue Syrian regime, as the weapons could well fall into jihadist hands as the regime crumbles or retreats to a smaller territory."   Finally, he notes "Iran’s primary objective is to regain its place in the international community and, according to recent statements, to exercise its full right to develop civilian nuclear reactors, not a nuclear weapons program. With this priority in mind and a dialogue just launched in Geneva with Western powers on Tehran’s nuclear program, a certain amount of Iranian moderation is needed on the Syrian issue...Iran is therefore expected to exercise a moderating influence on the Syrian regime." Russia, Iran and the United States all have a stake in making the chemical weapons regime work.  "Beyond chemical weapons, ending the Syrian nightmare clearly requires a few indispensable ingredients: maintaining strong Russian pressure on Assad; including Iran in the discussions about Syria’s future, under certain conditions; safeguarding the Syrian state, though without Assad in the final stage; marginalizing jihadist forces; and holding the Geneva II conference with all concerned stakeholders."

Now that Congressional Republicans are through with trying to deny access to health insurance to poor people, Mother Jones in an October 17 article reminds us of another of their continuing assaults against the vulnerable in this country.  "Shutting down the government and threatening a default in an attempt to block poor people from getting health insurance isn't the only thing House Republicans did over the past two weeks. They also continued their push to defund food stamps...last weekend, Democratic and Republican leaders in the House selected the lawmakers that will negotiate with the Senate to hammer out a final version of the farm bill, the massive bill that funds agriculture and nutrition programs. The main stumbling block for months has been how much money the bill should devote to food stamps; the House wants to strip $39 billion from the program, and the Senate wants to cut just $4 billion. The fact that Republicans in the House named one of the most anti-food stamp members of Congress [Florida Republican Steve Sutherland] to the committee that will decide the future of food stamps does not bode well for the program."  An estimated 3.8 million people will be removed from the food stamp program if the House cuts are enacted.  There is no need to do any of this, just as there was no need to threaten to default on the government debt other than the Republicans' refusal to raise taxes on the wealthy or even deny them their current loopholes and favorable treatment. 

Why Republicans Aren't Worried

The attempted destruction of Obamacare has been halted. The government shutdown and the phony debt ceiling crisis are over for now and Democrats are feeling pretty good about themselves.  As the self-inflicted spending and debt crisis unfolded over the past weeks, I've received emails from progressive organizations saying how vulnerable the Republicans will be in the 2014 elections because of their shutdown.  The most optimistic of these groups speak of 30 vulnerable House seats. 

The logic seems sound.  Republican Party approval rates are its lowest in history.  The damage from the shutdown is real and continuing.  The financial ratings agency Standard & Poor estimates that the shutdown has taken at least $24 billion out of the economy.  The "shutdown caused it to cut its forecast of gross domestic product growth in the fourth quarter by at least 0.6 percentage point. The agency lowered its estimate for GDP growth to close to 2 percent from 3 percent." [Huffington Post, October 16]  Viewing the larger picture of the crisis-driven government that we've had since the Republican victories in the 2010 mid-term elections, the research firm Macronomic Advisers estimates that "the resulting fiscal policy uncertainty has directly harmed the American economy by increasing the unemployment rate by 0.6 percent, or the equivalent of 900,000 jobs."  The report also notes that that the "fiscal drag, in combination with heightened fiscal uncertainty, has slowed the annualized rate of growth in the nation's gross domestic product by as much as 1 percentage point since 2010." [CNBC]

Unfortunately, history leads to another conclusion.   In just 3 of the past 21 mid-term elections has the President's party gained seats in the House. The most seats ever gained by the President's party in these twenty one mid-term elections is 9. That was in 1934, in the early years of FDR's administration, in the midst of the Great Depression.   As for other government shutdowns, the 1996 presidential elections came less than a year after one of the more memorable (Gingrich vs. Clinton). Democrats picked up just 2 seats in the House. Add to this historical background the well-financed Republican campaign to pass voter suppression laws - laws aimed specifically at restricting the vote of Democratic Party constituents, their successful redistricting to maximize the number of safe Republican seats, and the Citizens United decision ... well you get the picture.

