Our Closest Call

I'm going out on a limb here but I'll predict that the world will not end on December 21, 2012. The Mayan calendar does end on that date but that is about all that does. The hype surrounding the Mayan calendar sold a few books and spawned a few apocalyptic movies. But nothing, literally, is on the horizon that would support the end-of-world premise.  We do not appear to be heading for an extinction event this year.  But through the long history of our planet, there have been at least five extinction events, i.e., periods during which the majority of species are made extinct. Over the past 500 million years, these have occurred an average of once every 100 million years. 

The most famous and most recent, but not the most destructive, of these events occurred 65 million years ago. The asteroid strike in the Yucatan caused the end of the age of the reptiles including the destruction of the dinosaurs. Discovered in the late 1970's, the Chixculub crater measures more than 110 miles in diameter. It is both a reminder of the fragility of life on this planet and of the good fortune of the small mammals that survived and from which humanity eventually evolved.

The most destructive extinction event occurred about 250 million years ago. “The Great Dying” saw 96% of all ocean species and 80% of all land species extinguished. Although we cannot be certain, it appears that this event was likely a combination of events. Possible culprits include a nearby supernova, environmental changes wrought by the formation of a super-continent, the devastating impact of a large asteroid -- or some combination of these.

Bad as these events were, they were not mankind's closest call. That honor goes to the Lake Toba Volcano eruption about 73,000 years ago. Looks pretty peaceful now, doesn't it?

(Photo is from the Wayfaring.Info website.)

Don't be fooled by Lake Toba's current placid appearance. Seventy-three thousand years ago, an eruption here in northern Sumatra in Indonesia led to a ten-year “volcanic winter”. The Toba event is believed to be the most powerful volcano in the last two million years. It spewed out 28 times the debris of the largest historically recorded volcanic eruption at Mount Tambora in 1815. The Mount Tambora eruption led to “The Year Without a Summer” in 1816, so called because of its impact on North American and European weather.

The Toba eruption and the ensuing “volcanic winter” reduced the human population to as low as 1,000 breeding pairs scattered in small pockets across the globe. Had the eruption been stronger, mankind may have been completely wiped out. I wouldn't be here writing this nor would you be there reading it. What species would take our place? Would the Earth have to wait another 2-3 million years before another land mammal evolved to reach the threshold of self-conscious intelligence? Would dolphins or whales evolve to fill the “consciousness” niche? If so, would a water-based intelligence be capable of creating a technological society? Would dinosaurs make a comeback? Would a hive mind eventually achieve higher intelligence? Or would the Earth remain forever devoid of self-conscious intelligent life?

So back to why the world won't end come this December. Looking over the extinction events of the past half billion years, we see that they were due to massive climate shifts or to large changes in ocean levels. These climate and ocean level shifts were caused in turn by several types of large-scale catastrophic events – changing supercontinent tectonics, volcanic eruptions, supernovae, and asteroid/near-Earth-object impacts. 

Supercontinent tectonics shouldn't come into play any time soon - the supercontinent implicated in the “Great Dying” formed some 300,000 years ago and had the land mass of all the existing continents combined.

While it's impossible to predict massive volcanic eruptions, suffice it to say that the Lake Toba eruption was the largest in at least two million years. 

 

As for a supernova (an exploding giant star) wiping out the Earth, if the dying star is close enough and massive enough and has a suitable companion star, there is nothing that could possibly stop it from bringing civilization to an end. The good news is that the most likely nearby star that can cause this devastation is predicted to go into its final death phase in 10,000,000 years.

