Kepler's Planet Bonanza

 "The more we explore, the more we find familiar traces of ourselves amongst the stars that remind us of home."

-Jason Rowe, a leader of the research team and a scientist at the SETI Institute in Mountain View, Calif. [as quoted by NPR]

"We are not alone."

- Close Encounters of the Third Kind (1977) trailer

 

(Image is from NASA - artist's conception of the Kepler-11 system)

NASA scientists announced a huge new cache of verified planets in the distant reaches of space on Wednesday. Analyzing data from the Kepler space telescope, NASA confirmed an additional 715 "exoplanets"  - an increase of more than 70% in the mission total.  The Kepler telescope shutdown last year after just four years of operation due to mechanical problems.  Scientists continue to analyze the mission data and, with Wednesday's announcement, have now confirmed nearly 1700 planets. 

The Kepler mission's objective is to search the universe for potentially habitable planets and some of the recently verified planets appear to be very Earth-like. NPR's Neil Greenfieldboyce reports "Four of the [newly discovered] planets are about twice the size of Earth and orbit in their star's so-called habitable zone, where temperatures might be suitable for liquid water." 

NASA hadn't posted the details of the new planets yet on their website but sorting through data on the earlier 961 or so confirmed planets I found at least 5 that appear Earth-like.  My favorite candidate - for far future habitation or intelligent life - is Kepler-69c.  Its average temperature is a bit warm (26 C  or 79 F) but certainly habitable.  Kepler-69c is a bit larger than the Earth with a radius 70% greater and has a 242 day year.  Just as interesting is its star's temperature, mass and size - all very similar to the Sun's.  How cool is that?  

Only problem with most of the discovered Earth-like planets is that they're 1000 light years away from Earth.  So a signal from us to them would be returned no sooner than 4014.  

Nevertheless this is exciting news.  We are getting more and more evidence that perhaps "we are not alone".  

Helliconia Trilogy
 
One of my all-time favorite sci-fi trilogies is the Helliconia Trilogy by Brian Aldiss.  Published in the 1980's, the trilogy describes the rise and fall of civilizations on an Earth-like planet with a year that lasts the equivalent of about 2500 Earth-years.  Helliconia is home to two intelligent races - humans and phagors, each trying to survive the incredibly long and severe seasons on Helliconia.  Aldiss does a masterful job of world- and species-building.  Wikipedia has a good introduction to the trilogy.

Related Posts
Anybody Out There? 
Voyager 1 Has Left the Building
Mars or Bust
Mars or Bust (Continued)
2312 (a novel by Kim Stanley Robinson)







 





 

Sunday Roundup - February 23, 2014

This is the weekly selection of news and opinion from outside the US mainstream media.  Today we look at the Iran nuclear talks, Arctic ice, Gaza, soccer in Brazil, video games as treatment for learning disabilities, the Syrian Civil War and the chaos in the Ukraine.


Iran
With the breakdown in the Syrian Civil War talks and with the apparent stalemate in Israeli-Palestinian peace negotiations, it's encouraging to find at least one ray of hope for the troubled Middle East.  As reported in The Guardian Thursday: "Three days of talks between Iran and six world powers in Vienna have ended to 'a good start' as diplomats negotiating for a final nuclear deal, agreed on a mutual framework before they could discuss details in future sessions."  EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton, who acts as "the convenor of talks on behalf of Britain, France, Germany, China, Russia and the US – the group known as P5+1 – is negotiating directly with Mohammad Javad Zarif, Iran's foreign minister."   Ashton said both sides had "agreed to start the technical work and further political discussions as early as March. They would set a timetable over four months to discuss the differences that have so far prevented settlement of the decades-long dispute over Tehran's nuclear programme."