 

So, much as I'd like to believe the rosy predictions of progressives about the coming demise of the Republicans, I really don't think Republicans are too worried about the 2014 elections.  Memories are short and those affected the worst were probably going to vote Democratic anyway.  There are plenty of wedge issues that can be used to divide the country and Republicans are the proven masters of this.  The continuing resolution will only take us through January or February.  There will be plenty of time before the elections if the lunatics and extremists that control the Republican party want to shutdown the government and threaten another debt ceiling crisis.  I hope I'm wrong but this may not be the last we see of crisis-driven government or attempts to destroy "Obamacare."

 

 

 

 

 

  

A World Cup Update & Waiting for Default

As we wait for the United States to default on its debt for the first time in its history in an incredible display of arrogance, extremism, and dysfunction, here's an update on an area of international interest to keep our mind off the coming debacle.  I'm talking, of course, about the 2014 World Cup qualifiers.  The first rounds in all regions are now complete and twenty one sides have qualified.  The remaining eleven slots will be filled in a series of home-and-home playoffs. 

Here are the teams that have already qualified for the 2014 World Cup Tournament:

- Graphic is from FIFA website

The remaining tournament teams will be selected by November 19 after a series of home and home playoffs. This is what it looks like:

Intercontinental playoff (SA-Asia): Uruguay vs. Jordan

Intercontinental playoff (NA,CA, Caribbean - Oceania): Mexico vs. New Zealand

Africa has completed Round 1 of its qualifiers.  The following 10 African teams are vying for the 5 slots allotted to the continent: Ghana, Ivory Coast, Nigeria, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Tunisia, Algeria, Ethiopia, Senegal and Egypt.

Europe has completed Round 1 of its qualifiers. Nine teams have qualified. The eight best second-place teams from Round 1 will compete for the remaining 4 tournament slots: Greece, Portugal, Ukraine, Sweden, Romania, Iceland, Croatia, and France.

Default

Hopefully, the USA will come off looking better in the tournament than we do in the coming default.  The Party of Tea is an embarrassment to this nation and the effects of their actions, should the default occur, will affect other countries as well as our own.  A New York Times article from today describes the consternation of the rest of the world well: A common question crossing continents remains quite simple: The Americans aren’t really that unreasonable and self-destructive, are they?   'It just goes to show that it’s not only Greece that has irresponsible and shortsighted politicians,” said Ioanna Kalavryti, 34, a teacher in Athens. 'We’ve been held hostage by our reckless politicians, and the interests they serve, for more than three years now. I guess our American friends are getting a taste of the same medicine.'

Sunday Round-Up: October 13, 2013

This is the weekly selection of news and opinion from sources outside US mainstream media.  Today we look at the Nobel Peace Prize, Syria, the West's inadvertent role in the spread of terrorist groups, the German elections, World Cup European qualifiers and the death penalty.  Sources include The Guardian, Le Monde Diplomatique, Al Jazeera and the Death Penalty Information Center.

The Guardian reported on Friday's selection by the Nobel Committee of the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) as the winner of the 2013 Peace Prize.  "The international chemical weapons watchdog, a relatively new global body, set up in 1997 in The Hague, with a relatively tiny annual budget of around £60m, trumped the established bookmakers' favourites of Malala Yousafzai, the Pakistani schoolgirl turned advocate for female education, and Denis Mukwege, the Congolese gynecologist who has helped huge numbers of rape victims."  The announcement was made by Nobel Committee chair Thorbjørn Jagland.  The prize was awarded for OPCW's " 'extensive efforts to eliminate chemical weapons'and nudge the few remaining nations that had not yet signed up to the organization."  Angola, Egypt, North Korea, South Sudan, and Syria (which have not yet signed the Chemicals Weapons Convention) plus Israel and Myanmar (which have signed but not yet ratified the convention) are considered non-member states. "Addressing reporters, Jagland said the award was a reminder to nations with remaining chemical weapons, such as the US and Russia, to get rid of them, "especially because they are demanding that others do the same, like Syria". He added: "We now have the opportunity to get rid of an entire category of weapons of mass destruction … That would be a great event in history if we could achieve that."