 

Near-earth objects then are probably the most likely short-term scenario for wide-spread earthly destruction. There are about 1 million asteroids of a kilometer or more diameter and there are 10,000 asteroids of the size that brought down the dinosaurs. Near-Earth objects are already monitored and tracked closely by NASA and others. Contingency plans are being developed for how to deal with any threats. These plans generally involve nudging the asteroid slightly off its collision course. There are a couple of potentially destruction-wreaking NEO's in our future but we have decades to prepare:

• On April 13, 2029, asteroid 2004 MN4 will fly past Earth only 18,600 miles (30,000 km) above the ground. For comparison, geosynchronous satellites orbit at 22,300 miles (36,000 km). This is a 300 meter asteroid and could take out an area the size of Texas if it hit. As of now, though, astrophysicists are saying that it has no chance of hitting the Earth.

• The 460-foot asteroid 2011 AG5 is estimated to have a 1 in 625 chance of hitting the Earth on February 5, 2040. For comparison, the asteroid that flattened the land around the Tungaska River in Siberia in 1908 was 30-60 ft in diameter.

So it doesn't appear that we should fear extinction as a species anytime soon. Of course, we can always destroy ourselves quickly in a nuclear holocaust or slowly with unaddressed global warming. And what a waste that would be.

A Note for Sci-Fi Fans

I love speculative fiction. It deals with the most mind-boggling concepts imaginable in an engaging way. For an interesting read on a universe where dinosaurs are the dominant intelligent species, see Robert Sawyer's Quintaglio Ascension Trilogy (Far Seer, Fossil Hunter, Foreigner) . Orson Scott Card's Ender's Saga (particularly Ender's Game, Speaker for the Dead, Xenocide, and Children of the Mind) provides, among many, many other things, an exploration of the intelligence of a hive mind. Intelligent dolphins appear several times in David Brin's Uplift anf Uplift Storm trilogies, most notably in Startide Rising. Finally, Charles Sheffield's Aftermath shows the havoc resulting after Sol's nearest neighbor, the twin star system at Alpha Centauri, goes supernova.

Change and The Future of Rock'n'Roll

After more than 90 posts on political subjects, I'm taking a break. Beginning with this post and for the next several months, The Left Bank Cafe is shifting focus to other topics – cultural, scientific, philosophical, and whatever else seems interesting.

The website face has been changed. That's a photo of the Mediterranean from Salis beach between Antibes and Cap d'Antibes in the header. It replaces the Hawaiian sunset of former times. I've provided a few “Essential Links” where you can keep up with progressive political commentary and can do some fact-checking when the rumor mills start spinning and the liars start lying.  I'll add to these links from time-to-time.  Besides these “essential links”, The Left Bank Cafe will occasionally provide links to noteworthy posts on current events.

Please join in the conversation. Any and all comments are, as always, welcome – even if it's just a Facebook-ish “Like” or a Siskel-and-Ebert-ish “Two Thumbs Down”. Also, if you want to suggest a topic or start a discussion, just put it in a comment.

The Future of Rock'n'Roll

"I've seen the future of Rock'n'Roll and it's name is Bruce Springsteen." Thirty eight years ago, in May 1974, rock writer Jon Landau wrote these prophetic and now famous words after he saw the twenty-five year old Springsteen perform at Harvard Square Theater in Cambrdige, Massachusetts. The future indeed. For some perspective, thirty-eight years is about two-thirds of the length of time that rock musicians have entertained the planet. “The Boss” is still going strong. His seventeenth studio album, Wrecking Ball, was released in March. He still sells out the largest arenas in days or hours. And it's not just old classic rock fans like me that show up.  Springsteen's fans cover a wide spectrum of ages. 

Rock has been a dominant genre in pop music since the mid-50's. It has evolved over the years but the best has had an edginess, an optimism and a power to it. It has continually presented a rebellious challenge to the status quo, a counter-culture if you will. It's been there all my life and I've been there for all of its.

Rock's staying power has been exceptional for popular music.  Teenagers today can still relate to a music genre that started more than 40 years before they were born.  Think about it - that's like saying I could relate as a contemporary to the popular music of the nineteen-aughts. 