Climate Change
It's been a wild winter in the Northern Hemisphere - drought in California, avalanches in the Rockies, winter storms in the Midwest, Northeast, and Southeast, massive flooding in the UK.  Anyone out there still unconcerned about global climate change or humankind's role in causing it?  Ryan Koronowski reported Thursday on the ClimateProgress website of a new "record".  In February, Arctic sea ice dipped to "record low levels in February. On the 18th, sea ice covered 5.544 million square miles of the Arctic, while the previous low on that date was in 2006, at 5.548 million square miles."   The sea ice is dwindling even in the almost perpetual darkness of winter "because there is less of its bright whiteness to reflect back sunlight into space. As the ice melts, more of the surface area changes to darker ocean water, which absorbs the sun’s energy, warming the ocean and allowing more ice to melt."  Some researchers are blaming the frequent strong winter storms in the UK on this phenomenon.
(Image of flooding near Tewksbury is from the Daily Mail; copyright by Adam Gray/SWNS.com)



Gaza
Bad as the Palestinian situation is in the West Bank, it's much worse in the Gaza Strip, where Israel, with assistance from Egypt, has maintained a blockade on Gaza's 1.7 million inhabitants since 2007.  Gaza is back in the news in recent weeks.  After the Arab Spring there was some easing of restrictions on the Egyptian side.  Unfortunately,  Egypt closed supply tunnels on its border with Gaza after the Muslim Brotherhood was removed from power.  Earlier this month, far-right members of the Israeli Knesset walked out on a speech by European Parliament President Martin Schulz when he criticized Israel for its blockade of the Gaza Strip and for the Israeli water policy in the Occupied Territories.  On February 12, a dozen human rights organizations, including Amnesty International, called upon the European Union to urge Israel to "immediately, unconditionally and completely...lift the unlawful closure of the Gaza Strip, and demand that all parties comply with their obligations under international law."  Calling Israel’s closure of the Gaza Strip a collective punishment of 1.7 million Palestinians and a "breach of international humanitarian law", the rights organizations noted that the "impact of the closure and the violence on the population’s right to life, health, education, food, water and an adequate standard of living has never been clearer."
(Photo of two Gaza children looking through rubble after an Israeli airstrike is by EPA/Mohammed Saber and appeared in The Telegraph in Nov 2012)


Brazil and Soccer - The Beautiful Language
As we all know, the World Cup is being played in Brazil this year.  In a brilliant article for Roads & Kingdoms' "Far Post" series, sportswriter Jack Lang writes about the unique Brazilian "language" for the sport.  As the World Cup approaches "amid the FIFA-approved images of soccer stars in sun-drenched stadiums, much of what truly defines Brazilian football will be concealed, lost in translation. For while Neymar, Thiago Silva et al represent one aspect of this nation’s continuing clout in the sport, there is another sphere in which it excels. No other nation can match the verve with which Brazil talks and writes about o jogo bonito."  From players' nicknames to sportscasters' commentary to their creative shorthand descriptions of play, the article is a great romp through the language and character of Brazil's soccer culture. 


Your Brain and Video Games
On Tuesday, the Utne Reader reported on an Oxford University study that "indicates that video games may be able to help the 5 to 10 percent of the world’s population who are affected by dyslexia.  UR notes that this is not the first study to point out the benefits of video games. "Past research has shown that playing video games can improve mental reasoning and decision-making skills as well as precision and self-esteem."


Ukraine
The violence in the Ukraine, which has resulted in as  many as 100 deaths over the past week, seems to have ended thanks to a deal to cut the President's powers, revise the Constitution and release an opposition leader.  Mother Jones tries to describe "why Kiev is burning":  "The EuroMaidan protests, which started on November 21 in response to President Viktor Yanukovych's rejection of a European Union trade deal, have been going on for nearly three months....the conflict is fueled by sharp political and ethnic divides. A significant portion of the population wants closer ties to Europe, but Putin has been pressuring Yanukovych's government toward closer economic integration with Russia."

In Brief/Other Links 

For more on the second reason for the Israeli far-right-wing walkout during Martin Schultz' address to the Knesset, see  Haaretz, February 16 "The Israeli 'watergate' scandal: The facts about Palestinian water"


For other soccer culture articles, here's a link to the home page of "The Far Post" series.