In the October issue of Le Monde Diplomatique, Serge Hamili takes on Obama detractors, who claim America's credibility was lost when Obama did not bomb Syria.  "The warmongers urged him to take a strong line in Syria: to violate international law by resorting to force without Security Council authorisation; to take no notice of anything Congress had to say; to disregard what it did say if that contradicted his expressed wishes; and to launch a military operation with far fewer allies than Bush’s “coalition of the willing” in 2003."  As for credibility, he notes America lost much of its credibility in pursuing unjustifiable, misguided wars such as "domino-theory" Vietnam ("Three million Indochinese perished. In 1979, four years after the US defeat, China and Vietnam were [engaged in a border] war") and "axis-of-evil" Iraq ("Today, Iraq is in ruins and the Baghdad government established by US soldiers is closer than ever to Iran.")  In October 2002, a young Senator Obama, in defining his opposition to the coming invasion of Iraq declared his opposition to what he called "dumb wars."  By pursuing a diplomatic solution to Syria, Obama "seems to have concluded that his credibility would easily survive a refusal to enter another dumb war in the Middle East."

In the same issue of Le Monde Diplomatique, Philippe Rekacewicz writes of the West's inadvertent role in the spread of the influence of jihadist terrorists: "Since 9/11 there have been four major western interventions in the Middle East and North Africa (not counting Israel’s wars in Lebanon and Gaza), which have contributed to the weakening of states and spread of jihadist groups."  He cites Afghanistan ("...the Taliban are stronger than ever [since their expulsion]. The conflict has spread to Pakistan, mainly through the use of drones."), Iraq ("Al-Qaida, not previously present, forms, drawing thousands of volunteers, mainly from the Caucasus and the Gulf, and mujahedin who first took up arms in Afghanistan. The state is struggling to rebuild itself."), Libya ("Thousands of fighters, largely African, who were enrolled in the Libyan army, swarm across the region, abandoning their arsenals, which are plundered. No one controls the border areas."), and Mali ("Although UN troops take over, France remains the central pivot of security in a phantom state. Al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) fighters are scattered across the region.") 

 



Al Jazeera reports on the start of the regimen to destroy the Syrian weapons.  "On Sunday [Oct 6], the U.N. began the long process of securing and destroying Syria's estimated 1,000-ton stockpile of chemical weapons. Syrian personnel, under the supervision of international disarmament inspectors, are working under a Nov. 1 deadline set by the U.N. to destroy the Assad government's capability to produce and use the weapons."  But Al Jazeera also reminds us that the Syrian civil war continues "Syrian government warplanes bombed rebel positions near a strategic northern town Tuesday...The warfare is a reminder that the agreement to destroy the Assad regime's unconventional weapons doesn't address an ongoing civil war that has seen more than 100,000 killed with conventional arms."

"Angela Merkel and her Christian Democrat party (CDU/CSU) have won a resounding victory in Germany’s general election," writes Chris Bickerton in October's Le Monde Diplomatique.  This is not surprising since Germany has uniquely survived the Eurozone crisis.  German industry "reformed itself in the early 2000's and rode an export-led boom that continues today....Germany’s current account surplus, at $246bn over the last year (6.6% of GDP), is greater than China’s."  Another factor in the victory was Merkel's steady drift leftwards.  Her adopting  "policies that first came from the left...had the effect of emptying much of the campaign of any traditional ideological conflict.... Instead, the campaign was fought around the language of risk and of personality. Germans preferred Merkel’s low-key, homely aspect to Steinbrück’s debonair image and, seeking reassurance in the widespread depoliticisation, voted for Merkel’s motherly, risk-averse approach."   As for the meaning of Merkel's victory for the rest of Europe: "It is possible that Merkel will soften her stance to some extent now the election is over... [She also] may compromise...on measures to boost domestic demand. If Germans were to consume a little more rather than save so much, that would help pull other Eurozone economies out of their deep depression."

An October 10 article in The Guardian shows once again the divergence between the United States and other advanced industrialized nations on executions.  "A German manufacturer confirmed on Thursday it had taken the extraordinary step of suspending shipments of a widely used drug to a US distributor this year after 20 vials were mistakenly sent to the state of Missouri to be used in executions."  The death penalty is banned in the European Union, and it bans the export of drugs for use in executions.  Missouri had been expected to "become the first US state to use the drug in an execution scheduled for 23 October...The German company's confirmation it had suspended the shipments came a day after Missouri announced that it would return the drugs to the distributor. Missouri is taking the unusual step some 11 months after the distributor frantically pleaded for the return of the vials, according to emails recently made public."  The Death Penalty Information Center reported on October 11 that "Missouri Governor Jay Nixon has stayed the execution of Allen Nicklasson, which was scheduled for October 23, due to concerns surrounding the use of propofol in executions. Gov. Nixon has directed the Department of Corrections to modify the execution protocol to include a different form of lethal injection."