So the question for the moment is: if Springsteen was the future of rock'n'roll in 1974, who is the future of rock in 2012? The aging standard bearers can't keep touring forever. Is there anyone out there who can take their place? Will rock evolve to keep attracting new generations without losing its core musical values and forgetting its roots? Or is rock going to go the way of the 1920's New Orleans jazz music playing in small, museum-like venues like Preservation Hall?

As for Springsteen's Wrecking Ball, it is a powerful concept album with the songs performed in a wide range of styles and in major and minor keys. It is not an easy album. Per the Rolling Stone review: “Wrecking Ball is the most despairing, confrontational, and musically turbulent album Bruce Springsteen has ever made. He is angry and accusing in these songs.... The America here is a scorched earth: razed by profiteers, and suffering a shameful erosion in truly democratic values and national charity.”

Okay it's angry and not easy but, boy, does it ever rock when it has to. Musically turbulent it certainly is – from the driving, Celtic rhythms of “Death to My Hometown” and “American Land” to the haunting soul/gospel/rap strains in “Rocky Ground” to the twangy Western guitar in “We Are Alive” to the reproachful rocker “We Take Care of Our Own” to the title track where the first chords and Bruce's raspy voice make you wonder if you've somehow wandered into a Bob Dylan album.

If you haven't already heard the album, there are numerous YouTube videos/audios of the song tracks that will give you a feel for the album. Here's one to get you started: Death to My Hometown.

First Rock'n'Roll Song

If you're a believer that Columbus discovered America since it was his voyages that threw open the New World, then you'd probably vote for one of two songs recorded in 1954 - Bill Haley's “Rock Around the Clock” (which eventually took the top spot on the Billboard charts in July 1955) or the then-unknown Elvis Presley's version of Alfred Crudup's “That's All Right (Mama)”.

On the other hand, if you're a believer that the Vikings deserve the honors for discovering the New World since they landed several hundred years earlier, then you might have a different view. Before rock'n'roll burst onto the national music scene in the mid-fifties, there were numerous songs that might lay claim to the title of the first rock'n'roll song. These early songs were usually recorded and performed by black musicians. Probably the leading contender in this camp is the Alfred Crudup's original1946 recording of “That's All Right, Mama.”  The mental floss website nicely presents the case for five such early recordings.

Well, here's hoping for another 50 or so years (at least) before the last rock'n'roll song is recorded.

Random Stuff

Greatest thing since sliced bread...sliced bread was invented in 1928.  "White Bread", Aaron Bobrow-Strain, reviewed in The Altantic Monthly, July/August 2012.

"They paved paradise and put up a parking lot." - Joni Mitchell, "Big Yellow Taxi"

The latest count is 1713 square miles of American parking lot. "Rethinking a Lot", Eran Ben-Joseph, reviewed in The Altantic Monthly, July/August 2012.  Note: this is 100 square miles more than the combined areas of Rhode Island and the District of Columbia.

Besides the Vikings, another contender for setting foot in America before Columbus is the Chinese.  This controversial theory was resparked by Gavin Menzies' 2002 book "1421: The Year the Chinese Discovered America."  You can read more in the New York Times June 25, 2005 article linked here.

A Deafening Silence

If there was ever a time that spoke to the intimidating power of NRA money, this is it.  If there was ever a time when the poisoning influence of political funding was apparent, this is it.  NRA's millions in campaign donations over the years have effectively silenced all debate on rational gun laws in this country.  Even after this weekend's tragedy, only a few politicians, such as New Jersey's Frank Lautenberg, are calling for tightening the nation's gun laws.  Even in something as basic as renewing the ban on assault weapons, Congress is intimidated. 

You can pretty much expect the Republican choir to sing out variations on the insane refrain that "guns don't kill people, people kill people."  Frankly, I'm not sure how 70 people would have been stabbed and 12 of them killed in Colorado if the deranged young man had attacked with a knife.  Many leading Democrats are also sitting this out for now.  An aide to Senate Majority Leader Reid says that the press of other business may prevent the Senate from taking up Lautenberg's legislation in the immediate future.  President Obama, whose ever shrinking lead over Romney has to be a cause of concern, has asked that we not "politicize" this tragedy. An Obama aide said that the focus should be on keeping guns out of the hands of people who shouldn't have them by enforcing the existing gun laws.  Evidently this was not sufficient and did nothing to prevent the Colorado tragedy.