Syrian and American diplomats "blamed each other for a lack of progress at peace talks in Geneva aimed at opening a dialogue between Damascus and opposition representatives from the Syrian National Coalition, who are fighting a civil war that activists say has claimed 140,000 lives. The peace talks broke off Saturday (Feb 13), and it’s not clear when, or if, they’ll resume." [Al Jazeera, February 16]

Raise the Minimum Wage Now

Back from a brief vacation, in which I spent little to no time following the news, I see nothing much has changed.  One good thing that did happen is that the debt ceiling appears to have been suspended until March 2015.  That will at least make it a non-issue for the months leading up to the midterm elections. 


One item that will be an issue in the midterms is the minimum wage.   The positions on this are pretty much what you'd expect - Democrats support it and Republicans oppose it.  Muddying the waters right now is a CBO report that says raising the minimum wage to $10.10 would lift 900,000 workers out of poverty but potentially cause a loss of 500,000 jobs - though they admit the job loss could be very slight or up to a million.  Sounds like a compromise guess to me.  One guy says "Hey, we could lose a million jobs!".  Another says, "Not so, historically we've lost almost none whenever we've done this before."  "Okay let's say it's somewhere in the middle - 500,000."  "Agreed." 


Prone as CBO statements are to misinterpretation or outright abuse, this one will go far to aid the Republicans.  But what has been the historical impact on job growth and what do today's leading economists say?


Historically, there has been little impact of changes in minimum wage on employment rate.  A landmark 2010 study at the University of California- Berkeley examined the effects of the numerous state changes to minimum wage during the 1990's and 2000's.   By comparing counties that did raise the minimum wage with cross-state counties that did not, they found little to no impact on employment.


In fact, the effect of minimum wage changes on employment is one of the most studied in all of economics.  In 2013, the Center for Economic and Policy Research reviewed these studies and concluded: "The weight of that evidence points to little or no employment response to modest increases in the minimum wage."  CEPR then went on to examine "why the measured employment effects are so consistently small. The strongest evidence suggests that the most important channels of adjustment are: reductions in labor turnover; improvements in organizational efficiency; reductions in wages of higher earners ("wage compression"); and small price increases. Given the relatively small cost to employers of modest increases in the minimum wage, these adjustment mechanisms appear to be more than sufficient to avoid employment losses, even for employers with a large share of low-wage workers."


So when discussing this with your Fox News watching friends and relatives, here are a few more nuggets to toss their way from a fact check on MediaMatters.org that destroy the myth of job loss, the damage to small businesses or the preponderance of teenagers in minimum wage jobs:

• Numerous Studies Suggest Minimum Wage Increases Don't Kill Jobs, And May Even Increase Hiring
• Research Suggests Minimum Wage Increases Do Not Hurt Teen Employment
• Data Show States With Increased Minimum Wage Had Higher Small Business Job Growth. 
• "Indicators Of Economic Performance Were Consistently Better" In Higher Minimum Wage States For Small Business Job Growth
• Minimum Wage Growth Has Lagged Inflation, Leaving Minimum Wage Earners With Far Less Purchasing Power Today Than Previous Decades
• Half Of Minimum Wage Earners Are 25 Or Older, Representing Millions Of Adult Workers
• Less Than A Quarter Of Minimum Wage Earners Are Younger Than 20

The Raise the Minimum Wage. com website covers much of the same ground but also summarizes data from several other sources:

• leading economists agreed by a nearly 4 to 1 margin that the benefits of raising and indexing the minimum wage outweigh the costs.
• the most precise economic studies show no impact of minimum wage on job loss
• studies showing job loss from minimum wage increases invariably use imprecise or faulty methodology 

On the Misuse of CBO statements

A recent egregious example of the misuse of CBO statements occurred a week or so ago when Republicans started screaming "job loss from Obamacare."  What the CBO statement really said was that some may choose to work less hours or perhaps retire if they were given a chance to have affordable health care.  It's a demand side adjustment, you morons!  Not having to work two jobs to have health care is a good thing.  Not worrying about health care in retirement (whether forced or unforced) is a good thing.  These jobs will not go away - others will fill them and reduce the level of unemployment in the country.