The qualifying rounds for the 2014 World Cup move towards completion over the next few weeks, with many important games occurring through October 15.  The Guardian lists "10 things to look out for" in these qualifiers in an entertaining October 11 post.  Some European teams that haven't been to the World Cup tournament for a while (e.g., Belgium) are in a position to qualify for the slate of 32.

Photos
Map of the multiplying jihadist paths is from Le Monde Diplomatique
Photo of chemical weapons inspectors by Mohamed Abdullah/Reuters was published in Al Jazeera.

Are You in a Death Penalty State?
32 states in the US still have a death penalty. 18 states plus the District of Columbia have abolished it.  Link to DPIC fact sheet on the death penalty.  Want to do something about it?  Click on the link for your state at the DPIC's State Information page then scroll down to "Resources".  Information there will include organizations that work for the abolishment of the death penalty in your state.

One Week to Default

As the government shutdown enters its 10th day, we are more than halfway to the US defaulting on its debt for the first time in history.  Default is expected to happen on October 17 unless Republicans reverse their intransigence on raising the debt ceiling.  "In 2011, the last time we were in a major debt ceiling standoff, the U.S. lost its top credit rating, business and consumer confidence plunged and the impasse shook the stock market. All this, even though lawmakers ultimately reached a deal." [Huffington Post, Oct. 8]

This is all happening because Republicans want to stop Affordable Care Act.  "Obamacare", as it was been named by its detractors, reforms health insurance and extends affordable health insurance to tens of millions of Americans.  This law has been passed by Congress, signed by the President, and upheld by the Supreme Court.  In 2012, it (along with taxes on the wealthy) was the distinguishing issue in the Presidential election.  Guess what?  Obama won - by 5 million votes and overwhelmingly in the electoral college (332-206).  The campaign of lies and distortions against the Affordable Care Act [See this piece in Media Matters about 15 Myths perpetrated by the right-wing media] have managed to shake its acceptance with the public and the start-up computer glitches have made it more difficult to sign up for insurance with the health care exchanges. 

With Republicans refusing to budge and with the government shut down for the first time in 17 years, 800,000 government workers have been furloughed and the economy is losing $160 million per day.  Bad as all this is, what could happen if the government actually defaults?  Today, the NBC News website had an article by Jeff Cox that points out some worst possible outcomes:

• "Depression and Unemployment" - "Financial shockwaves, beginning at the Treasury and Federal Reserve, would make their way through banks and eventually blow a hole through the Main Street economy. Just as in the 2008 financial crisis, businesses would quit hiring amid the uncertainty."  Unemployment rate went from 5 percent in 2005 to 10 percent in 2009 as a result of the Great Recession.  Unemployment is currently at 7.3 percent.  We could ill afford another 5 percent on top of this figure.
• "Dollar down, prices and [interest] rates up" - "Among the biggest impacts could be mass selling of the U.S. dollar, an event that would threaten the greenback's standing as the world's reserve currency. That would pound consumers' buying power by boosting prices for everything from groceries to clothing to the gas we pump into our cars...homeowners and prospective homeowners would have to say goodbye to the low mortgage rates "
• "Down go your investments" - "Estimates among Wall Street analysts are the market would drop between 10 percent and 20 percent — with the upper end at what Wall Street defines as a bear market."
• "Social Security payments halt" -starting with the November 1 payment for the duration of the default.
• "Banking operations freeze up" - "If the Treasury and related securities were in default, one does not know what they would be worth," [banking analyst] Bove said. "Assume a Latin American valuation of 10 to 20 cents on the dollar and an estimated $1.28 trillion in U.S. banking equity would be wiped out."
• "Money market funds break" - "The $2.7 trillion money market industry operates on a basic premise: Millions of American depositors won't lose money."  Bove notes : "A Treasury default would make this virtually impossible and millions of Americans would lose billions of dollars."
• "Global markets walloped" - "Some of our biggest trading partners are equally rattled by the prospect of the U.S. defaulting on its debt. The International Monetary Fund this week warned that a default would push the U.S. economy back into recession and cause 'major disruptions' for global markets."