 In a hard-hitting HuffPost blog on Saturday, Cenk Uygur asks if we do not "politicize" guns now, then when?  What can you say about a country that's number 1 in per capita gun ownership, in child deaths by gunfire, and in overall gun violence?

Maybe politicization is not the right word.  We are long past that point.  The NRA has politicized gun control over the past few decades and they will not stop sending their millions to those that oppose gun control legislation.  Mayors Against Illegal Guns  stand in opposition to the NRA but have had only limited success in achieving any legislative victories. 

Maybe leadership is the right word.  That is what is needed now.  A leader shows people the way when they do not see it for themselves.  A leader stands up to moneyed interests and calls them out on their self-serving claims.  So far though...a deafening silence.

The Insane Military Budget

Fifty-one years ago,  Republican Dwight Eisenhower, the thirty-fourth President of the United States, warned against the increasing militarization of the United States in his famous speech on the "military-industrial complex."  John F. Kennedy, the thirty-fifth President of the United States, once wrote in a letter to a Navy friend that "War will exist until the distant day when the conscientious objector enjoys the same reputation and prestige as the warrior does today."

Neither Eisenhower's warning nor Kennedy's vision have gained much of a foothold in the last half-century - this despite the end of the Cold War, despite the disastrous wars in Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan, despite the misguided military incursions and interference in the internal affairs of Latin American countries, despite the trillions of dollars of expenditures, despite the tens of thousands of American lives and hundreds of thousands of foreign lives lost. 

Militarism has powerful and influential supporters in government.  Large swaths of the populace confuse it with patriotism.  The so-called defense industry has long provided a home for retiring politicians who can effectively act as lobbyists for the industry.  Republicans will cut just about every program imaginable except the bloated military budget.  Democrats, ever fearful of seeming not militaristic enough, have been ineffective at best and complicit at worst.  Neo-con dreams of an American Empire based on military intervention still gets a welcome hearing in many corners and the drumbeat for war with Iran is starting to be played by many of the same actors who misled us into Iraq. 

It's time for this to stop.  The money that is currently spent on paying for wars - past. present, and future - is totally out of control and totally unrelated to any real dangers that we now face.  This graphic from The Economist says it all:



The Economist notes that United States military spending in 2010 was more than the next seventeen nations combined. And this is using an official figure of $700 bn, which is not the whole story by a long shot. 

As Chris Hellman explained at TomDispatch.com, the Fiscal Year 2012 Pentagon budget starting at an official figure of $703 bn rises rapidly when we see the other military-related spending squirreled away in departments other than Defense or related to past wars and military expenditures.

Official Pentagon budget: 703 bn$
Counter-terrorism and homeland security: + 62 bn$
National Intelligence Program funding: + 53 bn$
Veteran programs:hospital,medical, disability, education: + 129 bn$
Other direct security spending (for example, military aid): + 18 bn$
Military and DOD pensions: +  69 bn$
Interest on debt for past Pentagon spending: +185 bn$

Total military-related spending = 1219 bn$ or 1.219 trillion dollars

The 1.2 trillion dollars is just under 1/3 of the total budget proposal for FY 2012 (~$3.75 trillion).  In other words, one of every three dollars in the 2012 budget is spent on the military.  Coincidentally (or maybe not), this 1.2 trillion dollars approximates the FY 2012 projected budget deficit ($1.1 - $1.3 trillion). 

Any rational and humane discussion aimed at reducing the deficit must start here.  Before we cut heating fuel subsidies, shred the food stamp program, slash Medicaid, underfund health care reform, increase student loan interest rates, privatize Social Security and end Medicare as we know it, we must address this out-of-control military spending.