Sunday Round-Up - February 9, 2014

This is the weekly selection of news and opinion from sources outside the US mainstream media.  Today we look at the Syrian Civil War, Israeli-Palestinian relations, the Eurozone recession, the cuts to the US food stamps program and climate change.



Syria
With a three-day ceasefire in place, the first stage of the evacuation of the besieged city of Homs began on Friday.  As reported in The Guardian: "Scores of Syrian women, children and elderly men from the besieged old city of Homs have been evacuated to safety and humanitarian supplies are expected to be allowed in in the first stage of a limited relief operation agreed between the UN and the government of President Bashar al-Assad."  The Assad government has agreed to attend the second round of Geneva II peace talks. The NGO Save The Children welcomed the deal but sees it as a temporary measure: "We need all parties to the conflict to allow immediate humanitarian assistance into Homs and other besieged areas all across Syria, from Aleppo to Damascus." [The Guardian, February 7]


Israel-Palestine

Palestinian workers from Hebron at a checkpoint. Image credit:Emil Salman; Haaretz, February 7

AIPAC and Benjamin Netanyahu are still reeling from their failed ham-handed attempt to derail the Iran nuclear negotiations.  Support for the new Iran sanctions bill is diminishing with several former cosponsors now saying they changed their mind.  So back to the main issue of concern for Israelis - how are the US sponsored negotiations with the Palestinians going?  Recent polls suggest that neither the Palestinian nor the Israeli public believes a deal can be reached.  The negotiations are stalled and the US is signaling that the original April 29 date for a final agreement is in jeopardy.  There is Palestinian anger at the ongoing Israeli permitting of illegal settlements on Palestinian land, and the destruction of Palestinian homes is at a five year high.  A key stumbling block for the Israelis is the Palestinian refusal to recognize Israel as a Jewish state.  It seems to me that one solution might be Arab and Palestinian recognition of Israel as a Jewish state combined with a recognition of the Palestinian right of return, a guarantee that Palestinians will be accorded full rights in Israel should they choose to return, and an end to settlement activity and home destruction on Palestinian lands.


Russia Today reported on Friday of the protests lodged by aid groups and the UN on the destruction of the Palestinian homes.  "In a statement Friday, 25 aid organizations said the number of demolitions went up by almost half and the displacement of Palestinians by almost three-quarters between July 2013 – when peace negotiations began again – and the end of the year, compared to the same time period in 2012.  The groups said that of the 663 Palestinian structures destroyed by Israel in 2013, 122 were constructed with international donor aid. The 663 demolitions mark the highest number in the last five years. 'International and local aid organizations have faced increasingly severe restrictions in responding to the needs created by the unlawful demolition of civilian property, in violation of Israel's obligation to facilitate the effective delivery of aid,' wrote the groups, which included Oxfam. 


On Thursday, the Israeli newspaper Haaretz reported on the meeting between "chief Palestinian negotiator Saeb Erekat  [and] U.S. Middle East peace talks envoy Martin Indyk, against a backdrop of tension between Israel and the United Sates and criticism in Jerusalem of U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry...Erekat said Thursday in an interview on Al Jazeera television that the Palestinian response to Israel’s continued construction in East Jerusalem was to join the Geneva Convention, in preparation for declaring the settlements a war crime and bringing Israel to the International Criminal Court in The Hague." 

Eurozone Recession
The Guardian reported on January 31 that  Eurozone unemployment dropped for the third straight month in January.  Overall unemployment in the Eurozone is still at 12%, ranging from ~5% in Austria and Germany to over 25% in Spain and Greece. "Youth unemployment fell by 23,000 to 3.53 million, with the youth jobless rate falling to 23.8% from 24% in November."  European policymakers are "becoming increasingly concerned about the risk of deflation, with the latest data showing inflation fell to 0.7% in January from 0.8% in December."