These are worst case scenarios but, considering that the United States has never in its history defaulted on its debt, do we really want to take a chance that none of these will occur?  All this to stop an already passed law that makes health care affordable and accessible to tens of millions of Americans.  What are these people thinking? 

Sunday Round-Up: October 6, 2013

This is the weekly selection of news and opinion from sources outside the US mainstream media. Today we cover world reaction to the IPCC report on climate change.  Sources include the Natural Resources Defense Council Staff Blog, China.org.cn, Times of India, Hindustan Times, Pravda, The Guardian, Climate Central.org, The Japan Times, U.S. Energy Information Administration, and the East Asia Forum.

Millennium Island, Kiribati (Photo:AP)

 

The first part of the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report on global warming was released last week.  The remaining parts, which will examine the socioeconomic impacts of climate change and ways to mitigate its effects, will be released in 2014.  Scientists stated with more certainty than ever that the global warming is caused primarily by human activities.  (See October 2 post.)  The implications are ominous if the nations of the world do not act in a coordinated, meaningful and intense manner to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.  The world's five leading emitters of carbon dioxide in 2011 were China (8715 M metric tons), the United States (5491), Russia (1788), India (1726), and Japan (1181) - a function of the population of these countries, the strength of their economies, and their reliance on fossil fuels.  If the European Union were a nation, it would rank third, behind the United States. (Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration)

China's official reaction (China.org.cn, Sept. 27) is unequivocal: "Human influence on the climate system is clear. This is evident in most regions of the globe, a new assessment by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concludes."  The US-based Natural Resources Defense Council adds: "China's own 710-page Second National Assessment Report on Climate Change, released to the public last year, warns that China itself faces extremely grim ecological and environmental consequences from global warming.  These impacts, including increasing droughts and floods, threaten China's already vulnerable food and water supplies, and rising sea levels will affect millions of people in Shanghai and other highly populated coastal cities."  China and the United States as the world's largest contributors to greenhouse gas emissions know they must act and pledge to do so in their Joint Statement on Climate Change.  Besides the joint efforts with the United States, China is "is closing heavily polluting factories, prohibiting new coal-fired power plants in major industrial regions, and investing more in renewable energy than any other country in the world." [NRDC]

The Times of India and the Hindustan Times both drew sobering conclusions from the IPCC report.  The Times of India in an October 2 web article notes that the entire Indian subcontinent can expect longer rainy seasons: "...the report clearly points at 'enhanced summer monsoon precipitation and increased rainfall extremes of landfall cyclones on the coasts of the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea'.  Temperature rise and rainfall variations are expected to have an impact on the region's agriculture.  The IPCC report on "impact, adaptation and vulnerability" will be finalized and released next year.  On October 1, The Hindustan Times reported the preliminary conclusion of the effect on agriculture: "Higher rainfall will not mean more rainy days. It would amount to higher incidence of extreme rainfall events like what happened in June in Uttarakhand this June. With loss of green cover, the annual runoff will be more than 40% of the total rainfall.  Another paradox emerging from the report is that despite more rainfall there would be more water stress areas in the region, especially north and central India. The report also says that agriculture production would fall by about 9 to 25% in South Asia."

Russia is urging the IPCC to include geo-engineering solutions to the crisis in its reports.  Climate Central.org posted a piece by Guardian writer Martin Lukacs on September 24: "Geoengineering aims to cool the Earth by methods including spraying sulphate aerosols into the stratosphere to reflect sunlight, or fertilizing the oceans with iron to create carbon-capturing algal blooms.  Such ideas are increasingly being discussed by western scientists and governments as a plan B for addressing climate change, with the new astronomer royal, Professor Sir Martin Rees, calling last week for such methods to buy time to develop sources of clean energy. But the techniques have been criticized as a way for powerful, industrialized nations to dodge their commitments to reduce carbon emissions."  Anatoly Miranovsky writing for Pravda on September 10  notes that although a Stanford University study concluded that using "only one fifth of the wind energy available in the world, mankind can increase the amount of the consumed electricity seven-fold, ... Russia is [at] 64th place in the world in terms of generating electricity from wind (16.8 MW)."  China, the US, and the countries of the European Union are all developing wind projects.  The situation differs though in Russia.  "Wind power in Russia is not developed because there is virtually no support from the government" according to the co-chairman of the Russian environmental group Ekozaschita" Vladimir Spivyak.