Food Stamp Cuts
The Republican assault on the social safety net continues.  Not only have they blocked the extension of long-term unemployment benefits - the measure fell one vote short of the required 60 to break the Senate filibuster - but they managed a big win in the cuts to the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program passed as part of the farm bill.  Mother Jones reporter Erika Eichelberger wrote on January 31 of the impending passage of the Farm Bill by the Senate with its subsequent sign-off by the President.  Both of these steps have now been executed and $8.6 billion will be taken from the food stamps program over the next 5 years.  It's less than the Tea Party wanted but double the amount in the original Senate bill.  Eichelberger explains why the compromise level of cuts is a Republican win: "In addition to the [nearly] $9 billion in food stamp cuts in this five-year farm bill, another $11 billion will be slashed over three years as stimulus funding for the program expires. The first $5 billion of that stimulus money expired in October; the rest will disappear by 2016. In the months since the first $5 billion in stimulus funding was cut, food pantries have been struggling to provide enough food for the hungry. Poverty remains at record high levels, and three job applicants compete for every job opening.And yet, despite the $5 billion in cuts that already happened and the guarantee of $6 billion more, Republicans succeeded in getting their Democratic peers to cut food stamps further."  As the non-profit Feeding America noted "The $8.6 billion cut means that 850,000 SNAP recipients will lose an average of $90 in monthly benefits. That’s not a talking point. That’s real food for families that are struggling."

Climate Change
Haven't heard much on climate change in the news recently?  You're not alone.  Tom Engelhardt bemoans the lack of coverage in a February 2 essay on the TomDispatch website.  "That the anything-but-extreme Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) offers an at least 95% guarantee of human causation for global warming is not a story, nor is the recent revelation that IPCC experts believe we only have 15 years left to rein in carbon emissions or we’ll need new technologies not yet in existence which may never be effective.  Nor is the recent poll showing that only 47% of Americans believe climate change is human-caused (a drop of 7% since 2012)...Climate change isn’t the news and it isn’t a set of news stories.  It’s the prospective end of all news.  Think of it as the anti-news."




Link
Food bank locator - find a food bank in your area - from the Feeding America website

Here We Go Again - the Debt Ceiling Follies

The Republicans are gearing up for another go at the social safety net as a bargaining chip in raising the debt ceiling.  Of all the phony crises generated by this gang, this one appears to have the broadest appeal outside the wing nut faction.  People's memories being short and the number of safe Republican House seats being what they are, there's plenty of time for them to shut down the government before the mid-term elections.  Whether they have the stomach for another shutdown is anyone's guess.  Obama has said he will not negotiate policies based on the debt ceiling and so the stage is set.  Here for your enjoyment is everything you really need to know about the national debt. 


The US has been in debt every year since its founding with the one exception of 1835.  Public debt has been the norm, not only in the US but in nearly all countries, for the past 200 years.  The sad fact is that much of the public debt has been undertaken to finance wars. 


US public debt as a percentage of GDP (72.5%) is about in the middle of the pack - the world average is 64%.  Of the 10 largest economies, the developing BRIC nations (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) have a lower ratio.  The remaining nations in the top 10 - i.e., the large advanced industrial economies of Japan, Germany, Italy, France, and the UK- have a higher percentage of debt to GDP than does the US. 


The national debt, currently in the range of $17 trillion is not the same as the budget deficit.  The budget deficit is the difference between annual expenditures and revenues.  The national debt is the accumulation of the annual deficits plus bonds issued in support of wars.  The deficit for 2014, $514 billion, will be the smallest since 2007 - i.e., since before the economic collapse of the Great Recession. 


Basically, if Congress does not raise the debt ceiling, the US will either default on its debt (shorting its creditors) or not spend money on previously budgeted programs (stiffing its citizens). 


Until recently, raising the debt ceiling was a routine procedure.  It's been done about 90 times since 1917, when the debt ceiling was first defined.  From 1979 until Republicans gained control of House of Representatives in the 1994 elections, the ceiling was automatically raised by a parliamentary rule (the "Gephardt rule") whenever a budget was passed.