Japan's commitment to reduce greenhouse gas emissions was thrown into chaos by the tsunami that wrecked the Fukishima nuclear plant in 2011.  A July 2013 article in the East Asia Forum notes: "At the 2010 UN climate change conference Japan committed to reducing its emissions by 25 per cent (relative to 1990 levels) by 2020 and 80 per cent by 2050. While these reductions were, in part, to be achieved through an emphasis on clean energy, the lynchpin of the program was to be its reliance on nuclear energy and the introduction of a price on carbon at the national level."  These plans were scuttled when Japan shutdown its nuclear industry after the Fukishima incident and Japan announced that it could not meet its commitments.  An even greater surprise was their withdrawal from the Kyoto Protocol, which "grew from both a frustration with the inadequacies of the program, especially the lack of global commitment, and a realisation that Japan could no longer continue to meet its emissions reduction commitments."  Japan's current approach is called "the Bilateral Offset Crediting Mechanism (BOCM). Under this regime the Japanese government is to recognise credits for investments in emissions reduction projects in developing countries."  The Japan Times reported on September 29 that this fifth IPCC report, which is to be concluded next year, may be the last of its kind.  As useful as these reports have been in gaining public attention and putting pressure on politicians to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, "some critics say these mega-reviews spanning thousands of pages belong to the past.  The process is agonizingly slow at a time when both climate change and the science used to evaluate it are leaping ahead, they say. And the need for consensus makes these comprehensive judgments worryingly conservative."  An October 3 article in The Japan Times (from the AP) reports on the ongoing court battles of a Kiribati man seeking asylum in New Zealand as a climate refugee.  "Kiribati, an impoverished string of 33 coral atolls about halfway between Hawaii and Australia, has 103,000 people and has been identified by scientists as among the nations most vulnerable to climate change.  In a transcript of the immigration case, the Kiribati man, whose name was withheld, describes extreme high tides known as king tides that he says have started to regularly breach Kiribati’s defenses — killing crops, flooding homes and sickening residents."

 

The Guardian (U.K.) has had many excellent climate articles over the past several weeks.  Michael Mann takes on climate change skeptics in a September 28 post.  (The Guardian webpage that presents Mann's article has a half-dozen or so links to informative articles on climate change and the IPCC report. The Guardian's September 27 Sustainable Business blog asks what about the private sector? What does the IPCC report mean for business and investors?  The head of HSBC's Climate Change Centre of Excellence notes: "India, China, Indonesia, South Africa and Brazil [have been identified as] the five G20 nations most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Together, they represent 31% of projected global GDP in 2050."  In a September 27 post reporting on the IPCC document, Guardian journalist Fiona Harvey pulls no punches in coming to the bottom line of the IPCC report:
"If people continue to emit greenhouse gases at current rates, the accumulation of carbon in the atmosphere could mean that within as little as two to three decades the world will face nearly inevitable warming of more than 2C, resulting in rising sea levels, heatwaves, droughts and more extreme weather."

Calved icebergs, Qaqortoq, Greenland (Photo: Joe Raedle/Getty Images)

Yup...it's still warming

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Quote of the Day

“We do not inherit the earth from our ancestors; we borrow it from our children”
― Chief Seattle



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Semi-relevant intro: The extremists who control the Republican Party have forced a government shutdown over the Affordable Care Act, which, incidentally, is the law of the land upheld by the Supreme Court of the United States.  How long the Tea Party shutdown will continue and how much damage it will do is anybody's guess.  By now, we are all tired of the relentless distortions and fear-mongering around the Affordable Care Act, aka "Obamacare".  (The Huffington Post has a slide show list of the thirteen worst lies and distortions about "Obamacare" if you are interested in refuting the know-nothings and liars.)  Moving on then, maybe we should turn our attention to another area of right-wing and special interest misinformation - climate change.  Last week's release of the fifth Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report provides stronger evidence than ever that human activity is seriously impacting global warming.

The right-wing has not been nearly as successful in shaking people's understanding of human-induced climate change.  An April 2013 Gallup poll indicated 62% preferred the statement "most scientists believe that global warming is occurring," while just 28% preferred "most scientists believe that global warming is not occurring."  Nevertheless, in spite of all the data, the climate change deniers and their allies in the media and Congress are keeping up the attack.  Perhaps the most egregious recent example is one noted by the Director of Penn State's Earth System Science Center, Michael Mann.  In a Huffington Post September 27 post, Mann notes that, prior to the release of this most recent report from the IPCC,  "Fox News even sought to mislead its viewers with a bait and switch, focusing attention instead on a deceptive, similarly named report that calls itself the Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), which simply regurgitates standard shopworn denialist myths and erroneous talking points."

Photos: Mother Jones Article: "This is What Global Warming Looks Like".  The photos were taken just 2 years apart.

Compiled from data obtained by hundreds of scientists, authored by dozens of climate change experts and based on improved global climate system models, the real IPCC report presents a sobering picture of global warming and its impacts.  Here are a few key ones:

•  "Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and since the 1950s, many of the observed changes are unprecedented over decades to millennia."  
• "Human influence on the climate system is clear..." [and] "has been detected in warming of the atmosphere and the ocean, in changes in the global water cycle, in reductions in snow and ice, in global mean sea level rise, and in changes in some climate extremes."
• By the end of the century, global surface temperature change is predicted to exceed the 1.5 degree Centigrade maximum target in all but one of the studied scenarios.  (1.5 degree Cent. is the maximum temperature rise vs. the period from 1850-1900, above which serious effects will be experienced globally.)
• "The rate of sea level rise since the mid-19th century has been larger than the mean rate during the previous two millennia. Over the period 1901–2010, global mean sea level rose by 0.19 ... meters." Global mean sea level will continue to rise during the 21st century.  Under all scenarios the rate of sea level rise will "very likely exceed that observed during 1971–2010" due to increased ocean warming and increased loss of mass from glaciers and ice sheets.
• "Continued emissions of greenhouse gases will cause further warming and changes in all components of the climate system. Limiting climate change will require substantial and sustained reductions of greenhouse gas emissions."
• "Cumulative emissions of CO2 largely determine global mean surface warming by the late 21st century and beyond.  Most aspects of climate change will persist for many centuries even if emissions of CO2 are stopped. This represents a substantial multi-century climate change commitment created by past, present and future emissions of CO2."

Because of the improved computer models and data since their last report in 2007, the IPCC's conclusions are stated with more confidence than ever.  Climate change will continue just like Obamacare whether Republicans deny it to or not.

Whether the world's nations will find the political will to reduce greenhouse gas emissions enough to reduce the effects of global warming is debatable.  Failing that, plans need to be made and actions taken to develop the infrastructure (dikes, sea walls, water removal pumping systems, etc.) that could protect low lying cities and coastlines.  Attacking the problem from another direction, NGO's and non-profits are developing projects that increase the "carbon sinks" available (simplest example I can think of is planting a tree).

 
The GlobalFloodMap.org website has an interactive map that shows the extent of flooding for a given rise in sea level.  I plugged in 18", a reasonable estimate based on the IPCC report.  More than 40 million people live in the areas that would be flooded.

An existentialist philosopher (not sure who) was considering how to judge the morality of an act.  To paraphrase him: "Act as if everyone in the world acted as you."  In other words if everyone did as you do, what would be the effect?  So, what can we do as individuals besides petition our governments to do the right thing or contribute to effective NGO projects? Reducing our individual and household carbon footprints would be one place to start.  There are a number of websites that allow you to estimate your carbon footprint and the impact of various changes in lifestyle. (Links to a few of these carbon footprint calculators are given below.)  And there are many webpages that list some actions that you can take.  Here are a few.
COTAP.org lists "14+ ways to your carbon footprint"
This New York Times article has suggestions for saving energy in the home
CarbonFund.org "ways to reduce your carbon footprint - also has a section on carbon offsetting

Note: I've not researched any of the NGO's or non-profits mentioned or linked in this post for effectiveness and/or administrative costs.  They were selected solely on the usefulness of their information.