The most notorious debt ceiling debacle was in 2011, after Republicans took control of the House of Representatives.  The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 2000 points over the July-August time frame after US credit rating was downgraded for the first time in its history.  (Hmm, are we seeing a trend here?)


The debt ceiling "crisis" exists because Republicans have chosen to make it so.  It can be solved immediately by the single step of going back to the Gephardt rule - automatically raising the debt ceiling when a budget is passed. 


If Congress can't bring itself to pass this common sense solution and must look other places to get our deficit and debt under control, here are a few suggestions.

• Increase the maximum earned income limit on Social Security. 
• Introduce another surcharge on household incomes over one million dollars but make it applicable to dividends and capital gains as well as earned income.
• Reduce wasteful and exorbitant military spending to pre-Cold War levels. In 2013 dollars this would be about 100 billion dollars - a savings of 500 billion dollars annually.  This step alone would just about wipe out our current deficit.

Useful links


America's Staggering Defense Budget [Washington Post, January 7, 2013 blog]


List of Countries by Public Debt [Wikipedia]

Sunday Round-Up - February 2, 2014

 

Being generous of spirit is a wonderful way to live.
Read more at http://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/authors/p/pete_seeger.html#VmFfacgEv5oWbgDW.99

 Being generous of spirit is a wonderful way to live. - Pete Seeger

This is the weekly selection of news and opinion from outside American mainstream media.  Today we remember Pete Seeger, look at the Year of the Horse, and, in brief, the Syrian peace talks, the surprise cover of the Rolling Stone, and John Kerry's quest for an Israeli-Palestinian peace agreement.

Folk singer and activist Pete Seeger passed away on January 27 at the age 94.  Infamously blacklisted after his appearance before the McCarthy-era "House Un-American Activities Committee", he was a tireless advocate for workers, civil rights, the environment and peace.  Pete Seeger influenced generations of songwriters.  "Once called 'America's tuning fork,' Pete Seeger believed deeply in the power of song," President Barack Obama said in a statement on Tuesday. "Over the years, Pete used his voice—and his hammer—to strike blows for worker's rights and civil rights; world peace and environmental conservation. And he always invited us to sing along." [Mother Jones, Jan 28]  Mother Jones has a phenomenal musical tribute to Pete Seeger which you can reach by clicking this link.  For more on his appearance before HUAC and the "black list", see Corey Robin's excellent post of January 29.  Pete Seeger was a genuine force for good and he will be missed.




The Year of the Horse has begun.  Lunar (aka Chinese) New Year celebrations started January 31 with as many as 2 billion people joining in across the globe - particularly in the Far East.  The celebrations continue for 15 days.  In China alone 3.62 billion journeys are expected to be taken in the 40 day period surrounding the New Year. "The staggering figure of passengers is set to make Chunyun, which literally means Spring Festival, transportation the largest seasonal human migration on the globe." [Xinhua news agency]  According to Chinese Zodiac lore, "People born in the year of the horse are said to be a bit like horses: animated, active and energetic – they love being in a crowd. They are quick to learn independence – foals can walk minutes after birth – and they have a straightforward and positive attitude towards life. They are known for their communication skills and are exceedingly witty." [The Guardian, January 31]

(Lunar New Year images appeared in the International Business Times and are by Reuters)

In Brief

The first round of peace talks to end Syria’s civil war have concluded with little tangible progress to speak of, delegates said Friday, as rights groups reported nearly 1,900 deaths in Syria as the summit was being held in Switzerland.  A second round has been scheduled to start February 10. [Al Jazeera, January 31]

Pope Francis made it to "the cover of the Rolling Stone".  A feature-length article on "a man whose obvious humility, empathy and, above all, devotion to the economically disenfranchised has come to feel perfectly suited to our times" appears in the February 13 issue. [Rolling Stone website, January 28]


US Secretary of State John Kerry and an elite team of US diplomats return to Israel as goals shift for the US's once-ambitious peace plan.  [The Guardian, January 30]

Do you know the difference between education and experience? Education is when you read the fine print; experience is what you get when you don't. 

- Pete Seeger