Carbon Footprint Calculators
The Nature Conservancy's Carbon Calculator
U Cal at Berkeley Calculator (Cool Climate Network)
US DOE Calculator for Electric Cars and Hybrids - neat tool -  savings are significant but the tool is a good reminder that much of our electricity is from fossil fuels - some of which (e.g., coal) are more CO2-producing than gasoline



Highlighted IPCC 2013 report comments extracted from the "Summary for Policymakers"
1. Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and since the 1950s, many of the observed

changes are unprecedented over decades to millennia. The atmosphere and ocean have warmed,

the amounts of snow and ice have diminished, sea level has risen, and the concentrations of

greenhouse gases have increased.
2. Each of the last three decades has been successively warmer at the Earth’s surface than any preceding decade since 1850.  In the Northern Hemisphere, 1983–2012 was likely the warmest 30-year period of the last 1400 years.
3. Ocean warming dominates the increase in energy stored in the climate system, accounting for more than 90% of the energy accumulated between 1971 and 2010. It is virtually certain that the upper ocean (0−700 m) warmed from 1971 to 2010, and it likely warmed between the 1870s and 1971.
4. Over the last two decades, the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets have been losing mass, glaciers have continued to shrink almost worldwide, and Arctic sea ice and Northern Hemisphere spring snow cover have continued to decrease in extent.
5. The rate of sea level rise since the mid-19th century has been larger than the mean rate during the previous two millennia. Over the period 1901–2010, global mean sea level rose by 0.19 [0.17 to 0.21] meters.
6. The atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane, and nitrous oxide have increased to levels unprecedented in at least the last 800,000 years. CO2 concentrations have increased by 40% since pre-industrial times, primarily from fossil fuel emissions and secondarily from net land use change emissions. The ocean has absorbed about 30% of the emitted anthropogenic carbon dioxide, causing ocean acidification.
7. Natural and anthropogenic substances and processes that alter the Earth's energy budget are drivers of climate change. Radiative forcing (RF) quantifies the change in energy fluxes caused
by changes in these drivers for 2011 relative to 1750. Positive RF leads to surface warming, negative RF leads to surface cooling. Total radiative forcing is positive, and has led to an uptake of energy by the climate system. The largest contribution to total radiative forcing is caused by the increase in the atmospheric concentration of CO2 since 1750.
8. Human influence on the climate system is clear. This is evident from the increasing greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere, positive radiative forcing, observed warming, and understanding of the climate system.
9. Climate models have improved since the AR4 [the last IPCC report]. Models reproduce observed continental-scale surface temperature patterns and trends over many decades, including the more rapid warming since the mid-20th century and the cooling immediately following large volcanic eruptions. Observational and model studies of temperature change, climate feedbacks and changes in the Earth’s energy budget together provide confidence in the magnitude of global warming in response to past and future forcing.
10. Human influence has been detected in warming of the atmosphere and the ocean, in changes in the global water cycle, in reductions in snow and ice, in global mean sea level rise, and in changes in some climate extremes.  This evidence for human influence has grown since AR4. It is extremely likely that human influence has been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century.
11.  Continued emissions of greenhouse gases will cause further warming and changes in all components of the climate system. Limiting climate change will require substantial and sustained reductions of greenhouse gas emissions.
12. Global surface temperature change for the end of the 21st century is likely to exceed 1.5°C relative to 1850 to 1900 for all [climate change] scenarios except one. It is likely to exceed 2°C for [two climate change scenarios] and more likely than not to exceed 2°C for [one additional scenario]. Warming will continue beyond 2100 under all RCP scenarios except [one]. Warming will continue to exhibit interannual-to-decadal variability and will not be regionally uniform,
13. Changes in the global water cycle in response to the warming over the 21st century will not be uniform. The contrast in precipitation between wet and dry regions and between wet and dry seasons will increase, although there may be regional exceptions.
14. The global ocean will continue to warm during the 21st century. Heat will penetrate from the surface to the deep ocean and affect ocean circulation.
15. Global mean sea level will continue to rise during the 21st century.  Under all scenarios the rate of sea level rise will very likely exceed that observed during 1971–2010 due to increased ocean warming and increased loss of mass from glaciers and ice sheets.
16. Climate change will affect carbon cycle processes in a way that will exacerbate the increase of CO2 in the atmosphere (high confidence). Further uptake of carbon by the ocean will increase ocean acidification.
17.  Cumulative emissions of CO2 largely determine global mean surface warming by the late 21st century and beyond.  Most aspects of climate change will persist for many centuries even if emissions of CO2 are stopped. This represents a substantial multi-century climate change commitment created by past, present and future emissions of CO2.